??? Chien-fu Jeff Lin

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• ??? Chien-fu Jeff Lin
• ????
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• http//ccms.ntu.edu.tw/clin
• e-mail clin_at_ntu.edu.tw

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• ?? Fulbrighter 2006
• ????????????? 2000/82004/7
• ??????????????? (????) 2003/72003/9
• ?????????? 2003/1? 2003/2
• ??DAAD ??????? 2003
• ?????????? 2000? 2003, 2002???????????????
• ????????? 2002/72005/6
• ?????? ?? 2000, 2002,2006
• ????????? 2006

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• ???????????????????????????????????????? ?
• ?????(HCFC)??????(CFC)????????????????????????????
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• ???????????,??2000?????????,???????????,??????????
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http//www.climatecrisis.net/thescience

• The number of Category 4 and 5
  hurricanes has almost doubled in the last 30
  years.
• Malaria has spread to higher
  altitudes in places like the Colombian Andes,
  7,000 feet above sea level.
• The flow of ice from glaciers in
  Greenland has more than doubled over the past
  decade.
• At least 279 species of plants and
  animals are already responding to global warming,
  moving closer to the poles.

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If the warming continues, we can expect
catastrophic consequences.

• Deaths from global warming will double in
  just 25 years -- to 300,000 people a year.
• Global sea levels could rise by more than 20
  feet with the loss of shelf ice in Greenland and
  Antarctica, devastating coastal areas worldwide.
• Heat waves will be more frequent and more
  intense. Droughts and wildfires will occur more
  often. The Arctic Ocean could be ice free in
  summer by 2050.
• More than a million species worldwide could
  be driven to extinction by 2050.

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• ?????????????????,1992?6???????????????(United
  Nation Conference on Environment and Development,
  UNCED)(??????????),???153?????????????????????????
  ??
• ??????????????????????????????????????????2000????
  ????????????????1990???,??2005?????1990?????20???
  ???????????????????????2000?????1990??????????
• ??1997???????????????,??????,???????2008?-2012??,?
  ?????????1990???????5.2,??????7,????8??????????
  ???????????????????????????????

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• ???????21??????
• ???????(WEC)???,???????40-50????,???60-70????200-3
  00????????,??????????60-70?????
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• ???? 3000 cc ????????
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??????(rebound effect)

• 2007?1?,????????????????????????,?????????,?????
  ??????????????????19962001??????????,????????????
  ?10?????,????????????,??????????????10?

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??20?????????

• ?????BP Statistical Review of World Energy,2005?
• ?????International Energy Outlook2002, EIA, 2005?
  
• ??? ??????? ??http//www.moeaec.gov.tw/policy/Ener
  gyWhitePaper/94/main/main.html

