Annual Simulations of Models-3/CMAQ: Issues and Lessons Learned

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Annual Simulations of Models-3/CMAQ Issues and
Lessons Learned

• Pat Dolwick, Carey Jang, Norm Possiel,
• Brian Timin, Joe Tikvart
• Air Quality Modeling Group
• USEPA/OAQPS/EMAD
• Research Triangle Park, North Carolina

M3 User Workshop, 10/21/2002
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OUTLINE

• Applications and evaluations of Models-3/CMAQ
  at USEPA/OAQPS
• Issues related to annual modeling of ozone and PM
• Preliminary comparison results between CMAQ-2002
  and -2001 releases
• On-going and upcoming activities

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Models-3/CMAQ Applications and Evaluations at
EPA/OAQPS

• Western U.S. Application
• Episodic O3, July 96, 36/12 km, evaluation, (AWMA
  2001)
• Annual Continental U.S. Application
  
• 1-atmosphere, annual 1996, 36-km, evaluation
  diagnostics, on-going for 2001, (AWMA 2001
  2002)
• Eastern U.S. Application
• 1-atmosphere, July 95, urban applications,
  36/12/4-km, emissions control growth (on-going)
• Intercontinental Transport modeling
• Trans-Oceanic transport of air pollutants and
  nested U.S. Asia/China modeling for year 2001

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Models-3/CMAQ Modeling Domain Maps
36 km eastern US domain
4 km domain
12 km domain
12 km western US ozone domain
36 km western US ozone domain
36 km Annual National US domain
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Annual Continental U.S. Application

• Features
• Annual CMAQ modeling
• over the continental U.S.,
• One-Atmosphere
• Model Setup
• Annual PM and O3 (1996)
• 36-km, 8/12 vertical layers
• Meteorology MM5
• Emissions Processing SMOKE
• Model Evaluation Compared against observed data
  (IMPROVE CASTNET) REMSAD
• Papers published in AWMA (2001 2002)

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NOx Emissions
SO2 Emissions
July 1, 1996
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Run Time Disk Space Requirementfor Annual CMAQ
Simulation

• CMAQ annual run time was 14 days
• 4 CPUs (400 MHz) Sun Workstations (Enterprise
  450) Running 4 quarters of the year
  concurrently
• 4 hours/model day (8 layers)
• Model-Ready Inputs/Outputs (entire year)
• Emission (SMOKE/ECIP) 40 GB
• Meteorology (MM5/MCIP) 100 GB
• Outputs (M3/CMAQ) 250 GB, compressed to 9 GB
• The model runs gt4 times faster on new Linux PCs
• 1.6GHz AMD Athlon MP (single CPU)
• Current modeling are transitioned to Linux PCs
  (parallel processing on the PC/Linux cluster is
  being investigated)

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Annual Continental U.S. CMAQ Modeling O3 (July
Max in ppb, 1996)
56
99
149
62
134
132
139
76
137
107
126
119
131
215
127
144
113
194
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Annual CMAQ Modeling Visibility (January
Average in Deciview)
18
16
11
19
14
22
26
9
26
16
24
10
9
26
24
15
22
12
24
14
23
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Annual CMAQ Modeling Wet Deposition
Sulfur Wet Deposition
Nitrogen Wet Deposition
(January average)
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Models-3/CMAQ Simulation Annual Average
PM 2.5
Sulfate PM
Organic PM
Nitrate PM
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Annual Average Total PM 2.5 mass
Model
Observation (IMPROVE)
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Annual Average PM 2.5 Species (SO4, NO3, OC)
SO4
NO3
Model
OC
Observation
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Models-3/CMAQ Monthly Average (July)
Sulfate PM
PM 2.5
Organic PM
Nitrate PM
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Summer Average PM 2.5 Species (SO4, NO3, OC)
SO4
Model
NO3
OC
Observation
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Models-3/CMAQ Monthly Average (January)
Sulfate PM
PM 2.5
Organic PM
Nitrate PM
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Winter Average PM 2.5 Species (SO4, NO3, OC)
NO3
SO4
Model
OC
Observation
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Annual CMAQ Modeling CB4 vs.
RADM2
Nitrate PM (January avg, 1996)
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Annual CMAQ Modeling CB4 vs.
RADM2
Sulfate PM (July avg, 1996)
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NH3 Sensitivity Modeling
Base 50 NH3 reduction
0.62
0.70
0.08
0.09
0.53
1.69
1.16
1.24
Nitrate PM (January Avg, 1996)
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On-going and Upcoming Modeling Activities at
OAQPS/AQMG

