Report 75.0 - 1st Quarter Release -

1
Report 75.0- 1st Quarter Release -

• Johannesburg
• 14 May 2014

2
General

• Local Developments
• Media Inflation Watch Up-date 2013
• Media Inflation Watch revealed Radio as the most
  aggressive platform from a rate perspective up
  11.54 yoy.
• With declining circulation, however, and an
  absence of support / research from the key
  players in print, the published inflation data
  must be raising value concerns.

3

• AMPS / JICs and the rest!
• With the latest AMPS hot into the market, many
  marketers and perhaps publishers have perhaps
  taken their collective eye off the future of what
  will become of AMPS in its new establishment
  survey role. PAMS has still to be agreed, its
  content decided and funding issues remain the
  elephant in the room.
• What is clear is that the TV broadcasters are now
  driving the process and even siblings such as
  radio appear now to be an afterthought.
• Print has a powerful story to tell as proven over
  the passing of Nelson Mandela and recently
  demonstrated via Millward Browns independent
  research.
• Print research going forward must demonstrate the
  value of print and not just the quantum. Value is
  determined by return on investment and not just
  the rates charged..
• Finally, in respect of the research, we should
  remember that digital is the new print ink, and
  not a competitor. The future for print in Africa
  will be a combination of both written delivery
  methods.

4

• International Developments
• Print Only readership holding its own in the
  USA
• A new analysis (Feb 2014) of the most recent
  newspaper audience reports suggests a surprising
  split in reading habits. Digital audience
  continues to grow. Mobile audience is growing
  quickly. Mobile-only audience, though much
  smaller, has grown to 7 million.
• Yet more than half of newspaper audience 54
  percent still read their local papers news
  report only in print.
• The daily circulation gains (3) however were
  entirely driven by digital gains at the largest
  newspapers.
• Sunday gains also reflected the heavy use of
  Sunday Select products packets of inserts to
  non-subscribers by larger papers.

5
Rule Amendments effective 1st January 2014

• PDF Replica Editions
• Paid Circulation circulation is counted when
  payment is received.
• Bulk sales The publisher must prove
  distribution in terms of a list provided by the
  purchaser limited to 10 of total paid
  circulation.
• Free bulk distribution is excluded.
•  

6
Membership Statistics
7
Sector size ranked by circulation Quarter 1
2014
8
Overall Economic Perspective
Comment Real GDP at market prices increased by
1.9 in 2013. The main increase was in Finance,
Real Estate Business. Retail sales grew by 2.2
year on year in February 2014.The main increase
was in Textiles, Clothing, Footwear and Leather.
9
4 Year Total Newspaper Circulation Trend by
Quarter
Comment Total Newspaper circulation increased by
20,000 compared to the previous quarter.
10
4 Year Category Trend by QuarterDaily Newspapers

• Comment
• Circulation has declined annually by 4.5 since
  2010, equivalent to
• 304,000 copies.
• However, Q1 remained static, compared to Q4.

11
4 Year Trend Analysis by Language Daily
Newspapers

• Comment
• English titles have declined by 4.7 annually
  (232, 000 copies) over the period.
• Afrikaans titles have declined by 6.5 annually
  (87,000 copies) over the period.
• Vernacular titles have increased by 3.5 (15,000
  copies) over the period.

12
4 Year Trend Analysis Coastal vs Inland Daily
Newspapers
Comment Inland circulation declined annually by
4.7 (208,000 copies) over the period. Coastal
circulation declined annually by 4. (96,000
copies) over the period. Q1 increased by 20,000
copies compared to Q4.
13
Titles Showing Largest GrowthDaily Newspapers
No Publication Name TOTAL CIRCULATION Corresponding Previous Period Variance - Prior Year Previous Quarter Variance - Previous Quarter
1 Daily Dispatch 30,199 28,879 4,57 25,521 18,33
2 Isolezwe 119,846 116,186 3,15 107,119 11,88
14
Titles Showing Largest DeclineDaily Newspapers
No Publication Name TOTAL CIRCULATION Corresponding Previous Period Variance - Prior Year Previous Quarter Variance - Previous Quarter
1 Citizen, The (Daily) 57,385 63,854 -10,13 58,735 -2,30
2 Cape Argus 30,319 33,247 -8,81 30,204 0,38
3 Son (Daily) 84,87 92,213 -7,96 86,837 -2,27
15
New Members / RemovalsDaily Newspapers
16
4 Year Category Trend by QuarterWeekly
Newspapers

• Comment
• Weekly newspapers reflect an erratic performance.
• Q1, however, declined by 2.5 (13,000 copies)
  compared to Q4.

