Evolution of q13 limits

1
A look at q13issuesMaury GoodmanArgonne
National Lab

• Evolution of q13 limits
• Generalities
• Specific Experiments

2
A notation issue

• q12, q13, q23 are labels,
• Dm2jk are ordered (sign)
• Some think q12 goes with Dm212 no
• Much slopply notation in the literature
• We know the sign of Dm221 but not Dm232
• Dm232 Dm231 will be good for several editions,
  but not forever

• Dm212 ? m12 m22
• Dm221 ? m22 m12
• Dm213 ? m12 m32
• Dm231 ? m32 m12
• Dm223 ? m22 m32
• Dm232 ? m32 m22
• Dm212 Dm223 Dm231 0

3
A trivial issue

• q13 limits are expressed several different ways
• Several factors of 2
• Confusion is possible
• Ue32 sin2q13 ½ sin2qme 1/4 sin22q13

4
Real issues

• Dm232
• Degeneracies and correlations
• Mass hierarchy, q23 quadrant, d
• Assumption that n and n paradigm ok
• Detector sizes (related to costs)
• Detector schedules
• Beam intensity assumptions about future
• Beam polarity assumptions

5
Evolution of q13Caveats needed!
100
90 CL
Be Careful
6
Another one Globes
7
Dm22010 Change in the CHOOZ limit

• CHOOZ limit curve has not changed
• CHOOZ limit in 2008 PDG is sin22?13 lt 0.19
• You also see 0.10, 0.11, 0.14, 0.15, 0.20,
• PDG was at 2.0 10-3 eV2 based on 1s low Super-K
  Dm232 (best fit was in footnote)
• For 2010 PDG, sin22?13 lt 0.15 based on MINOS best
  fit Dm2322.43 10-3 eV2 1s low value (0.16) is
  in footnote

8
q23

• sin22q23 gt 0.96
• 0.70lt2sin2q23lt1.24
• 1.8 !

!
9
Correlations degeneracies

• One perfect measurement of P(nm?ne) and P(nm?ne)
• 8 possible values of sin2(2q13)

10
The relevant experiments

• MINOS
• Opera ICARUS (?)
• Double Chooz
• RENO
• Daya Bay
• T2K
• NOvA

• Irrelevant experiments
• MiniBooNE
• Minerva
• Microboone
• Possibly relevant
• Atmospheric
• Solar

11
Double Chooz
12
RENO (South Korea)
Reactor Experiment for Neutrino Oscillations at
YoungGwang in Korea
13
Reno schedule

• 3 year
• Start February 2011
• Oct 2010 estimate

14
Daya Bay
From NuFACT 10
15
MINOS 7e20
15

• Based on ND data, expect 49.17.0(stat.)2.7(syst
  .)
• See 54 events, a 0.7s excess

16
NOvA schedule
17
T2K
18
Conclusion

• Care is needed when comparing q13 limits and
  future estimated sensitivities
• I think an analysis which takes all of these
  things into account as a function of time is
  possible, but I havent seen one.