Kai Virtanen, Tuomas Raivio and

1
Influence Diagram Modeling of Decision Making in
a Dynamic Game Setting

• Kai Virtanen, Tuomas Raivio and
• Raimo P. Hämäläinen
• Systems Analysis Laboratory
• Helsinki University of Technology

2
Maneuvering decisions in one-on-one air combat
game
¼
tDt
tDt
Decision maker (DM)
¼
t0
t0
Adversary (AD)
Find the best maneuvering sequence for the DM
with respect to the goals 1. Avoid being
captured by the AD 2. Capture the AD by taking
into account - Preferences of a pilot -
Uncertainties - Dynamic decision environment -
Behavior of the AD

• Influence diagrams (IDs) representing
• the control decision of the DM
• Single stage ID (Virtanen et al. 1999),
• pilots short-term decision making
• Multistage ID (Virtanen et al. 2001),
• preference optimal flight paths against given
  trajectories
• a nonlinear programming -based solution
  approach

3
ID for a single control decision
Adversary's Present State
Adversary's Maneuver
Adversarys State
Measurement
Combat State
Present Measurement
Present Combat State
Situation Evaluation
State
Present State
Maneuver
Present Threat Situation Assessment
Threat Situation Assessment

• Evolution of the players states described by a
  set of differential equations
• Solution The control leading to the highest
  expected utility
• The behavior of the AD ?

4
ID game for a single control decision
DMs belief about ADs viewpoint
Implies information structure
Combat state


DM's viewpoint