• Continue model evaluation and sensitivity test
  for the annual 1996 continental US run
• Examine nitrate and organic PM issues
• Emissions issues (NH3, BEIS3, Fire, CA emis.
  etc.)
• Vertical layer sensitivity (8-14 layers)
• Nitrate nighttime chemistry issue
• N2O5 H2O --gt 2HNO3 and NO2 OH --gt HNO3
• Dry deposition Issue
• Vertical diffusion sensitivity

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On-going and Upcoming Modeling Activities at
OAQPS/AQMG (contd.)

• Modeling support for regulatory analysis
• Clear Skies Initiative (on-going)
• PM Transport Rule (2002/03)
• Nonroad Rule (2002/03)
• Section 812 CAAA Prospective Update (2003)
• 8-Hour Ozone Implementation Guidance (2002/03)
• PM NAAQS Review (2003)
• Regional Haze Rule (on-going)

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On-going and Upcoming Modeling Activities at
OAQPS/AQMG (contd.)

• Improvement of base model simulation
• Increase vertical resolution (from 8 to 12
  layers)
• Monthly NH3 emissions adjustments from animal
  husbandry fertilizer operations (based on ORD
  inverse modeling)
• BEIS-3/BELD-3
• NOx emissions from new Nonroad model
• California NOx VOC emission adjustments
• Updated plume rise algorithm in SMOKE
• Upgrade to latest Models-3/CMAQ release (July
  2002)

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National 1996 CMAQ Modeling
Old Base vs. New Base
8-layer CMAQ 12-layer CMAQ
Peak Ozone (July 1996)
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Annual CMAQ Modeling
Old Base vs. New Base
8-layer CMAQ 12-layer CMAQ
Sulfate PM (Monthly average, July 1996)
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Annual CMAQ Modeling
Old Base vs. New Base
8-layer CMAQ 12-layer CMAQ
Nitrate PM (Monthly average, January 1996)
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Annual CMAQ Modeling
Old Base vs. New Base
Organic PM (July 1996)
8-layer CMAQ 12-layer
CMAQ
Anthropogenic SOA
Biogenic SOA (BEIS2 vs. BEIS3)
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Spring
Summer
CMAQ Seasonal Ozone (8-hr max) Evaluation
Model
Fall
Winter
Observation
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Spring
Summer
CMAQ Seasonal Sulfate PM Evaluation
Model
Observation
Fall
Winter
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Spring
Summer
CMAQ Seasonal Organic PM Evaluation
Model
Fall
Winter
Observation
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Spring
Summer
CMAQ Seasonal Nitrate PM Evaluation
Model
Fall
Winter
Observation
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Spring
Summer
CMAQ Seasonal Total NO3 (HNO3 Nitrate
PM) Evaluation
Model
Fall
Winter
Observation
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CMAQ vs. IMPROVE Model performance Annual
average
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Nitrate Nighttime Chemistry Sensitivity N2O5
?HNO3 rxn rate (sensitivity test)
CB-IV SAPRC-99
(January Average)
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Kv (vertical diffusion) Sensitivity
Base Kv(min) 5
Kv(min) 1, Stable up to 3rd layer,
230 m
(January Average)
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NH3 Dry Deposition Issue in CMAQ
NH3 Dry Dep. (Vd) Air Temp.
(January 19, 2002)
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On-going and Upcoming Modeling Activities at
OAQPS/AQMG (contd.)