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?? ?? ??? ??? ??? ??? ??? ??? ??? ??? ??? ??? ??? ??? ????() ????()
?? ?? 1994? 1994? 2004? 2004? 2010? 2010? 2015? 2015? 2020? 2020? 2025? 2025? 19942004 20042025
?? ?? ?? ?? ?? ?? ?? ??    
????(??) 8,310 100.0 10,224 100.0 12,688 100.0 13,948 100.0 15,072 100.0 16,244 100.0 2.1 2.2
?? 3,204 38.6 3,767 36.8 4,866 38.4 5,307 38.0 5,710 37.9 6,134 37.8 1.6 2.3
??? 1,877 22.6 2,420 23.7 2,903 22.9 3,336 23.9 3,694 24.5 4,085 25.1 2.6 2.5
?? 2,186 26.3 2,778 27.2 3,155 24.9 3,437 24.6 3,699 24.5 3,934 24.2 2.4 1.7
?? 504 6.1 624 6.1 761 6.0 799 5.7 829 5.5 859 5.3 2.2 1.5
?? 540 6.5 634 6.2 1,003 7.9 1,068 7.7 1,139 7.6 1,232 7.6 1.6 3.2
????(??) 8,310 100.0 10,225 100.0 12,691 100.0 13,951 100.0 15,072 100.0 16,244 100.0 2.1 2.2
??? 2,460 29.6 2,784 27.2 3,382 26.6 3,619 25.9 3,853 25.6 4,085 25.1 1.2 1.8
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?????? 2,797 33.7 2,964 29.0 3,357 26.4 3,543 25.4 3,684 24.4 3,876 23.9 0.6 1.3
?? 319 3.8 482 4.7 723 5.7 816 5.9 897 6.0 980 6.0 4.2 3.4
?? 236 2.8 312 3.1 421 3.3 486 3.5 539 3.6 590 3.6 2.8 3.1
???? 2,131 25.6 3,199 31.3 4,133 32.6 4,720 33.8 5,262 34.9 5,804 35.7 4.1 2.9
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?????? 13.7 20.3 19.8 29.0 17.6 21.9 20.0 24.8 139.2 11.7
?? 20.1 30.0 4.0 5.9 24.6 30.6 5.3 6.5 733.9 61.7
?? 7.0 10.4 2.1 3.1 9.3 11.5 2.6 3.3 112.2 9.4
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?? 67.1 100.0 68.2 100.0 80.3 100.0 80.8 100.0 1,188.6 100.0
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?? ??? 2010? 2010? 2015? 2015? 2020? 2020? 2025? 2025?
?? ??? ?? ?? ?? ??
??? 94.3 100.0 102.9 100.0 110.7 100.0 118.9 100.0
OPEC?? 37.7 40.0 41.3 40.1 46.8 42.3 52.7 44.3
?OPEC?? 56.6 60.0 61.7 60.0 63.9 57.7 66.2 55.7
??? 94.6 100.0 103.2 100.0 111.0 100.0 119.2 100.0
??????? 47.7 50.4 50.1 48.5 52.2 47.0 54.6 45.8
???????? 46.9 49.6 53.0 51.4 58.8 53.0 64.6 54.2
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?? ??? 1994? 1994? 1994? 1994? 2004? 2004? 2004? 2004? 2004????? 2004?????
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?? 2101.3 100.0 2085.2 100.0 2691.6 100.0 2689.3 100.0 179.5 100.0
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?????? 907.7 43.2 923.0 44.3 1051.5 39.1 1108.5 41.2 64.0 35.7
?? 134.8 6.4 130.6 6.3 279.9 10.4 242.2 9.0 72.8 40.6
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?? ??? 2010? 2010? 2015? 2015? 2020? 2020? 2025? 2025?
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??????? 52.8 47.4 58.7 45.9 63.1 44.6 66.4 42.5
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???????? 58.6 52.6 69.2 54.1 78.4 55.4 89.8 57.5
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?? 111.4 100.0 127.9 100.0 141.5 100.0 156.2 100.0
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?? 2178.1 100.0 100.0 2185.5 100.0 2732.1 100.0 2778.2 100.0 909.1 100.0
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???? 930.2 42.7 42.7 949.4 43.4 1506.3 55.1 1506.6 54.2 296.9 32.7
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?? ??? 2010? 2010? 2015? 2015? 2020? 2020? 2025? 2025?
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?? 1,326 19.9 1,375 19.0 1,457 18.8 1,629 19.8
?? 544 8.2 514 7.1 486 6.3 459 5.6
??? 374 5.6 373 5.1 386 5.0 386 4.7
???????? 4,426 66.3 4,984 68.8 5,439 70.0 5,752 69.9
?????? 834 12.5 850 11.7 860 11.1 874 10.6
??? 450 6.7 462 6.4 471 6.1 480 5.8
?? 384 5.8 388 5.4 390 5.0 394 4.8
????? 3,196 47.9 3,715 51.3 4,138 53.3 4,435 53.9
?? 116 1.7 117 1.6 118 1.5 116 1.4
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???? 48 0.7 52 0.7 56 0.7 59 0.7
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