Center for Air Pollution Impact and Trend Analysis

1
Ozone and PM Analysis
Progress Report for the Cooperative Agreement CX
825834 with EPA OAQPS, Year 1, 5/98 - 5/99
Prepared by Rudolf B. Husar, PI Bret
Schichtel Stefan Falke Janja Husar Submitted in
June, 1999

• Center for Air Pollution Impact and Trend
  Analysis
• Washington University, St. Louis, MO
• http//capita.wustl.edu/CAPITA/CapitaReports/Capit
  aActivities98-99/CAPITAActivities_98_99/

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Introduction

• This is a Progress Report for year 01 of the
  three year Cooperative Agreement (CX 825834-01,
  5/01/1998-4/30/2001, 300K/yr).
• The Coop is on Ozone and PM Air Quality Analysis
  in Support of Public Needs
• This Report will be presented verbally at EPA to
  the Project Officer and other interested parties
  in September 1999. A web version of this
  presentation can be found at http//capita.wustl.e
  du/CAPITA/CapitaReports/CapitaActivities98-99/CAPI
  TAActivities_98_99/
• This Progress Report has three major sections
• PM and Ozone Data Analysis
• Infrastructure in Support of Air Quality Analysis
• AQ Analyses in Support of AQ Management
• More detailed web-based reports on specific
  topics are linked in the body of this Progress
  Report.

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Contents of Progress Report

• 1.0 PM and Ozone Data Analysis
• 1.1 PM2.5 National Maps
• 1.2 Visibility (PM2.5) trends
• 1.3 Natural (out of EPA jurisdiction) Events
• 1.4 US-Canada Ozone Transport
• 1.5 Planned National Analyses
• 2.0 Infrastructure in Support of Air Quality
  Analysis
• 2.1 Air Quality Data Integration and the Living
  Data Inventory
• 2.2 Air Quality Analysis Tools Methods
• 2.3 PM2.5 Analysis Website Repository
• 2.4 PM Analysis Workbook in Support of SIPS
• 3.0 Air Quality Analyses Management
• 3.1 AQ Management from Systems Analysis
  Perspective
• 3.2 National-Local Interaction for Monitoring
  and Assessment
• 3.3 Interaction among Programs
• 3.4 Megatrends

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National PM2.5 Concentration Maps

• PM2.5 concentration maps are useful for
  understanding the pollutants spatial pattern and
  identifying potential non-attainment areas of the
  PM2.5 NAAQS (annual average of 15 µg/m3 )
• Monitoring data provide information at specific
  points and are used as input in generating the
  maps
• The limited number of PM2.5 monitoring data are
  inadequate to generate meaningful maps. National
  PM2.5 maps are generated using an enhanced
  inverse distance squared method that
  incorporates
• visibility and PM10 surrogate data to aid
  interpolation between PM2.5 monitors
• mountain and mixing height barriers to prevent
  the spreading of non-representative
  concentrations
• declustering to minimize biases from monitoring
  site clusters

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1.1.1 Annual Average PM2.5 Concentrations
(1994-96)
Visibility Aided PM2.5
PM10 Aided PM2.5
120 sites
120 sites
1450 sites
380 sites

• In both maps, PM2.5 concentrations exceed 15
  µg/m3 in the San Joaquin Valley and South Coast
  Basin of California, in the west, and Pittsburgh,
  St. Louis, Roanoke, and the Washington DC - New
  York City Metropolis.
• The visibility aided estimates indicate a larger
  region above 15 µg/m3 along the eastern seaboard.
  Additional areas above 15 µg/m3 are shown with
  PM10 aided estimates including Atlanta and
  eastern Tennessee.

