Theories of War Causation

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Theories of War Causation

• Schools Variants
• Johan M.G. van der Dennen

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Theories of War Causation

• Demographic-Ecological School

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Theories of War Causation

• Demographic-Ecological School
• Economic School

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Theories of War Causation

• Demographic-Ecological School
• Economic School
• Imperialism School

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Theories of War Causation

• Demographic-Ecological School
• Economic School
• Imperialism School
• Political-Strategic School

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Theories of War Causation

• Demographic-Ecological School
• Economic School
• Imperialism School
• Political-Strategic School
• (Social)-Psychological School

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Theories of War Causation

• Demographic-Ecological School
• Economic School
• Imperialism School
• Political-Strategic School
• (Social)-Psychological School
• Apologetic School

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Theories of War Causation

• Demographic-Ecological School

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Theories of War Causation

• Demographic-Ecological School
• Population pressure (Plato) / Lebensraum

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Theories of War Causation

• Demographic-Ecological School
• Population pressure (Plato) / Lebensraum
• Demographic relaxation / Filicide (Bouthoul)

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Theories of War Causation

• Demographic-Ecological School
• Population pressure (Plato) / Lebensraum
• Demographic relaxation / Filicide (Bouthoul)
• Lateral pressure / distribution of resources

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Theories of War Causation

• Demographic-Ecological School
• Population pressure (Plato) / Lebensraum
• Demographic relaxation / Filicide (Bouthoul)
• Lateral pressure / distribution of resources
• Geopolitical variant (Haushofer)

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Theories of War Causation

• Economic School (Material gain / pleonexia)

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Theories of War Causation

• Economic School (Material gain / pleonexia)
• Mercantilists

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Theories of War Causation

• Economic School (Material gain / pleonexia)
• Mercantilists
• Physiocrats / Manchester School / Liberals

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Theories of War Causation

• Economic School (Material gain / pleonexia)
• Mercantilists
• Physiocrats / Manchester School / Liberals
• Marxists

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Theories of War Causation

• Economic School (Material gain / pleonexia)
• Mercantilists
• Physiocrats / Manchester School / Liberals
• Marxists
• Merchants of death / War-profiteering / Scandal

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Theories of War Causation

• Economic School (Material gain / pleonexia)
• Mercantilists
• Physiocrats / Manchester School / Liberals
• Marxists
• Merchants of death / War-profiteering / Scandal
• Military-industrial(-academic) complex

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Theories of War Causation

• Imperialism School (Material territorial gain)

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Theories of War Causation

• Imperialism School (Material territorial gain)
• Conservative variant

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Theories of War Causation

• Imperialism School (Material territorial gain)
• Conservative variant
• Liberal variant (Hobson)

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Theories of War Causation

• Imperialism School (Material territorial gain)
• Conservative variant
• Liberal variant (Hobson)
• Marxist-Leninist / Revisionist / Neo-Marxist

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Theories of War Causation

• Imperialism School (Material territorial gain)
• Conservative variant
• Liberal variant (Hobson)
• Marxist-Leninist / Revisionist / Neo-Marxist
• Militarist variant (Schumpeter)

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Theories of War Causation

• Political-Strategic School (Power)

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Theories of War Causation

• Political-Strategic School (Power)
• Ultima ratio / Cost-benefit calculus

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Theories of War Causation

• Political-Strategic School (Power)
• Ultima ratio / Cost-benefit calculus
• Machiavelli Hobbes Clausewitz Realists
  (Morgenthau, Waltz) Expected utility theory
  (Bueno de Mesquita) Blainey Stoessinger

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Theories of War Causation

• Political-Strategic School (Power)
• Ultima ratio / Cost-benefit calculus
• Machiavelli Hobbes Clausewitz Realists
  (Morgenthau, Waltz) Expected utility theory
  (Bueno de Mesquita) Blainey Stoessinger
• Balance of power / parity / preponderance

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Theories of War Causation

• Political-Strategic School (Power)
• Ultima ratio / Cost-benefit calculus
• Machiavelli Hobbes Clausewitz Realists
  (Morgenthau, Waltz) Expected utility theory
  (Bueno de Mesquita) Blainey Stoessinger
• Balance of power / parity / preponderance
• Polarity Deterrence / Security dilemma Arms
  races

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Theories of War Causation

• Political-Strategic School (Power)
• Ultima ratio / Cost-benefit calculus
• Machiavelli Hobbes Clausewitz Realists
  (Morgenthau, Waltz) Expected utility theory
  (Bueno de Mesquita) Blainey Stoessinger
• Balance of power / parity / preponderance
• Polarity Deterrence / Security dilemma Arms
  races
• Power transition theory and hegemonic war

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Theories of War Causation

• Political-Strategic School (Power)
• Ultima ratio / Cost-benefit calculus
• Machiavelli Hobbes Clausewitz Realists
  (Morgenthau, Waltz) Expected utility theory
  (Bueno de Mesquita) Blainey Stoessinger
• Balance of power / parity / preponderance
• Polarity Deterrence / Security dilemma Arms
  races
• Power transition theory and hegemonic war
• Rank disequilibrium theory (Galtung)