• Improvement of base model simulation
• Increase vertical resolution (from 8 to 12
  layers)
• Monthly NH3 emissions adjustments from animal
  husbandry fertilizer operations (based on ORD
  inverse modeling)
• BEIS-3/BELD-3
• NOx emissions from new Nonroad model
• California NOx VOC emission adjustments
• Updated plume rise algorithm in SMOKE
• Upgrade to latest Models-3/CMAQ release (July
  2002)
• Computer time issue (runtime doubled)
• Nitrate PM overprediction issue
• Organic PM/Biogenic SOA issue

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Difference (CMAQ/2002 CMAQ/2001)
D PM 2.5
D Nitrate PM
(January avg.)
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Nitrate PM
CMAQ-2001 (AE2) CMAQ-2002 (AE3)
(January avg.)
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Difference (CMAQ/2002 CMAQ/2001)
D PM 2.5
D Biogenic SOA
(July avg.)
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Anthropogenic SOA
Biogenic SOA
6 ug/m3
2 ug/m3
CMAQ- 2001 (AE2)
CMAQ- 2002 (AE3)
(July avg.)
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Upcoming Modeling Activities at OAQPS/AQMG

• Annual National CMAQ run for year 2001
• 2001 MM5 NEI emissions thru SMOKE
• Model evaluation against expanded PM speciation
  network (TREND, IMPROVE, etc.)
• Intercontinental Transport of Climatic Effect of
  Air Pollutants (ICAP) Project
• Modeling of trans-oceanic pollutant transport
• Nested modeling over East Asia/China Region

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Intercontinental Transport and Climatic Effects
of Air Pollutants (ICAP) USEPA Modeling
Initiative
NASA/MOPPIT CO Transport
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Intercontinental Transport and Climatic Effects
of Air Pollutants (ICAP)
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Air Quality Modeling over China Ozone
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Air Quality Modeling over China PM
PM 2.5
Sulfate PM
Organic PM
Nitrate PM
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Air Quality Modeling over China
Visibility (Deciview)
Sulfate Wet Deposition
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Take Home Message

• PM 2.5 modeling more complex than O3 modeling
• Multi-species vs. single species
• SO2, NOx, VOC, or NH3-limited vs. VOC or
  NOx-limted
• Annual vs. summer pollutants
• Day nighttime chemistry vs. daytime chemistry
• Gas aqueous aerosol chemistry vs. gas
  chemistry
• Organic PM modeling is still a research issue
• Emission (e.g. NH3, fire, Biogenic) monitoring
  issues (e.g., OC/EC, nitrate) and provide further
  modeling challenge
• O3 and PM are highly linked, one-atmosphere
  modeling is necessary

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50 NOx reduction
Nitrate PM Sulfate PM -- (decrease)
-- (decrease)
(July Average, 1996)
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Formation of Secondary PM (PM2.5)
Sulfate PM formation H2SO4 2 NH3 ---gt
(NH4)2SO4 (s) Gas Phase O2,H2O SO2
OH ---gt H2SO4 Aqueous Phase
H2O S(IV) H2O2 ---gt H2SO4 (Dominate over
low pH) S(IV) O3 ---gt H2SO4
Organic PM formation (Gas-Particle conversion)
VOC OH ---gt SOA O3, NO3
(semi-volatile) (Long-chain VOC, Aromatics,
Biogenic VOC)
Nitrate PM formation HNO3 NH3 lt---gt
NH4NO3 (aq,s) Gas Phase
(daytime) NO2 OH ---gt HNO3 Gas Aq Phase
(nighttime) N2O5 H2O ---gt HNO3
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50 NOx reduction
Ozone Sulfate PM --
(decrease) -- (decrease)
(July Average, 1996)
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50 NOx reduction
Ozone Organic PM --
(decrease) -- (decrease)
(July Average, 1996)
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50 NOx reduction
Nitrate PM Sulfate PM -- (decrease)
(increase)
(January Average)
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50 NOx reduction
Ozone Sulfate PM (increase)
(increase)
(January Average)
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.OH Role in Linking Pollutants Formation
One-Atmosphere
PM2.5
SOx or NOx NH3 OH ---gt (NH4)2SO4
or NH4NO3
VOC OH ---gt Orgainic PM
One Atmosphere
Ozone
Visibility
One Atmosphere
Fine PM (Nitrate, Sulfate, Organic PM)
.OH
NOx VOC OH hv ---gt O3
Acid Rain
Water Quality
SO2 OH ---gt H2SO4
NOx SOx OH (Lake Acidification,
Eutrophication)
NO2 OH ---gt HNO3
OH lt---gt Air Toxics (POM, PAH, Hg(II),
etc.)
Air Toxics
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Questions ??????