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PM2.5 National Maps - Application

• EPA Trends Report
• PM2.5 Criteria Document 2000
• NAS Report

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Visibility Trends

• This is an update of the US visibility trends
  for the period 1980-95. Earlier visibility trend
  reports covered the 1960 - 1992 period.
• Data from 1996 and 1997 were excluded since
  these data were collected using the automated
  ASOS visibility measuring system.
• The trend analysis is focused on using the
  summer season (June, July, August), because this
  is the period during which the visibility
  degradation is the worst over most of the US
• For further information see U.S. Visibility
  Trends, 1960-1992

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Visibility Trends 1980 - 95
Click on the images to view larger versions

• In the Eastern US, throughout the 1980-95
  period, the 75th percentile BEXT exceeded 0.15 or
  had an average visibility of less than 10 miles.
• Most notable are the hazy regions on both sides
  of the Appalachian Mountains where the BEXT
  exceeds 0.2 1/km.
• Since the early 1980s the BEXT decreased 10-15
  with the largest decreases in the Southern and
  Central regions.

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Light Extinction Trends of the 75th and 90th
Percentiles
Over the Eastern US, the 75th percentile BEXT
decreased about 8 percent over the 15 years.
The largest decreases occurred in the Southeast
where the BEXT decreased 12 compared to 8 in
the Northeast.
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Visibility Trends - Applications

• Report on the Nation's Ecosystems by the Heinz
  Center. A White House initiative to create a
  Report card on the health of our Nations
  ecosystems.
• EPA National Trends Report
• PM2.5 Criteria Document 2000

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Natural Events (Out of EPA Jurisdiction)

• Dust storms and forest fires are major PM events
  that occur several times a year over different
  parts of the US.
• Many of these events originate outside the US,
  e.g. dust from Sahara and the Asian desserts and
  smoke from forest fires in Central America and
  Canada.
• Exceedances of the NAAQS caused by dust and
  smoke events are uncontrollable acts of God.
  Nevertheless, states are required to provide
  evidence that such events (outside their
  jurisdiction) have occurred.
• For this reason, control agencies need to be
  able to detect and document the impact of such
  events on their control region. The existing
  tools for such documentation are poorly
  developed.
• The natural PM events are illustrated by two
  extreme examples Asian dust impacting on the
  West Coast and the Central American forest fire
  smoke impacting the Eastern US.

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Natural Events - Results
Smoke from C. American Forest Fires
SeaWiFS View of the Smoke
GOES 8 View of the Smoke

• During a ten-day period, May 7-17, 1998, smoke
  from fires in Central America drifted northward
  into USA and Canada.
• The smoke caused exceedances of the PM standard,
  health alerts, and impairment of air traffic, as
  well as major reductions of visual range.
• It has been argued that some ozone exceedances in
  the Eastern US may have been due to ozone
  generated by the forest fire smoke.

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Natural Events - Results
Asian Dust over the West Coast

• In Vancouver and in Washington State the PM10 and
  PM2.5 concentrations reached 100 an 40 µg
  respectively.
• Based on public complaints and monitoring data,
  the State of Washington has issued a ban on open
  burning on April 29.

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Natural Events - Applications

• Used in the assessment of the requests by States
  for ozone exceedance waivers for smoke generated
  ozone.
• PM2.5 Criteria Document 2000
• Public and media information source

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US-Canada Ozone Transport

• This is a preliminary analysis for the US-Canada
  Air Quality Agreement.
• The purpose is to illustrate ozone transport
  across the national boundaries.
• The analysis methodology included
• O3 concentration stratified by wind direction
• O3 concentration stratified by wind speed
• Transport wind vectors under high and low ozone
  conditions
• For further information see Ozone Transport Over
  Eastern North America

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Ozone Transport as a Function of Find Direction
At high wind speeds, gt 6 m/s, higher
concentrations appear at the downwind edges of
the Eastern North American domain
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Transport on High and Low Ozone Days
On high O3 days, the transport winds are slow
with clockwise circulation around the
south-center of the Eastern US.On low O3 days,
swift transport winds are from outside the
industrial Eastern North America.
Transport winds during high (90-ile) local ozone
days.
Transport winds during low (10-ile) local ozone
days.
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US-Canada Ozone Transport - Applications

• Canada/US Air Quality Agreement

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Planned National PM Analyses

• PM Spatial and Temporal Pattern Analysis
• Seasonal
• Weekly
• PM Transport Climatology - relate transport to
  ambient concentrations and vice versa.
• Surface Winds
• Forward Airmass Histories
• Backward Airmass Histories

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Infrastructure in Support of AQ Analysis

