Institut d

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Institut dAstronomie et de Géophysique G.
Lemaître Chemin du Cyclotron, 2 1348
Louvain-la-Neuve
Paramètres Astronomiques le métronome des
changements climatiques
A. Berger et M.F. Loutre
Ecole Eté de Physique sur la Physique de notre
Planète la Terre et son Climat, E2PHY,
Université de Bordeaux I, 25-28 août 2003
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Last Glacial Maximum 21kyr BP
Today
LGM
DT-5C Dsea level 130m Dice volume 52
106km3 CO2 200 ppmv
Pre-industrial CO2 280 ppmv 2000 AD CO2 370
ppmv
(Joussaume, 1993)
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(Paja Jovanovic, 1943)
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• ASTRONOMICAL SOLUTION
• MATHEMATICS OF INSOLATION
• MODELLING THE PAST
• MODELLING THE FUTURE
• MANS IMPACTS ON CLIMATE/
• ASTRONOMICAL TIME SCALE

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ORBIT-ECC-LATSIS,2001
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ORBIT-O-LATSIS,2001
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ORBIT-11ky-LATSIS,2001
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High insolation Lat. MAX NH in summer

D lat in summer D season in high lat NH
e large SS Perihelion (v270 e sin v min)
MAX
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• ASTRONOMICAL SOLUTION
• MATHEMATICS OF INSOLATION
• MODELLING THE PAST
• MODELLING THE FUTURE
• MANS IMPACTS ON CLIMATE/
• ASTRONOMICAL TIME SCALE

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Present day departure from the last 400kyr
average of insolation
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105 Wm-2
11 kyr BP
25 Wm-2
9 kyr AP
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24h mean irradiance (Wm-2) Mid-month June
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Insolation (Wm-2) Deviation from present day value
115 kyr BP
125 kyr BP
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10kyrBP departure from the last 400kyr average of
insolation
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• ASTRONOMICAL SOLUTION
• MATHEMATICS OF INSOLATION
• MODELLING THE PAST
• MODELLING THE FUTURE
• MANS IMPACTS ON CLIMATE/
• ASTRONOMICAL TIME SCALE

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Bertrand et al.,2002
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• ASTRONOMICAL SOLUTION
• MATHEMATICS OF INSOLATION
• MODELLING THE PAST
• MODELLING THE FUTURE
• MANS IMPACTS ON CLIMATE/
• ASTRONOMICAL TIME SCALE

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The EXCEPTIONAL astronomical forcing over the
next 50 kyr
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High insolation Lat. MAX NH in summer

D lat in summer D season in high lat NH
e large SS Perihelion (v270 e sin v min)
MAX
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105 Wm-2
11 kyr BP
25 Wm-2
9 kyr AP
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24h mean irradiance (Wm-2) Mid-month June
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STAGE 11 / STAGE 1 and its Future
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Orbital parameters an analogue for the future
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MIS11 an analogue for the future
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MIS11 an analogue for the future
Ref Petit et al., 1999
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MIS11 an analogue for the future
CO2 Vostok
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MIS11 other CO2 scenarios
Stage 11 is replaced by stage 9 or stage 5
Stage 11 is made older by 10 kyr or by 20 kyr
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• ASTRONOMICAL SOLUTION
• MATHEMATICS OF INSOLATION
• MODELLING THE PAST
• MODELLING THE FUTURE
• MANS IMPACTS ON CLIMATE/
• ASTRONOMICAL TIME SCALE

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(Pedersen, IGBP Newsletter 44, dec 2000)
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(Bradley, IGBP Newsletter 44, dec 2000)
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LE FUTUR A LECHELLE GEOLOGIQUE
Une prévision à base dastronomie et de gaz à
effet de serre
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Période Glaciaire QUATERNAIRE HOLOCENE ANTHR
OPOCENE (P. Crutzen) Période chaude QUINTERNAIRE
A. Berger, 2001
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Développement Durable-PaleoclimatLes échelles de
temps sont-elles comptatibles ?

• Comprendre le comportement du système climatique
  dans une diversité suffisante de climats
• Rechercher le(s) meilleur(s) analogue(s)
  possible(s) pour T et CO2
• Etudier la stabilité des sites dentreposage des
  déchets
• Analyser les interactions possibles entre les
  impacts des activités humaines sur le climat des
  siècles à venir et les variations naturelles à
  léchelle géologique. Notre responsabilité face à
  lhistoire de la Terre est-elle engagée ?

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http//www.climateunibe.ch/gallery_co2.html
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14 kyr BP
0.0167


80kyr
SS Aphelion

? SS Perihelion
9 kyr BP

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105 Wm-2
11 kyr BP

25 Wm-2

9 kyr AP
20kyr
50kyr
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Sustainable Development PaleoclimateAre the
time scales comptatible ?

• To understand the behaviour of the climate system
  in a set of largely different climates
• To find the best analogs for T and CO2
• To study the stability of the repository sites
  for nuclear waste disposal
• To analyse the possible interactions between
  impacts of human activities on the next centuries
  climate and the natural variations at the
  geological time scale. Is our responsability
  committed facing the Earth history ?