Nuclear Energy Challenges in this Century

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Nuclear Energy Challenges in this Century

• Daniel A. Meneley
• University of Ontario Institute of Technology
• 2000 Simcoe St. N., Oshawa, Ontario, Canada, L1H
  7K4

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Introduction

• Nuclear energy is a mature technology
• It is no longer a leading topic for research
• The world faces an urgent energy challenge
• Population is increasing
• Petroleum supplies are low and uncertain
• There is little time to build for the future
• IEA statement, 2009 annual report
• We must leave oil before it leaves us

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What are The Main Challenges?

• As defined in recent IAEA Report
• International Status and Prospects for Nuclear
  Power, Report by the Director General, September
  2010
• As defined in recent MIT Summary Report
• The Future of the Nuclear Fuel Cycle, An
  Interdisciplinary MIT Study, 2010
• A list of this sort must be based on some kind of
  prediction of the future a precarious task at
  best

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Comparison of Challenge Lists
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Comparison of Challenge Lists
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Comparison of Challenge Lists
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Comparison of Challenge Lists
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Comparison of Challenge Lists
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Comparison of Challenge Lists
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Selection of Challenges
Preconditions
Select Combine
Select combine
Select combine
Priority 2
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Select
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Selected Challenges

• SHORT TERM (ZERO to 50 YEARS)
• Gain Public Acceptance
• Restore Realism in the Assessment of Radiation
  Risk
• Complete the Technical Task Replace Petroleum
  in transportation
• Establish the Means for Financing Nuclear Energy
  Projects
• Answer Power Plant Site, Security, Energy
  Transport Questions
• Eliminate Nuclear Weapons Proliferation
•  
• LONG TERM (50 to 100 YEARS )
• 7. Effective use of available resources (fuels
  and materials)
• 8. Grow Nuclear Capacity to More Than Ten
  Terawatts
• 9. Integrate Industrial Systems Develop the
  Hydricity Network

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Preliminaries

• Earn public acceptance you cant live without
  it
• Acceptance relies on trust
• Institutional trust is essential, but rare today
• Trust is easy to lose and difficult to earn
• If institutions are trustworthy, the young will
  come
• Resources will not be a problem
• Do realistic risk analysis
• Make best estimate predictions of risk
• Decouple these estimates from licensing analysis
• Control costs, improve public acceptance

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3. Complete the Technical TaskReplace Petroleum

• IAEA 2009 Annual Report
• One day we will run out of oil, it is not today
  or tomorrow, but one day we will run out of oil
  and we have to leave oil before oil leaves us,
  and we have to prepare ourselves for that day.
• The earlier we start the better, because all of
  our economic and social system is based on oil.
  To change from that will take a lot of time and a
  lot of money and we should take this issue very
  seriously.

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Only Oil??

• Coal
• Plentiful but poorly distributed and difficult to
  manage in a sensitive natural environment
• Limits to scale-up capability?
• Natural Gas
• Plentiful in some areas, scarce in others
• Shale gas is not the answer

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Nuclear is Small Potatoes Today
http//seekingalpha.com/article/230374-global-hydr
o-and-nuclear-power-in-perspective?sourceemail (
gregor.us)
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Energy Options on Planet Earth
Available Resource Original Source? How Much?
Oil Natural Gas Coal Geothermal Derived from stored solar energy plus the decay of radioactive materials in the earth. Half of available oil has already been used 0.4 yotta (1024) Joules Coal is the largest source

Hydro Wind Solar Tidal Biomass Derived from direct solar (fusion) or from earths and moons kinetic energy. Diffuse and limited in either total capacity or achievable extraction rate. 3.8 yotta (1024) Joules per year Approximately the same amount of energy is radiated to space per year

Uranium Thorium Derived from the explosion of a supernova, some 6.5 billion years ago. Inexhaustible total capacity and widespread availability. High potential extraction rate. 320 yotta (1024) Joules Uranium in seawater is the largest source
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Resources Consumed per Gigawatt of Production
Capacity
Type of power plant No. of units, land area Fuel Required per year Solid Waste tons/year Gaseous Waste, incl. GHGs Avail-ability () Cost US /MWh Life-time (yrs)
Nuclear (LWR) One or two units, small area 20 tons uranium dioxide 1 ton fission products in 15 tons HLW No CO2 or other GHGs during operation 90 45 - 120 gt60

Coal One or two units, small area 4 million tons of coal 0.4 million tons of ash 13 million tons of CO2 80 30- 90 30

