Ian McClelland

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• Ian McClelland
• Chairman MCV program
• Contributors
• Colin Creighton
• Dr. Barry White
• Dr. Peter Hayman

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• Two Farmers
• Wizard Clairvoyant
• Making the right decision - Foresees the future
• Understands climate risk - Acts with knowledge
• Has knowledge and understanding - Probability
  working for him

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• MCV Program
• Developing new weather forecasts and products
  that meet Australias agricultural needs
• Improving capability of farmers to make better
  management decisions around climate variability
• Farmers having the right skills to understand
  weather systems

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Why we focus on climate variability as opposed to
climate change?
Roger Jones CSIRO
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What destroyed the sand castle ? In a variable
and changing climate it will always be hard to
distinguish between extreme events (wave) and
trends (tide)
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• What do we want farmers to adopt from MCV
  program?
• Wise decisions instead of lucky decisions
• Assess risk
• Understand climate data
• Access data relevant to their specific locality
• Confidence Dare to risk

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Climate variability has a crucial relationship to
profitability
Federation drought 1895 to 1902
WWII drought 1937 to 1945
Millennium drought 1997 to now
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Severe prolonged drought
Severe single year drought
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Crops
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• Achievements and challenges over 18 years.
• Change from drought research programs and
  managing droughts to climate variability programs
  for all seasons that include climate risk.

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2. The change from ENSO forecasts to those which
include IOD, SAM IPO
Example for Qld Drivers of ENSO,
Monsoon Madden-Julian Oscillation Synoptic
features of Trade winds Cyclones
Depressions Monsoon conditions Inland
troughs East Coast / Cut Off Lows Cloud
Bands Frontal Changes
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3. Development of management tools AussieGRASS
was one of the first projects funded and involved
7 State Government Departments with Rangelands
responsibilities. (now self funding) AussieGRASS
develops a pasture growth or ground cover outlook
a season ahead using a well validated pasture
growth model.

• The outlook reflects
• Current soil moisture
• Current pasture levels, and
• The seasonal rainfall forecast

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4. Understanding probability Yield Prophet
Tamworth historical Potential Yield 204mm soil
moisture _at_ 18/4

• Tamworth Historical Potential Yield vs Last 30
  years 204mm soil moisture at 18/4

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Tamworth Historic Potential Yield 0mm soil
moisture _at_ 18/4 Impact of Climate Change
Scenarios on Frost and Heat Shock Risks for the
Current Crop
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Tamworth Historic Potential Yield 0mm soil
moisture _at_ 18/4Climate Change Scenarios for 2030
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And the Chocolate Wheel Wins
All years Low, Medium High All equal chance if no
forecast
Inflows for the dam on the Lachlan
SOI positive La Niña
SOI negative El Niño
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• 5. MCV Program relevant to many industries
• - MCV fund most long term weather
  forecasting programs
• - Challenge to attract new participants

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6. Improved weather forecastingBiggest early
challenge Getting the message across and back

• When are seasonal forecasts most useful?
• Winter-spring in eastern Australia
• Areas in red show rainfall deficiency in winter
  spring in 12 El Niño years.
• Perception of little value in
• southern Australia
• SW Western Australia

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• Years with the worst wheat crops nationally have
  all been El Niño years. (But not all El Niño
  years are widespread droughts.)
• Probability forecasts - a hard sell - They only
  shift the odds half the time in half the places
• Users are hard markers -sometimes only confusion
  reigns down

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7. Climate champions and masters of climate
material
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8. Limitation of climate forecasts

• Taking into account soil type, topography and
  management
• 9. The difference between observed seasonal
  climate forecast and those used as a management
  tool
• 50 of farmers use SCF but have a certain lack
  of confidence in long term forecasts

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Priorities and scores

• Rebadge away from origins as a 2.1m part of the
  1992 NDP 8/10
• Involve most Rural RD Corporations 9/10
• Better seasonal forecasts 5/10
• Better feedback
• users forecasters
  8/10
• Give priority to worlds best generic products to
  give all farmers and NRM users timely and local
  climate knowledge 10/10

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RD Strategy 2008-2014

• Four themes -
• Forecasting
• Soil, climate water attributes
• Tools for Agriculture
• Knowledge, adoption communication
• Partnership across LWA, GRDC, MLA, DA, RIRDC,
  SRDC
• A 4.7 1 benefit cost ratio over the last 15 years

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Forecasting

• Global Circulation Models
• - a major research challenge as we recognise the
  dynamic nature of our climate
• already providing increased certainty and local
  relevance in forecasts
• our investments focus on where improved skill
  will benefit agriculture
• Multi-Week Forecasting
• - breaking down the barriers of weather climate
  
• - fostering within season climate risk
  management
• Relevance
• ensuring forecasts and products that meet
  Australian agricultures needs

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• The future prosperity of our agricultural
  community will depend on
• More qualified and skilled professionals
  supported by science and technology.
• Continual adjustments in agricultural practices
  as climate variability becomes more pronounced.
• The MCV program still has much more to achieve.

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Discussion
Discussion
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Reflecting on the first decade

• Lack of continuity uncertain funding drought
  dependent competing with climate change
• Equitable funding ? free-riders abound,
• Confusion from cottage industry of alternative
  forecasts
• How to get probabilities across - customers are
  ambiguity shy (prefer certainty to knowledge)
• Taking a new a new RD focus to 100,000 farmers
  on 1m per year ( if you were lucky)
• The challenge - more attractive to modelers than
  to communicators ( only some could do both at the
  same time!)

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To summarise key investment opportunities

• For RD Strategy to 2014 and our 4 themes -
• Forecasting tropical, especially monsoon / wet
  season and east coast
• Soil, climate water attributes soil moisture
  prediction and on-farm calibration.and
  implications for fertiliser, weeds diseases
• Tools for Agriculture harvest season prediction
• Knowledge, adoption communication data drill
  and multi-week products on WATL
• Commissioned and output focussed RD to maximise
  benefitcost ratio