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Theories of War Causation

• (Social-)Psychological School (Bête humaine)

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Theories of War Causation

• (Social-)Psychological School (Bête humaine)
• Human nature / bête humaine / passions-reason

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Theories of War Causation

• (Social-)Psychological School (Bête humaine)
• Human nature / bête humaine / passions-reason
• Thucydides (fear) Hobbes competition,
  diffidence, glory

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Theories of War Causation

• (Social-)Psychological School (Bête humaine)
• Human nature / bête humaine / passions-reason
• Thucydides (fear) Hobbes competition,
  diffidence, glory
• Great men / Evil men (personified cataclysmic)

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Theories of War Causation

• (Social-)Psychological School (Bête humaine)
• Human nature / bête humaine / passions-reason
• Thucydides (fear) Hobbes competition,
  diffidence, glory
• Great men / Evil men (personified cataclysmic)
• National character / (Mass) psychopathology

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Theories of War Causation

• (Social-)Psychological School (Bête humaine)
• Human nature / bête humaine / passions-reason
• Thucydides (fear) Hobbes competition,
  diffidence, glory
• Great men / Evil men (personified cataclysmic)
• National character / (Mass) psychopathology
• Minds of Men variant misperception comm.

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Theories of War Causation

• (Social-)Psychological School (Bête humaine)
• Human nature / bête humaine / passions-reason
• Thucydides (fear) Hobbes competition,
  diffidence, glory
• Great men / Evil men (personified cataclysmic)
• National character / (Mass) psychopathology
• Minds of Men variant misperception comm.
• Instinctivist variants (pugnacity / Todestrieb)
• Herd instincts aggressive instincts
  adventurism

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Theories of War Causation

• (Social-)Psychological School (Bête humaine)
• Human nature / bête humaine / passions-reason
• Thucydides (fear) Hobbes competition,
  diffidence, glory
• Great men / Evil men (personified cataclysmic)
• National character / (Mass) psychopathology
• Minds of Men variant misperception comm.
• Instinctivist variants (pugnacity / Todestrieb)
• Herd instincts aggressive instincts
  adventurism
• Frustration-aggression displacement variant

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Theories of War Causation

• (Social-)Psychological School (Bête humaine)
• Human nature / bête humaine / passions-reason
• Thucydides (fear) Hobbes competition,
  diffidence, glory
• Great men / Evil men (personified cataclysmic)
• National character / (Mass) psychopathology
• Minds of Men variant misperception comm.
• Instinctivist variants (pugnacity / Todestrieb)
• Herd instincts aggressive instincts
  adventurism
• Frustration-aggression displacement variant
• Obedience / Sociality / Group-altruism / Noble

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Theories of War Causation

• Apologetic School (war as necessity)

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Theories of War Causation

• Apologetic School (war as necessity)
• Metaphysical variant (divine punishment)

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Theories of War Causation

• Apologetic School (war as necessity)
• Metaphysical variant (divine punishment)
• Etatistic variant (Hegel)

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Theories of War Causation

• Apologetic School (war as necessity)
• Metaphysical variant (divine punishment)
• Etatistic variant (Hegel)
• Social Darwinist variant (agent of progress)

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Theories of War Causation

• Apologetic School (war as necessity)
• Metaphysical variant (divine punishment)
• Etatistic variant (Hegel)
• Social Darwinist variant (agent of progress)
• Eschatological variants (proletarian paradise)

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The phalanx the major invention of civilized
warfare
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Raiding (dawn attack) by a Florida Indian tribe
(de Bry, 1590)
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Pitched battle type of intergroup agonistic
behavior in primates generally, and possibly even
in social and group territorial mammals generally
(social carnivores, dolphins, etc.).
Lethal male raiding in the common ancestor of
both humans and chimpanzees 6 - 8 mya (Wranghams
synapomorphy or shared derived trait).
Lethal male raiding as independently evolved in
both humans and chimpanzees (implied by van der
Dennen)
THE (CHRONO)LOGICALLY POSSIBLE THEORETICAL VIEWS
ON THE EVOLUTION OF WAR AS PITCHED BATTLE AND
RAIDING
War in both humans (Hu) and chimpanzees (Chi) as
relatively recent cultural inventions
Hu
Chi
Bo
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Differences between battle and raid
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Differences between battle and raid
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Differences between battle and raid
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War Causation The Evidence

• Onset (occurrence/initiation) of war Factors
  increasing the probability of the onset
  (occurrence/initiation) of war

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War Causation The Evidence

• Onset (occurrence/initiation) of war Factors
  increasing the probability of the onset
  (occurrence/initiation) of war
• Level of analysis state

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War Causation The Evidence

• Onset (occurrence/initiation) of war Factors
  increasing the probability of the onset
  (occurrence/initiation) of war
• Level of analysis state
• Power status (major power)

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War Causation The Evidence

• Onset (occurrence/initiation) of war Factors
  increasing the probability of the onset
  (occurrence/initiation) of war
• Level of analysis state
• Power status (major power)
• Power cycle (critical point if major power)

