About Time

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About Time

• Facing the end of fossil fuels

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Our ignorance is not so vast as our failure to
use what we know.
M. King Hubbert
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Shifting Time

• 17th century
• Archbishop Ussher earth formed in 4004 BC
• 18th century
• Count Buffon 75 thousand years
• 19th century
• Lord Kelvin 98 million years
• 20th century
• 4.5 billion years

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Big Questions

• How long are we here for?
• How much energy do we need?
• How much energy do we have?
• How quickly can we change?

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Business as usual

• Energy consumption is growing at ½ the rate of
  long term economic growth
• Global economic growth rate is 4
• Global energy growth rate is 2
• Current global oil consumption rate is
  31GBbl/yr, 1GBbl every 12 days

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Consumption at 2/year
4T BBL
Total consumption doubles every 35
years Maintaining BAU will require 7 T BBL of
oil this century
2T BBL
1T BBL
1T BBL
2035
2070
2105
1858 to 2000
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USGS/EIA Estimates of Supply
Reserves 5.5 Trillion Bbl Requirement 7
Trillion Bbl
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USGS/EIA Projections
Conventional Oil
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Changing Views IEA

• IEA undertook its first ground up analysis of
  energy production in 2008
• Estimates for growth of oil production trimmed
  from 120 Mbpd to 105 Mbpd
• IEA calls for investment of 28 Trillion to
  maintain growth

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IEA 2008 Revised Oil Forecast
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IEA Whistleblowers

• "The 120m figure always was nonsense but even
  today's number is much higher than can be
  justified and the IEA knows this.
• "Many inside the organisation believe that
  maintaining oil supplies at even 90m to 95m
  barrels a day would be impossible but there are
  fears that panic could spread on the financial
  markets if the figures were brought down
  further.
• Key oil figures were distorted by US pressure,
  says whistleblower Nov. 9, 2009, guardian.co.uk

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Alternate Views - ASPO
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World Production to 2009
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Additions to Supply
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Lloyds of London

• Traditional fossil fuel resources face serious
  supply constraints and an oil supply crunch is
  likely in the short-to-medium term with profound
  consequences for the way in which business
  functions today.
• - Lloyds 360 Risk Insight

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Oil Executives say

• Christophe de Margerie, head of the French oil
  giant Total, flatly declared that the "optimistic
  case" for maximum daily output was 100 million
  barrels
• Royal Dutch Shell's CEO, Jeroen van der Veer
  "after 2015 supplies of easy-to-access oil and
  gas will no longer keep up with demand."

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US Joint Forces say

• By 2012, surplus oil production capacity could
  entirely disappear, and as early as 2015, the
  shortfall in output could reach nearly 10 MBD.
• The Joint Operating Environment (JOE) 2008
• United States Joint Forces Command Center for
  Joint Futures

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Three reasons for Peak Oil

1. Few large fields, many small fields
2. Increasing capital costs
3. Declining energy return on energy investment

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1 Dependence on giant fields

• Over half of our oil production comes from 130
  giant, aging oil fields
• Remainder comes from about 4500 currently active
  fields
• As giant fields decline they will have to be
  replaced by many smaller fields
• Exploration rates and investment will have to
  increase

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1 Dependence on giant fields
Giant Oil Fields Reserve Adds Dropping Every
Decade Since the 1960s
Sources AAPG Memoirs, Oil and Gas Journal,
Rigzone, RJ Research estimates and analysis
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2 Increasing capital costs

• At up to 100 million, deepwater wells cost 10
  times more to develop than onshore wells
• Nonconventional oil is even more expensive
• Share of global capital allocated to oil will
  have to rise

Oil Province Capital Cost per bbl/day
Saudi Conventional Wells 4,000
Saudi New Development 16,000
Kashgan Giant Field 93,000
Alberta Tar Sands 143,000
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3 Declining EROI

• Conventional oil 201
• Tar Sands 51

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3 Declining EROI
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The downward slope

• Likely too late to start mitigation before peak
• Rate of decline is unpredictable
• Peak may be masked by economic recessions
• Mitigation strategies will take decades to
  implement

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World energy use
Fossil Fuels 85
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Mitigation vechicle efficiency

• Vehicle efficiency
• Mpg standards could be doubled
• 20 year replacement time for auto fleet
• Efficiency offset by growth in car ownership
• Efficiency potential is limited
• Engines at near practical limits
• Aerodynamics are largest problem
• Solution is small, lighter and slower

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Mitigation Fuel substitution

• Coal-to-Liquids/Gas-to-liquids
• Half of the energy content of coal consumed in
  the conversion process
• GHG emissions effectively double
• URC Coal reserves being revised downward
• Additional demand would reduce them faster

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Climate Change

• it is feasible to keep atmospheric CO2 from
  exceeding about 450 ppm by 2100, provided that
  emissions from coal and unconventional fossil
  fuels are constrained.
• James E Hansen, Implications of peak oil for
  atmospheric CO2 and climate

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Climate Change

• Peak oil will not prevent climate change
• But IPCC worst case emission scenarios may not be
  realistic

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Time is running out

• We are exhausting our non-renewable energy
  resources to destroy our renewable resources
• Within a century we will be left with neither
• The rate at which we can adapt is likely to be
  slower than the rate of energy decline