Jan B. van Erp, Agustin Alonso, Daniel A.
Meneley, Jozef Misak , George S. Stanford, to be
published
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Is there enough nuclear fuel?
Sources of Uranium and Thorium Sources of Uranium and Thorium Resources (thousands of tonnes) Exajoules (Thermal Reactors) Exajoules (Fast Reactors)
U Recoverable IAEA, 2007 5,500 2750 437,000
U EAR OECD, 1998 15,000 7500 1,200,000
U Used Fuel 2,000 - 160,000
UPu Surplus Military Small Small Small
U Phosphates IAEA 2001 9,100 4700 750,000
U Dissolved in Seawater 4,400,000 N/A 317,800,000
Th Recoverable OECD/ NEA 2007 2,573 (low?) 1300 212,000
NOTE World Primary Energy Use in 2005 457 Exajoules NOTE World Primary Energy Use in 2005 457 Exajoules NOTE World Primary Energy Use in 2005 457 Exajoules NOTE World Primary Energy Use in 2005 457 Exajoules NOTE World Primary Energy Use in 2005 457 Exajoules
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Transportation Fuels

• C.W. Forsberg (ORNL and MIT)
• Liquid fuel demands for transport could be
  reduced in half by combinations of several
  options such as diesel engines and plug-in
  hybrids.
• Independently, the biomass liquid fuel options
  could meet existing liquid fuel demands . . . .
• The specific combination of biomass, nuclear
  energy, and liquid fuels for transportation will
  be determined by the results of ongoing
  development work.

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Alternative Strategies

• Urgent is the most important word today
• We have no time to search for the best solution
• We have a good technology water reactors in
  hand
• We have another option SFR at the
  demonstration stage
• Good for waste management and for energy in the
  long term
• Edward Kee, NERA Consultants
• The most important issue for reactor designs is
  to get a lot of units built and in operation as
  fast as possible. . . . . While design features
  are important, market success is much more
  important.

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Alternative Strategies

• Do NOT fall into the research forever trap
• It is tempting to spend effort on perfect
  solutions that take a long time to develop

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Alternative Strategies

• Do NOT fall into the research forever trap
• It is tempting to spend effort on perfect
  solutions that take a long time to develop
• Of course, do research for the 22nd century
• Work on all energy options that might be
  beneficial
• But do NOT let this research work conflict with
  meeting todays challenge

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Are There Enough Reactor Sites?

• Given the need for a few terawatts of capacity
• Establish mega-sites analogous to major oil
  fields
• Improved technical support and security
  environment
• Arrange for a hub and spoke system with small
  sites
• Build recycling facilities at major sites
• Reduce transportation needs
• Recycle most actinides
• Shorten isolation period and waste repository
  volumes
• On-site waste disposal?
• Recover high value inert fission products (not
  waste)
• Deep-drilled final repository?

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Example A Nuclear Mega-Site
THIS ENERGY SUPPLY IS SUSTAINABLE FOR THOUSANDS
OF YEARS
DUPIC Processing Plant
Used PWR Fuel
Enriched U
U
Uranium Thorium
REPROC. FAB. PLANT
FBR
Pu
Oxide Fabrication Plant
Fresh Fuel
U, Pu, fission products
Reprocessing Plant
Waste
Waste
Disposal
Old Used Fuel
Used Fuel
Used Fuel Storage
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4. Financing the Nuclear Buildup

• Consider a new oil field discovery
• Large capital requirements for development
• Tax relief is a common support mechanism
• Low lease fees
• Direct subsidy
• Concept of the Public Good Paul Collier
• Natural resources have no natural owner
• Ownership normally is assigned to government
• Nuclear is a public good an investment in the
  future
• Loan guarantees by governments are fully
  justified
• This will reduce a common bad the import of
  petroleum

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5. Site, Security, Energy Transport

• A few large sites are preferred for many reasons
• Remote location or an island may be preferred
• Security is much easier and more affordable
• Energy transport similar to that of a large oil
  field
• Energy currencies will be electricity and
  hydrogen
• Co-location e.g. synthetic transportation fuel
  production
• Pipelines and power lines, water transport
• Minimal fuel shipment, especially of used fuel
• Bring recycle facilities to the reactor site

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6. Nuclear Weapons Proliferation

• This is primarily a task for diplomats and
  governments not technical folks
• Effective international agreements are essential
• The nonproliferation regime already exists
• No aggressive use of these weapons in past 65
  years
• A matter for specialists civil and military
• Engineers can assist with but not solve -- this
  issue
• There is no proliferation proof nuclear plant
  design

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7, 8, 9. The Long Term

• Long term fuel supply will not be a problem
• True, if this issue is properly addressed in the
  short term
• Otherwise, long term prediction is too uncertain
  for definite statements on challenges
• The task today is to get through the next 50
  years
• Our descendants probably will produce better
  ideas
• In case they do not, nuclear fission energy can
  do the job even without future technical
  discoveries
• Hydrogen electricity are expected to be main
  currencies
• The matter of steadily increasing human numbers
  must be dealt with soon by someone.

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Summary

• Build nuclear capacity rapidly Gen II and/or
  III
• Classify nuclear capacity as an investment, not
  as a cost
• Do not fall into the research forever trap
• Convert sufficient fertile material to fissile
  material, to supply long term recycled fuel
• Fission most of the higher actinides

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Questions?