• PM and Ozone Data Analysis
• PM2.5 National Maps
• Visibility (PM2.5) trends
• Natural (out of EPA jurisdiction) Events
• US-Canada Ozone Transport
• Planned National Analyses
• Infrastructure in Support of AQ Analysis
• Air Quality Data Integration and the Living Data
  Inventory
• Air Quality Analysis Tools Methods
• PM2.5 Analysis Website Repository
• PM Analysis Workbook in Support of SIPS
• AQ Analyses in Support of AQ Management
• AQ Management from Systems Analysis Perspective
• National-Local Interaction for Monitoring and
  Assessment
• Interaction among Programs
• Megatrends

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Air Quality Data Integration and Living Data
Inventory

• The Problem
• The researcher cannot get access to the data
• if he can, he cannot read them
• if he can read them,
• he does not know how good they are
• and if he finds them good
• he cannot merge them with other data.
• Information Technology and the Conduct of
  Research
• The Users view
• National Academy Press, 1989
• For further information see Outline of an Open,
  Distributed Air Quality Data Integration and
  Analysis System

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Data Flow and Processing
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Infrastructure support for a distributed system

• Data sharing standards. A set of open standards
  for the sharing of AQ data, tools and reports.
  Examples TCP/IP, HTML, XML, FGDC
• Data catalog. A virtual centralized catalog with
  search and retrieval facilities. Examples GCMD,
  web-indexes
• Web-based shared workspace. Place to share
  comments, feedback, plans, ...

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Benefits of a Distributed and Shared System

• Access to data. Users can get data, tools,
  reports out of the system for specific projects.
  It can be a forum for the exchange of ideas,
  peer-feedback etc.
• Saving time and money. The data, tools and other
  resources in the system could be leveraging the
  dollars and time available for specific projects.
  
• Recycling Data. Data are costly resource. The
  system can help managing, accessing and
  documenting one's own data, and share it with
  others for re-use.

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North American Integrated Fine Particle Data Sets
PM2.5 mass and composition data (1979-1997)
consisting of 600 urban and rural monitoring
sites in the US and Canada from 18 networks. Data
sets integrated include IMPROVE, AIRS, NAPS,
CASTNet, and others. See NAM Fine Particle Data
Sets for further information.
o Other
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North American Integrated Ozone Data Sets
Daily maximum ozone for the entire U.S. (1415
sites) and Canada (167 sites) from 1986 - 1996.
The data set was created by integrating ozone
data from 7 networks including AIRS, NAPS and
CASTNet. This is an update of the OTAG daily
maximum ozone data set.
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Living Data Inventory - Data Catalog
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CAPITA Tools Methods for AQ Analysis

• CAPITA has developed, used and shared a number of
  software tools and data analysis methods to
  facilitate PM data analysis.
• Data visualization Tools
• Voyager - a multidimensional data browser
• Metbrows - A multidimensional Meteorological Data
  browser
• Movie - animation utility
• MapEdit - GIS tool
• Spatial Mapping Tool
• Distance weighting
• Krieging
• Surrogate aided, Declustering Vertical
  Horizontal barriers
• CAPITA Monte Carlo Model
• A diagonsitic tool for the simulation and
  investigation of the roles of air pollutant
  emissions, transport and kinetics on the air
  quality.

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PM2.5 Analysis Workbook in Support of SIPS

• EPA's Emissions, Monitoring, and Analysis
  Division has initiating a collaborative effort to
  explore relevant analyses of the PM2.5 data to be
  collected by the new National and State
  monitoring networks .
• The goals of the this collaboration are to foster
  an environment for the sharing of ideas and
  develop a workbook detailing useful analyses of
  the PM2.5 mass and speciated data.
• The PM Analysis workbook will be used to deliver
  data, tools and methods relevant to State PM data
  analysts as well as serve as a repository for PM
  analysis results and knowledge.
• The workbook can be found in the Workbook section
  of the PMfine website.