17
Titles Showing Largest GrowthWeekly Newspapers
No Publication Name TOTAL CIRCULATION Corresponding Previous Period Variance - Prior Year Previous Quarter Variance - Previous Quarter
1 Soccer Laduma 317,013 289,654 9,45 307,275 3,17
18
Titles Showing Largest DeclineWeekly Newspapers
No Publication Name TOTAL CIRCULATION Corresponding Previous Period Variance - Prior Year Previous Quarter Variance - Previous Quarter
1 Motorsport World 4,997 6,143 -18,66 8,227 -39,26
2 Ilanga 100,853 117,115 -13,89 95,994 5,06
3 Mail Guardian 44,266 45,279 -2,24 51,551 -14,13
19
New Members / RemovalsWeekly Newspapers
20
4 Year Category Trend by QuarterWeekend
Newspapers

• Comment
• Circulation has declined annually by 5 (485,000
  copies) over the period.
• Q1, however, only declined by 1.8 (34,000
  copies) compared to Q4.

21
4 Year Trend Analysis by LanguageWeekend
Newspapers

• Comment
• English titles have declined annually by 5.5
  (367,000 copies) over the period.
• Afrikaans titles have declined annually by 8
  (193,000 copies) over the period.
• Vernacular titles have grown annually by 11.6
  (76,000 copies) over the period.

22
Titles Showing Largest GrowthWeekend Newspapers
No Publication Name TOTAL CIRCULATION Corresponding Previous Period Variance - Prior Year Previous Quarter Variance - Previous Quarter
1 Saturday Dispatch 22,109 20,450 8,11 20,679 6,92

23
Titles Showing Largest DeclineWeekend Newspapers
No Publication Name TOTAL CIRCULATION Corresponding Previous Period Variance - Prior Year Previous Quarter Variance - Previous Quarter
1 Rapport 177,016 210,675 -15,98 187,288 -5,48
2 Beeld, Saturday 55,26 65,645 -15,82 58,411 -5,39
3 Volksblad Saturday 17,913 20,234 -11,47 18,286 -2,04
4 Ilanga Langesonto 55,224 61,918 -10,81 56,074 -1,52
5 Pretoria News Saturday 10,177 11,382 -10,59 10,126 0,50
6 Son op Sondag (formerly Sondag Son) 50,186 55,885 -10,20 54,625 -8,13
24
New Members / RemovalsWeekend Newspapers
25
4 Year Category Trend by QuarterLocal Newspapers

• Comment
• Local Newspapers have declined by 2.8 (63,000
  copies) over the period.
• Q1 increased by 11,000 copies compared to Q4.

26
Titles Showing Largest GrowthLocal Newspapers
No Publication Name TOTAL CIRCULATION Corresponding Previous Period Variance - Prior Year Previous Quarter Variance - Previous Quarter
1 Review Midweek 2,976 2,311 28,78 2,738 8,69
2 Capricorn Voice 5,975 5,186 15,21 5,693 4,95
3 Lowvelder, The / Laevelder, Die ( Tuesday) 14,697 13,258 10,85 13,686 7,39

27
Titles Showing Largest DeclineLocal Newspapers
No Publication Name TOTAL CIRCULATION Corresponding Previous Period Variance - Prior Year Previous Quarter Variance - Previous Quarter
1 The Mail 12,673 16,834 -24,72 12,637 0,28
2 Standerton Advertiser 3,052 3,563 -14,34 3,199 -4,60
3 Rustenburg Herald 22,397 25,606 -12,53 21,874 2,39
28
New Members / RemovalsLocal Newspapers
29
4 Year Category Trend by QuarterHybrid
Newspapers

• Comment
• Circulation shows a dramatic decline as a result
  of The Times moving to Daily Newspapers in Q4.
• Q1 remained static compared to Q4.

