Title: Forest/Environment

1
Climate change and EU agriculture
Hilkka SUMMA European Commission, DG Agriculture
and Rural Development
2
Outline

1. Climate change is happening observed effects
2. Impacts on agriculture
3. EU Climate policy The CAP and Climate change

3
Climate change is happening and accelerating
4
Climate change is not a projection

• Many climate impacts are observed today, also in
  Europe
• Europe has warmed ( 1C) faster than global
  average (almost 0,8C)
• Global mean temperatures continue to rise. Rates
  of surface warming increased since mid-1970s
• The 1990-1999 decade has been the warmest of the
  century. The 10 hottest years on record have
  occurred since 1991
• Precipitations increased in northern latitudes
  over the period 1900-2005 and decreased in the
  tropics and subtropics since the 1970s
• Extreme weather events have become more frequent,
  severe, and costly in all parts of the world
• Increased frequency of heavy precipitations
• More intense and longer droughts since 1970

5
(No Transcript)
6
Trend in mean annual rainfall during 1900-1998
Significant decrease of rainfall during the last
century in the Mediterranean area
7
Projected precipitation changes

• Changes in yearly and seasonal precipitation
  patterns ? too much too little
• ? winter rainfall and ? in summer
• ? variability of rainfall in North-West EU, but
  little change in overall precipitation
• ? in yearly average precipitation in Southern
  areas

European Countryside Movement Brussels
13.11.2008
8
EU agriculture will also be affected
9
Impacts on Agriculture



-
-
-
From Tubiello, IIASA, 2007
10
Biophysical CC impacts on agriculture (1)

• Agriculture is highly exposed to climate change
• Some positive effects (north), but mostly adverse
  impacts (south)
• The most vulnerable Mediterranean, south-eastern
• The most critical trends
• Future precipitation patterns (water stress)
• Incidence of extreme weather events
• In the medium term (2020-2030), significant
  impacts from increased frequency and severity of
  extreme weather events (droughts, heat waves,
  storms, floods)
• Progressively negative impacts after 2050 as
  temperature rises

11
Biophysical CC impacts on agriculture (2)

• Indirect effects through impacts on physical and
  biological systems
• Soil conditions (organic matter, erosion risk)
• Warming will increase the risk of disease and
  change pest patterns
• Environmental side effects water quality
• Increased water stress
• Increased irrigation water demand (not only in
  current irrigated areas)
• Reduced water availability in many river basins
• Need to save water and adaptive actions
  (irrigators)

12
Socio-economic aspects

• The projected climatic changes will affect
• crop yields (level, stability), ? risk crop
  failures
• livestock management
• in the medium term, shifts in crop locations
• Diverse territorial impacts
• risks for farm income and higher income
  variability
• risks for food supply in some parts of Europe
• land abandonment risk
• increasing disparities between EU rural regions
• Vulnerability to climate change increased by
• International competition, trade liberalisation
• Socio- economic challenges (ageing, urbanisation)

13
Climate Change crop yield projections
A1-medium
B2-medium
?
Source JRC/IES EAGLE study
14
Effects 2003 heat wave and drought on wheat yields

• Yields have increased in the last 40 years
  (technological progress)
• Yield (and output) are two of the main components
  of risk in agriculture and often related to
  adverse weather conditions, plant diseases and
  pests

15
EU Climate policy The CAP and Climate change
16
EU climate policy

• Emphasis on commitments on GHG reductions
• Kyoto commitments 8 reduction by 2012 (EU-15)
• Communication Limiting global cc to 2C (2007)
• Council conclusions (March 2007) commitment to
  20 reduction by 2020 30 within an
  international agreement
• Climate and energy package january 2008
• Review of the Emission Trading System (ETS)
• Effort Sharing in non-ETS sectors proposal for
  decision
• Communication on post-Kyoto commitments in
  preparation (The Road to Copenhagen)
• Adaptation as an emerging policy area
• Green Paper on adaptation (July 2007)
• White Paper EU adaptation strategy (early 2009)

European Countryside Movement brussels
13.11.2008
17
Climate adaptation ? emerging policy field at EU
level

• July 2007- EU Green Paper- launches the debate
  on adapting to climate change
• Concludes that adaptation efforts need to be
  stepped up at all levels and in all sectors and
  need to be well-coordinated
• Early adaptation reduces costs
• Integrate adaptation in existing environmental
  and sectoral EU policies and Community funding
  programmes, including the CAP
• Expand knowledge on climate change impacts and
  adaptation options
• Develop EU coordinated adaptation strategies.
• Early 2009 Communication (White Paper)
  proposals for an EU adaptation Strategy

European Countryside Movement Brussels
13.11.2008
18
CAP and Climate change

• Double challenge
• Reduction of GHG emissions from agriculture
• Adaptation to impacts of climate change
• Contribution to mitigation
• Emissions from agriculture 20 reduction
  1990-2006 (all sectors 8)
• A further 15 reduction projected by 2010
• Evolution of the CAP less incentives for
  intensive agriculture
• Environmental legislation
• Water protection (WFD), emission ceilings (NEC)
• Cross-compliance GAEC for soil protection

European Countryside Movement Brussels
13.11.2008
19
Main drivers of the declining emissions trend in
agriculture
N fertilisers
Cattle
European Countryside Movement Brussels
13.11.2008
20
CAP and adaptation

• The recent wave of CAP reforms characterised by
• a shift from market intervention to direct
  producer support (decoupled from production)
• increased support for rural development
• Decoupling extended in recent reforms sugar
  (2006), fruits and vegetables (2007) Health
  Check
• This should facilitate the adaptation of the
  agricultural sector and rural areas by
• giving greater flexibility in the production
  decisions market and agronomic factors
• securing farm income
• facilitating the adjustment of farm sector
  structures and production methods

21
The adaptation challenge

• Farmers have long proved their capacity to adapt
  to new challenges
• In the medium term, adaptation may require
  planned changes in
• production methods plant protection
• land use
• farm structures and strategies, with
• significant costs
• The challenge is to guarantee sustainability of
  European agriculture and rural areas
• resilience to climate change economic and social
  viability
• coherence with environmental protection
• Adaptation strategies needed on EU, national and
  regional levels

22
Role of rural development

• Axis 1
• Farm modernization
• Restoring prevention
• Farm advisory services
• Training
• Axis 2
• Agri-environmental measures
• Conservation genetic resources
• Payments linked to WFD
• Afforestation
• Axis 3
• Diversification into non-agricultural activities
• Leader

European Countryside Movement Brussels
13.11.2008
23
Conclusions

• Farming is very vulnerable to climate change,
  increased by socio-economic pressures
• Global warming, but local impacts
• Adaptation has to deal not only with changing
  temperature and rainfall, but also by increasing
  variability, more extreme events
• Adaptation planning is challenging
  uncertainties, interaction climate / agronomic
  factors, long planning horizon, and ? effects
  in the same area
• Future adjustments of the CAP will need to
  integrate climate adaptation concerns and water
  management
• Provide positive incentives to farmers to adapt
  to new environment

24
Thank you for your attention