CCA/UNDAF Preliminary Analysis

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CCA/UNDAFPreliminary Analysis

• Baghdad June 2009

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Summary

• Achievements of transition
• Overarching trends
• Development challenges
• Key areas of concern
• Human rights, justice and security
• Economic development and inclusive growth
• Human development
• Governance
• Development gaps
• Top priorities
• Next steps

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Country in transition security political
improvement

• Security incidents fell by 90 Aug 2007 - Apr
  2009 Casualties down
• Peoples perception of security improved. 80 of
  Iraqis report improvement
• The political process consolidates Regained
  sovereignty successful elections in 2009
  peoples trust in the state increasing

Source Security UNAMI-SSI, Returns UNHCR
(April 2009)
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Country in transition reintegration

• Return of displaced population increased no
  major new displacement.
• Between 60-80 of IDPs would like to return to
  their homes (IOM, HCR)

Yearly totals
Source Security UNAMI-SSI, Returns UNHCR
(April 2009)
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Country in transition socio-economic improvements

• Improved macro-economic stability
• Economic growth
• Contained inflation
• Human development indicators have shown
  improvement
• Improved food security
• Food insecurity down from 15 to 3 (WFP/COSIT 05,
  07)
• Prevalence of wasting in children U5 down since
  1990s (9 in 05 to 4.7 in 07)
• Improved schooling
• Overall increase in enrolment
• Gap between male female education achievements
  narrowed
• Primary school enrolment continues to climb (87
  in 07-8, MOE) and now passed 5m pupils.
• Antenatal care is relatively high 87 of
  pregnancies / 80 of births are attended by
  skilled personnel (IFHS)

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Country in transition

• However, the situation remains fragile and
  reversible

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Overarching trends

• Bigger, fast growing and younger population 31
  million, 43 under 15 yrs
• Iraqs natural resources ecological support
  system in decline
• Higher dependency on highly unstable
  international oil market
• Growth in public sector
• public sector jobs created instead of developing
  private sector
• focus on subsidies at the expense of service
  delivery

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Key challenges to Iraqs transition

• Consolidate peace
• Ensure political participation strengthen
  state-citizen relationship
• Address limitations to womens participation in
  public life
• Sustain improvement in security
• Strengthen rule of law
• ensure protection of basic rights
• Strengthen economic performance
• improve management of resources,
• stimulate private sector, generate economic
  opportunities, particularly for women young
  people
• Enable envt for return and reintegration of IDPs
  and refugees
• Improve access to and quality of basic services,
  esp. for the most vulnerable.
• Address regional disparities improve rural
  standard of living.

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Key areas for Iraqs future development

1. Human rights, security and justice
2. Economic development
3. Human development
4. Governance

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1. Human Rights, Security Justice

• Human rights a major concern. Women particularly
  at risk.
• Civilian casualties still high and security
  institutions(esp. police) need strengthening
• Key message Continued improvements in human
  rights, security and justice are needed for
  national reconciliation, peace, and development

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Landmines and UXOs Iraqs heavily contaminated
More than 3000 suspected mined areas identified
by UN in the 3 Northern Govts.
Large areas with Sub-munitions, UXO and Abandon
munitions contamination
Large border areas with landmine and UXO
contamination
N
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2. Economy Devt Inclusive Growth

• Economic performance affected by dominant public
  sector (44 full-time employment), weak private
  sector, underperforming under-skilled labour
  force.
• Cultural Resources underdeveloped despite high
  potential (e.g. Tourism sector archeological
  and heritage sites)
• Young people women left out (25 of men aged
  20-24 yrs unemployed and 18 of women participate
  in Labour Force)
• 23 of the population under the poverty line,
  high regional disparities, rural population twice
  as poor (IHSES).

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Cultural Heritage
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Youth

• Unemployment Rate () by Age Groups
  (Concentration among young)

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Gender
Men (age 15-64yr)
Women (age 15-64yr)
Full Time (36 of LF)
Part Time (45 of LF)
Unemployed (19 of LF)
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Economic Devt Energy, Rural devt Environment

• Electricity unreliable (daily average of public
  supply 7.9 hrs 22 of population rely on public
  network - IHSES)
• Weak linkages between on and off-farm incomes in
  the rural economy due to lack of value chains
  (e.g. weak, small agro-industry).
• Weak management of natural resources and pressure
  on natural environment strain economic
  development, esp. rural, including agriculture.