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PM2.5 Analysis Workbook Outline

• 1. Introduction
• 2. Ensuring High Quality Data
• 3. Quantifying PM NAAQS Attainment Status
• 4. Characterizing Ambient PM Concentrations and
  Processes
• 5. Quantifying Trends in PM and its Precursors
• 6. Quantifying the Contribution of Important
  Sources to PM Concentrations
• 7. Evaluating PM and Precursor Emission
  Inventories
• 8. Identifying and Quantifying the Potential for
  Control Strategies in Helping Attain the Standard
• 9. Using PM Data to Assess Visibility

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PM Analysis Website

• This website is a forum for the free exchange of
  fine particle data and information in support of
  these goals.
• The virtual community that shares this website
  consists of individuals from the federal EPA,
  regional, state and local air pollution agencies,
  industry and other groups.
• Documents related to the official regulatory
  process are to be found on the companion EPA
  PM2.5 Data Analysis website.
• The PM Analysis Website is located at
  http//capita.wustl.edu/PMfine/

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PM Analysis Website
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AQ Analyses in Support of AQ Management

• PM and Ozone Data Analysis
• PM2.5 National Maps
• Visibility (PM2.5) trends
• Natural (out of EPA jurisdiction) Events
• US-Canada Ozone Transport
• Planned National Analyses
• Air Quality Analysis Infrastructure
• Air Quality Data Integration and the Living Data
  Inventory
• Air Quality Analysis Tools Methods
• PM2.5 Analysis Website Repository
• PM Analysis Workbook in Support of SIPS
• AQ Analyses in Support of AQ Management
• AQ Management from Systems Analysis Perspective
• National-Local Interaction for Monitoring and
  Assessment
• Interaction among Programs
• Megatrends

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AQ Management from Systems Analysis Perspective

• Following the systems approach, the key AQ
  management steps are
• Setting of AQ Goals
• Monitoring and Assessment of Status and Trends
• Actions to Reduce Exceedances
• Each management module is well defined
• Its function is clear
• Has specific information need
• The role of the AQ Analyst is to provide AQ
  information to these modules
• These steps are consistent with the current EPA
  practice (?)

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Processes, Participants and Methods of AQ
Management
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Systems Concepts in Support of AQ Management
Support

• Provides an inclusive framework
• Identifies the key players/stakeholders and their
  relationship
• Indicates their information needs and flow pattern

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Air Quality and Management as a Feedback System
Monitoring (Sensing)
AssessmentDetermine DeviationsPlan
ReductionsTrack Progress
Set Goals CAAA NAAQS
AirQuality
Implementing Reductions(Actions)
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The Wheel of AQ Management (Adopted from J.
Bachmann)
Establish Goals
Monitor AQ
DetermineReductions
PlanReductions
EvaluateResults
Analysis
Modeling
Implement Reductions
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National and Local AQ Analysis

• AQ data analysis needs to be performed at both
  national (global) and local levels
• The global analysis establishes the large scale
  context
• Local analysis focuses on the specific and
  detailed local features
• National-local interaction needs to be mutually
  beneficial

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Interaction Between National and Local Analysis
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National-Local Information Sharing

• The national and local analysts maintain their
  own workspace
• However, part of the workspace ( data, reports,
  some discussion) can be shared (exposed)
• Networking can create a common virtual workspace

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Potential Applications of National-Local
Interaction

• OAQPS-State Analyst
• Supersite Program

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Interaction Among Programs

• Super sites, NARSTO

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Megatrends Related to PM2.5

• From SO2 and TSP to Ozone and Fine Particulates
• Recent health and environmental effects studies
  implicate ozone and fine particulates as two of
  the most serious current air quality problems in
  North America.
• From Primary to Secondary Pollutants
• Ozone as fine particles are not primary (emitted)
  but formed in the atmosphere from complex
  mixtures of precursor gases. There are no direct
  ways of identifying the impact of specific
  sources.
• From Short Range to Long Range Impact
• The atmospheric lifetime of O3 and PM2.5 is
  several days, so the winds carries them over
  1,000 km from their source. The result is
  "long-range transport" across state and
  international boundaries.
• From Command and Control to Weight of Evidence
• The new AQ management style strives to include
  stakeholders in the policy development
  encourages market-based resource allocations and
  applies 'weight of evidence' - to compliance
  management