30
New Members / RemovalsHybrid Newspapers
31
4 Year Category Trend by QuarterFree Newspapers

• Comment
• Distribution has increased annually by 7.1
  (1,513,000 copies) over the period.
• Q1 increased by 53,000 copies compared to
  Q4.

32
New Members / RemovalsFree Newspapers
33
Titles Showing Largest GrowthFree Newspapers
No Publication Name TOTAL CIRCULATION Corresponding Previous Period Variance - Prior Year Previous Quarter Variance - Previous Quarter
1 Northern Eyethu 21360 6002 255,88 21402 -0,20
2 Midvaal Ster 15540 9034 72,02 15069 3,13
3 Kalahari Buletin (Formerly Kuruman Bulletin) 27832 19867 40,09 27834 -0,01

34
Titles Showing Largest DeclineFree Newspapers
No Publication Name TOTAL CIRCULATION Corresponding Previous Period Variance - Prior Year Previous Quarter Variance - Previous Quarter
1 Makhado Review 924 5800 -84,07 472 95,76
2 Veereniging Ster 16806 23709 -29,12 17631 -4,68
3 Rekord Central/Sentraal 18391 22540 -18,41 18391 0,00
4 Express 43928 53733 -18,25 47205 -6,94
35
4 Year Magazine Circulation by Quarter

• Comment
• Total magazines increased by 0.5 (97,000 copies)
  over the previous quarter.
• Consumer magazines decreased by 0.4 (24,000
  copies) over the previous quarter.

36
4 Year Category Trend by QuarterConsumer
Magazines

• Comment
• Circulation declined annually by 1.7 (468,000
  copies) over the period,
• although the decline has slowed in Q1 compared to
  the previous 6 quarters.

37
New Members / RemovalsConsumer Magazines
38
Titles Showing Largest GrowthConsumer Magazines
No Publication Name TOTAL CIRCULATION Corresponding Previous Period Variance - Prior Year Previous Quarter Variance - Previous Quarter
1 Kuier Combo (Annual) 105 511 23 077 357,21    
2 SA Career Focus (Six monthly) 4 835 2 412 100,46    
3 Super Bike 9722 6172 57,52 6432 51,15
4 Real Brides 2192 1507 45,45 1723 27,22

39
Titles Showing Largest DeclineConsumer Magazines
No Publication Name TOTAL CIRCULATION Corresponding Previous Period Variance - Prior Year Previous Quarter Variance - Previous Quarter
1 Tech-Smart Magazine 14767 74304 -80,13 14784 -0,11
2 HQ Pony 3782 9909 -61,83 3729 1,42
3 Today's Child 10069 24016 -58,07 10034 0,35
40
4 Year Category Trend by QuarterConsumer
Magazines - Home

• Comment
• Circulation has remained static over the period,
• Q1, however, increased by 20,000 copies compared
  to Q4..

41
4 Year Category Trend by QuarterConsumer
Magazines - Sport and Hobby
Comment Circulation declined annually by 3.3
(66,000 copies) over the period. Q1 remained
static compared to Q4.
42
4 Year Category Trend by QuarterConsumer
Magazines - Travel

• Comment
• Circulation increased annually by 22.7 (259,000
  copies) over the period,
• fluctuating considerably as a result of biennial
  reporting titles.
• Q1 increased by 19,000 copies compared to Q4.

43
4 Year Category Trend by QuarterConsumer
Magazines Womans General
Comment Circulation declined by 3.4 annually
(237,000 copies) over the period. Q1 decreased by
48,000 copies compared to Q4, mainly the result
of a discontinued title.
44
4 Year Category Trend by QuarterBusiness to
Business Magazines

• Comment
• Circulation has remained static over the period.

45
Titles Showing Largest GrowthBusiness to
Business Magazines
No Publication Name TOTAL CIRCULATION Corresponding Previous Period Variance - Prior Year Previous Quarter Variance - Previous Quarter
1 Business Brief (Six monthly) 31 270 19 216 62,73    
2 MIMS Guide to OTC Products (Annual) 2 857 1 778 60,69    
3 Poultry Focus Africa 4352 2927 48,68 4254 2,30

46
Titles Showing Largest DeclineBusiness to
Business Magazines
No Publication Name TOTAL CIRCULATION Corresponding Previous Period Variance - Prior Year Previous Quarter Variance - Previous Quarter
1 RISKsa 2004 6602 -69,65 7399 -72,92
2 My Office (formerly Shop-SA) 3969 7970 -50,20 3987 -0,45
3 Business In Durban (Annual) 8770 14561 -39,77    
4 Modern Medicine Magazine 3912 5986 -34,65 4021 -2,71
47
4 Year Category Trend by QuarterB2B Magazines
Hospitality, Catering and Tourism

• Comment
• Circulation declined annually by 13 (62,000
  copies) over the period, although has remained
  fairly static over the last year.

