Jag

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Jagüey-1 well site

• North Coast of Cuba in Block 27, 16 NM from
  Cuba, 28 NM to US federal waters, and 80 NM
  from the Florida Keys
• Water depth 5900 feet
• Based on well drilled in 2004, no gas, H2S, or
  hydrates are expected and lighter end oil (30
  API) is anticipated
• For 30 API, 16 K barrels a day production expected

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Transport pathways in the Florida Straits

• Within the Florida Straits a strong ocean current
  flows toward the east from the Gulf of Mexico
• The Florida Current is the beginning of the Gulf
  Stream which flows north along the US East Coast
• On the average, the inner edge of the Gulf Stream
  is within 10 miles of Miami and Ft. Lauderdale,
  FL, and at times there can be gt3 knot flow within
  a few miles of the coast
• Due to fast surface currents in the Florida
  Current/Gulf Stream, strong onshore winds would
  be required for shoreline impacts to Florida

http//oceancurrents.rsmas.miami.edu/atlantic/flor
ida.html
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Statistical modeling MMS (2002)

• Trajectories from instantaneous releases from 3
  locations along Cuba coast
• Less than 0.5 probability of shoreline impacts
  along U.S. coast within 3 days 10-20 within 10
  days
• Segments 19-26 (top right panel) have 0.5-9
  probability of impacts within 10 days

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Statistical modeling ASA (2010)

• Scenarios
• Large/small diesel spills (873/349 tons) during
  Mar-Oct and Oct-Mar
• Two hundred 14-day scenarios (from instantaneous
  releases) run using six years of modeled
  currents/winds
• Calculate probabilities of oil on water surface,
  shoreline oiling, and minimum travel time
• 10-20 of trajectories impact Florida

Oil trajectory
Probability of shoreline oiling

• Worst case scenario defined as the scenario
  leading to the shortest time to shoreline impact
• First impacts in Florida Keys in 6-9 days

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• In the event of an actual spill, NOAA ORR would
  use real-time observations and models to forecast
  oil movement
• Necessary components for oil trajectory
  forecasting
• Surface oil observations, ocean current
  forecasts, wind forecasts
• Method of determining uncertainty

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Surface Oil Observations

• Satellite detection of oil came of age during
  Deepwater Horizon spill
• Detection algorithms applied across all available
  imagery
• E.g. during DWH spill, some potential slicks were
  detected off Cuba
• Analysis of currents suggested source in Yucatan
  Straits rather than DWH
• Was not confirmed to be oil on subsequent
  overflights
• overflights with trained observers still critical
  to providing accurate estimation of surface oil
  distribution

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Ocean Current Forecasts

• NOAA ORR has access to output from multiple
  operational models (10) that cover Florida
  Straits
• NAVO/NRL (NCOM, NCOM-AMSEAS, HYCOM, HYCOM-GOM,
  IASNFS)
• NOAA (NGOM, RTOFS)
• Academic (SABGOM)
• Models assimilate satellite observations
  improving accuracy of representing Loop Current,
  Florida Current, Gulf Stream
• Numerous models allow an ensemble approach
  similar to that used during Deepwater Horizon

http//www7320.nrlssc.navy.mil/IASNFS_WWW/
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Wind forecasts

• In addition to ocean currents, wind forecasts are
  critical to predicting movement of oil
• Winds at well site are most frequently NE or NNE
• Numerous met buoys provide real-time wind
  measurements
• For forecasts we use NWS gridded forecasts and
  spot forecasts
• NOAA Tropical Prediction Center covers Cuban
  waters

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Additional Real-time observations

• HF radar off SE Florida
• Surface drifters
• NAVO ocean features analysis for Gulf Stream
  position gives distance of Florida Current from
  shoreline
• NOAA/AOML Ocean current analysis
• Satellite derived ocean currents
• Satellite derived surface winds

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Putting it all together in GNOME (General NOAA
Operational Model Environment)

• Surface oil observations are used to initialize
  oil spill trajectory model
• Trajectories of oil movement are calculated using
  multiple sources of forecast currents/winds
• Suite of model runs bounds uncertainty in
  prediction

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Final forecast product

• Similar to during DWH, NOAA ORR would produce at
  least daily forecasts of surface oil
• First DWH trajectory forecast produced 4/21/2010,
  11 AM CDT
• Forecasts give predicted distribution of oil in
  24/48/72 hours and include uncertainty on
  prediction

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Trajectory forecasting for potential future spills

• Forecasts of ocean currents and winds generally
  have decreasing skill beyond 3 days
• Prediction of where oil might come ashore from
  future spills or far into the future relies on
  statistical approach
• Early in DWH, ORR produced statistical picture
  of potential impacts should the release continue
  90 days into the future
• Results are probabilities of impact and travel
  times

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Individual Scenarios
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Parameters for the statistical simulation

• 500 simulations random start times in April or
  May, 1992-2007
• 90 day constant rate release
• 10,000 particles
• Medium Crude weathering
• 20nm square receptor grid

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Travel Time