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Environment and rural development
39 of all cropland suffered from drought in both
08-09
Source FAO, IAU (2009)
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Key message

• Despite improved macro-economic stability, Iraqs
  economy remains oil dependent, with a weak
  private sector and job market and with few
  opportunities for the poor

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Human Development Indices 2008

• National Report on
• The Status of Human Development 2008
• HDI 0.623
• GDI 0.584
• HPI 18.800
• GEM 0.696

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3. Human Development Education

• Iraqs capacity to nurture the skills of next
  generation is weak
• High gender disparities, e.g. illiteracy esp.
  among rural women (55 rural women aged 15-24
  illiterate, MICS3)
• 40 of students go from primary to secondary
  school (MOE).
• Poor quality and overcrowding one in three
  schools operating double shift (MOE)
• 28 of 17 yr-olds sat final high school exams
  (MOE 2007)
• 40 pass rate in South and Centre

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Human development Health

• Iraq s health status has waned due to
  consecutive wars, violence and inadequate
  public/reproductive health strategies.
• Life expectancy at birth 65yr (1987) / 58yr
  (2006)
• Infant mortality rate 30 per 1,000 live births
  (1984-89) / 35 per 1,000 (2006)
• Poor mental health, particularly among women (Any
  mental disorder Men (8.8) / Women (13.5. IMHS)
• Poor measles immunisation 65 coverage (MICS3)
• Other sectors, such as HIV, also have key issues.
  

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Human development Water sanitation

• 82 HHs outside Baghdad and KRG have no waste
  collection (IHSES)
• Lack of access to safe and reliable water and
  sanitation
• One in 7 children have diahorrea at any one time
  (MICS3)

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Essential Services the public water network

• Network infrastructure exists but is in a state
  of disrepair

19 Are not connected to the general water
network
24 Suffer from more than one interruption a day
Source Iraq Household Socio-Economic Survey
(2007) COSIT/World Bank
13 Suffer from more than one interruption a
week
44 Suffer from less than One interruption a week
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Human development social protection

• Social protection exists but not protecting the
  most vulnerable
• 45 of jobs covered by social insurance
• 1 in 9 children 5-14 years work, higher in rural
  areas, and these children are less likely to
  participate in school - MICS3
• PDS provides great proportion of food consumed
  and improves food security amongst the poorest
• prevalence of hunger low at 7
• But, irregularity leaves poor highly vulnerable
  (Diyala 51 hunger in 2007 when PDS not delivered
  due to violence).

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Human development housing and shelter

• 4 key issues to poor housing growing demand
• Population growth rates
• Levels of overcrowding
• Poor housing conditions and access to basic
  services
• Ongoing issues of internally displaced persons

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Key message human development

• Access to quality services is a key priority and
  requires strong further improvement it is
  central for peace and to re-build the legitimacy
  of the government

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4. Governance

• Perception of state legitimacy, accountability,
  and effectiveness improving, but still weak,
  partly because of slow improvement with services
  and economic opportunities
• Public sector reform urgent but needs to be
  gradual to avoid destabilisation given high
  dependence on state jobs subsidies.
• Budget allocations is key issue
• Weak independent media, environmental and
  cultural resource management needs urgent
  attention.

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Budget Allocation Investment Gap

• 2008 Actual expenditure shares ( of total
  budget)

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Service Delivery Perceptions

• Fuel and Electricity seen improvement in peoples
  perception due to private and public investment
• Service delivery on water, health and education
  less improvement (reflecting lack of investment)

Source ABC Polls (Aug 2007 / Mar 2009)
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Key message

• Improving governance, management of public
  resources, capacity to deliver services and
  generating public debate are critical to
  consolidate peace.

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Development Gaps

• Human capacity
• Strategy to address poverty
• Governance capacity

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Top priorities

• Prioritise sequence interventions with high
  transformative, stabilisation, and peace dividend
  potential
• Address regional and governorate disparities
• Address poverty and unemployment through rural
  development
• Urgent need to focus on women, youth and children

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Next Steps

• Identification of Thematic Areas and Working
  Groups
• Amman Workshop (incl. training on causal
  analysis)
• Causal Analysis conducted by Thematic Working
  Groups culminating on Thematic analysis
  summarizing their results
• Drafting of CCA