48
4 Year Category Trend by QuarterCustom Magazines

• Comment
• Circulation increased annually by 2 (918,000
  copies) over the period.
• Q1 increased by 204,000 copies compared to Q4.

49
Titles Showing Largest GrowthCustom Magazines
No Publication Name TOTAL CIRCULATION Corresponding Previous Period Variance - Prior Year Previous Quarter Variance - Previous Quarter
1 TAXtalk (Six monthly) 10 082 2 028 397,14    
2 TFG Escapes 59 080 27 656 113,62 57 346 3,02
3 Mercedes (Annual) 31 355 15 840 97,95    
4 TFG Man 61 562 32 349 90,31 56829 8,33

50
Titles Showing Largest DeclineCustom Magazines
No Publication Name TOTAL CIRCULATION Corresponding Previous Period Variance - Prior Year Previous Quarter Variance - Previous Quarter
1 Strategic Marketing Magazine (Six monthly) 5 145 16 763 -69,31    
2 Q-One Student Diary (Annual) 54 054 103 060 -47,55    
3 The SA Journal of Epidemoilogy Infection (SAJEI) (Annual) 1 069 1 922 -44,38    
51
4 Year Category Trend by QuarterCustom
Magazines Entertainment

• Comment
• Circulation increased annually by 5.7 (513,000
  copies) over the period.
• However, Q1 increased by 9 (221,000 copies)
  compared to Q4.

52
4 Year Category Trend by QuarterCustom
Magazines Retail

• Comment
• Circulation increased annually by 1 (263,000
  copies) over the period.
• Q1 remained static compared to Q4.

53
4 Year Category Trend by QuarterFree Magazines

• Comment
• Circulation declined annually by 16.9 over the
  period.
• Q1 decreased by 10 (60,000 copies) compared to
  Q4.

54
Observations

• With the elections behind us we should remember
  that circulation remains
  democracy in print perhaps the most accurate
  expression of public support available for
  publisher and advertiser scrutiny and decision
  making.
• The results that you have seen this morning
  should be scrutinized and the implications
  understood fully by all stakeholders. Within each
  segment there are winners as well as titles where
  there is room for improvement.
• Decisions and negotiations going forward should
  be based on such objective performance results.
• Press
• Daily Newspaper performance remains promising as
  results show consistency with Q4 2013. It is
  interesting to point out that inland circulations
  dropped unexpectedly. However Daily Dispatch
  jumped 18 and Isolezwe was up 11 on Q4 2013.
• Weeklies, The slide continues down a further 2.5
  on 2013 Q4.
• Weekend titles dropped only 1.8 albeit Afrikaans
  titles faired worse than their English or
  vernacular counterparts.
• The Local and free newspapers category grew over
  the period with strong growth in particular from
  the Review Midweek.

55

• Magazines
• The overall performance of the magazine category
  suggest stability. This is not true. There were
  more closures than new entrants. This combination
  obscures the results.
• Specific highlights include
• The travel category jumped 19 000 copies since Q4
  2013.
• Discontinued titles in the Womans General
  category resulted in the category reflecting a
  decline.
• In the Business 2 Business segment, the
  circulation declined marginally. That said,
  Business Brief jumped 62 year on year which is a
  remarkable performance given its target market.
• Custom magazines continue to grow, up 204 000
  copies compared to Q4 2013. Growth was as
  expected industry specific. Taxi Talk jumped
  394, while retail titles remained fairly static.
  
• Free magazines declined 10 on 2013 Q4
• In summary newspapers continue to perform
  relatively better than magazines, which given the
  prophets of a digital apocalypse seems counter
  intuitive. What remains clear is that relevant
  content remains kingirrespective of the channel.

56
Thank you.
57

• Your ABC
• - Transparency you can see -