Climate Research

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Climate Research a type of physics?

• Hans von StorchHelmholtz Zentrum Geesthacht,
  Institute of Coastal Research, Geesthacht
• CLISAP Klimacampus, Hamburg University

SICCS OE, 11 October 2011, Hamburg
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Overview

• Climate Research history
• Physics of Climate
• Problems independence, experiments,
  inhomogeneity of data, parameterizations
• Postnormality high uncertainty, high stakes
• The knowledge market

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Overview

• Climate Research history
• Physics of Climate
• Problems independence, experiments,
  inhomogeneity of data, parameterizations
• Postnormality high uncertainty, high stakes
• The knowledge market

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Climate research history

• Anthropocentric view climate determines living
  conditions
• Climatic determinism
• Physics of atmosphere and of ocean
• Physics of climate
• Climate change climate constrains living
  conditions

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Alexander von Humboldt (17691859) Cosmos, A
Sketch of a Physical Description of the Universe,
1845
The term climate, taken in its most general
sense, indicates all the changes in the
atmosphere, which sensibly affect our organs, as
temperature, humidity, variations in the
barometrical pressure, the calm state of the air
or the action of varying winds, the amount of
electric tension, the purity of the atmosphere or
its admixture with more or less noxious gaseous
exhalations, and, finally, the degree of ordinary
transparency and clearness of the sky, which is
not only important with respect to the increased
radiation from the earth, the organic development
of plants, and the ripening of fruits, but also
with reference to its influence on the feelings
and mental condition of men.
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Climatic determinism
Ellsworth Huntington 18761947 of Yale University
climatic energy
civilization
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Atmospheric and oceanic dynamics
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Climate physics
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Climate change climate constrains living
conditions
policies
mitigation, adaptation costs
after Hasselmann, 1990
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Overview

• Climate Research history
• Physics of Climate
• Problems independence, experiments,
  inhomogeneity of data, parameterizations
• Postnormality high uncertainty, high stakes
• The knowledge market

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Global temperature derived from thermometer data
(CRU)
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Explaining global mean surface air temperature
IPCC 2007
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Scenarios, not predictions
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Overview

• Climate Research history
• Physics of Climate
• Problems independence, experiments,
  inhomogeneity of data, parameterizations
• Postnormality high uncertainty, high stakes
• The knowledge market

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The space-and time-scales of atmospheric and
oceanic dynamics
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Problems

• All data are dependent on each other maybe every
  30 years, or so, we are able to observe a new
  somewhat independent realization of the climate
  system.
• Only one world, thus truly independent data for
  falsifying hypotheses is generated at very slow
  pace.
• Real experiments hardly possible (except for in
  models as virtual realities)
• Reliance on past data instrumental and indirect
  (proxy)
• Parameterizations needed in modelling.

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Representativity of near surface wind speed
measurements

• Causes of inhomogenities
• Changes in
• Instruments
• Sampling frequencies
• Measuring units
• Environments (e.g. trees, buildings)
• Location
• Station relocations (Dotted lines)

1.25 m/s
J. Lindenberg, 2010
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Representativity of near surface wind speed
measurements
J. Lindenberg, 2010
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Historical data - inhomogeneity
Counting storms in weather maps steady increase
of NE Atlantic storms since the 1930s .
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atmosphere
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Need for parametrising the effect of non-resolved
dynamics on the resolved dynamics. e.g., by
specifying the expected effect due to small-scale
dynamics conditional upon the large scale
(resolved) state. Alternative choose randomly an
effect observed under the given large-scale
state. The limit ?x?0 is not defined for
parameterizations there is no known limiting
equations.
Dynamical processes in a global atmospheric
general circulation model
This part is called physics in the slang of
atmospheric and oceanic scientists (as opposed to
the revolved dynamics).
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Overview

• Climate Research history
• Physics of Climate
• Problems independence, experiments,
  inhomogeneity of data, parameterizations
• Postnormality high uncertainty, high stakes
• The knowledge market

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• In the linear model
• Science clarifies the dynamics of the system,
• prepares forecast conditional upon societal
  measures,
• recommends optimal societal solutions.
• Only problem is to convey the scientific
  knowledge into society,
• which needs to be educated about the facts,
  taught about the issues.
• Failure of society to act reflects failure of
  education by scientists.

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Postnormal science
facts uncertain e.g. sensitivity of global mean
temperature to doubling of CO2 concentration value
s in dispute, e.g., do we cement the world
according to our present preferences or do we
accept a generationally dynamical
development? stakes high, e.g., costs for
re-organizing global energy market and future
damages decisions urgent, e.g., to be efficient,
re-organization of e.g., traffic must be begun
now.
Jerry Ravetz, Silvio Funtovicz, 1986 and
earlier State of science, when facts uncertain,
values in dispute, stakes high and decisions
urgent. In this state, science is not only done
for reasons for curiosity but is asked for as
support for preconceived value-based agendas.
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policies
mitigation, adaptation costs
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Overview

• Climate Research history
• Physics of Climate
• Problems independence, experiments,
  inhomogeneity of data, parameterizations
• Postnormality high uncertainty, high stakes
• The knowledge market

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Two different construction of climate change
scientific and cultural which is more powerful?
Cultural Klimakatastrophe
Scientific man-made change is real, can be
mitigated to some extent but not completely
avoided
Lund and Stockholm
Storms
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Knowledge market

• The science-policy/public interaction is not an
  issue of knowledge speaks to power.
• The problem is not that the public is stupid or
  uneducated.
• The problem is that the scientific knowledge is
  confronted on the explanation marked with other
  forms of knowledge (pre-scientific, outdated
  traditional, morphed by different interests).
  Scientific knowledge does not necessarily win
  this competition.
• The social process science is influenced by
  these other knowledge forms.
• Science can not be objective but should
  nevertheless strive to be so.

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And physics ?

• Climate science comprises a large segment which
  is essential a type of physics
• Climate science is of great technical
  importance, for issues of mitigation and even
  more so for adaptation and thus a type of
  physics.
• But climate science is embedded in a
  politico-cultural context, which makes climate
  science post-normal.
• Thus climate science as a whole is not just
  another type of physics, but a social process
  significantly different from conventional physics.

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http//coast.hzg.de/staff/storch hvonstorch_at_web.de

Weblog KLIMAZWIEBEL http//klimazwiebel.blogspot.c
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