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War Causation The Evidence

• Onset (occurrence/initiation) of war Factors
  increasing the probability of the onset
  (occurrence/initiation) of war
• Level of analysis state
• Power status (major power)
• Power cycle (critical point if major power)
• Alliance (alliance member)

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War Causation The Evidence

• Onset (occurrence/initiation) of war Factors
  increasing the probability of the onset
  (occurrence/initiation) of war
• Level of analysis state
• Power status (major power)
• Power cycle (critical point if major power)
• Alliance (alliance member)
• Borders (number of borders)

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War Causation The Evidence

• Onset (occurrence/initiation) of war
• Level of analysis dyad

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War Causation The Evidence

• Onset (occurrence/initiation) of war
• Level of analysis dyad
• Contiguity/proximity (common border/distance)

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War Causation The Evidence

• Onset (occurrence/initiation) of war
• Level of analysis dyad
• Contiguity/proximity (common border/distance)
• Political systems (absence of joint democracies)

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War Causation The Evidence

• Onset (occurrence/initiation) of war
• Level of analysis dyad
• Contiguity/proximity (common border/distance)
• Political systems (absence of joint democracies)
• Economic development (absence of joint advanced
  economies)

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War Causation The Evidence

• Onset (occurrence/initiation) of war
• Level of analysis dyad
• Contiguity/proximity (common border/distance)
• Political systems (absence of joint democracies)
• Economic development (absence of joint advanced
  economies)
• Static capability balance (parity)

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War Causation The Evidence

• Onset (occurrence/initiation) of war
• Level of analysis dyad
• Contiguity/proximity (common border/distance)
• Political systems (absence of joint democracies)
• Economic development (absence of joint advanced
  economies)
• Static capability balance (parity)
• Dynamic capability balance (unstable transition)

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War Causation The Evidence

• Onset (occurrence/initiation) of war
• Level of analysis dyad
• Contiguity/proximity (common border/distance)
• Political systems (absence of joint democracies)
• Economic development (absence of joint advanced
  economies)
• Static capability balance (parity)
• Dynamic capability balance (unstable transition)
• Alliance (unbalanced external alliance-tie)

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War Causation The Evidence

• Onset (occurrence/initiation) of war
• Level of analysis dyad
• Contiguity/proximity (common border/distance)
• Political systems (absence of joint democracies)
• Economic development (absence of joint advanced
  economies)
• Static capability balance (parity)
• Dynamic capability balance (unstable transition)
• Alliance (unbalanced external alliance-tie)
• Enduring rivalry

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War Causation The Evidence

• Onset (occurrence/initiation) of war
• Level of analysis region

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War Causation The Evidence

• Onset (occurrence/initiation) of war
• Level of analysis region
• Contagion/diffusion (presence of ongoing regional
  war)

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War Causation The Evidence

• Onset (occurrence/initiation) of war
• Level of analysis region
• Contagion/diffusion (presence of ongoing regional
  war)
• Level of analysis system

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War Causation The Evidence

• Onset (occurrence/initiation) of war
• Level of analysis region
• Contagion/diffusion (presence of ongoing regional
  war)
• Level of analysis system
• Polarity (weak unipolarity/declining leader)

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War Causation The Evidence

• Onset (occurrence/initiation) of war
• Level of analysis region
• Contagion/diffusion (presence of ongoing regional
  war)
• Level of analysis system
• Polarity (weak unipolarity/declining leader)
• Unstable hierarchy

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War Causation The Evidence

• Onset (occurrence/initiation) of war
• Level of analysis region
• Contagion/diffusion (presence of ongoing regional
  war)
• Level of analysis system
• Polarity (weak unipolarity/declining leader)
• Unstable hierarchy
• Number of borders

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War Causation The Evidence

• Onset (occurrence/initiation) of war
• Level of analysis region
• Contagion/diffusion (presence of ongoing regional
  war)
• Level of analysis system
• Polarity (weak unipolarity/declining leader)
• Unstable hierarchy
• Number of borders
• Frequency of civil/revolutionary wars

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War Causation The Evidence

• Seriousness of war (magnitude/duration/severity)
  Factors increasing the probable
  seriousness (magnitude/duration/severity) of war

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War Causation The Evidence

• Seriousness of war (magnitude/duration/severity)
  Factors increasing the probable
  seriousness (magnitude/duration/severity) of war
• Level of analysis state
• Power status (major power)

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War Causation The Evidence

• Seriousness of war (magnitude/duration/severity)
  Factors increasing the probable
  seriousness (magnitude/duration/severity) of war
• Level of analysis state
• Power status (major power)
• Level of analysis system
• Alliance (high polarization)

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War Causation The Evidence

• The Correlates of War (COW) Project defines an
  'international war' as a military conflict waged
  between national entities, at least one of which
  is a state, and that results in at least 1,000
  battle-deaths of military personnel.
• War magnitude the sum of all participating
  nations' separate months of active involvement in
  each war
• War duration the length in months from the
  inception of the war to its termination
• War severity total battle deaths of military
  personnel in each war
• Source Geller Singer (1998 27-28).

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Theories of War Causation
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Theories of War Causation