?????????????????

1
??????????????????? ????????????????????? 1??????
???????? ?????????????????????? 2????????????? ?
???????????????? 3???????????????????? ?????????
??? 4??????????? ?? ?
2
????????????1????2005?
???
CO2
?????
2005?
5???
1???
(IPCC??4?????2007)
3
??100???0.74??? (20???100??0.6?)
????
??100???17cm?? (???10??3.1cm)
???????
??100??? ?????5? ????200? km2??
???????
1850? 2005?
4
20?????????????????????
????
?????????????????? ?????????????????
??????? ??????? ??????
? ? ? ? ?
??????? ??????? ??????? ???
?
(IPCC??4?????2007)
5
??????????? ??????????? ?????????????????????
?? ????(????)????????????? ???????????????????
CO2?????????pH?????????????
??????????????????????? ???????????CO2?????????
????? ??????????????????????????
??????????????????????????? ????????????????????
??????? ??????????????????????????? IPCC?3????/?
2???????(2001)????
6
??????????????(???)????????
???? ????? ????? ????
????? ????
???CO2 ?????
???? CO2CH4 ????
????? CO2CH4??
7
CO2????CO2??????????????
????? ??????
??????? ??????
??
???CO2??
CO2???
?? 100?? 1000??
(IPCC.????????)
8
?????????????

• ?????????????
• ????????????????????
• ?????????????
• ??????????????
• ??????????????????????
• 21????????????????????????????????????????
• 2????????????????????????????
• ????????????????????????????????????
• ????????????????????????????
• ?????????????????????????????(?????2006)?

9
??????????????? ??????????????? ? ????????????2?C
????? ? ???CO2???450ppm?????? ????470ppm????400ppm
???? ? 2050???????CO2???50???? ????????70?80????
? ? ?????????????? ???????????? ?????????????
10
???CO2???450ppm?????????? CO2???????????????????
450ppm??? ????????
11
2005?? ??? 13.6??? 1990?? 7.8??
12
??????? ???28??? ?????79? ????11? ??????? ????
??? ??????? ????????
(?????????2007)
(???????)
13
?????????????????????

• ???????????
• ????????(???????????CO2???11)
• ????????????????????(70????85)?
• ?????????????????
• ???????????????????
• ???????????
• ???????????????????
• ??
• ??????????????
• ??????????????????
• ???(???)?????????
• ???????????
• ????????????????
• ?????????????????(?????RPS?)
• ??????????
• ???

14
?????? ?????? CO2?11?? ?????? ??????
??????????????????
(?????????2007)
15
???????? ????????? ???(2006?)
??(??)???9?? ??????????? ???????????
??????????????????
16
???CO2??????????

• 1990??2003?
• ?? ???????? ???????
• ?? 12.8 ??
• ??? -18.2 2020?40??(GHG)
• 2050?60?80??(GHG)
• ???? - 13.0 2050?60????(CO2)
• ????? 6.8 2030?50??(CO2)
• ???? - 1.9 2050?75??(2000???CO2)
• ???? 1.5 2020?30??(GHG)
• ?????? - 2.3 2050?50????(GHG)
• ??? - 0.4 2050?50??(????)
• ??? -24.2 2020?30??(2000??? GHG)
• ????? 9.3 2050?100??(GHG)
• ????? 2030?100??(GHG)
• GHG???????

17
2050????CO2?80???????? ???????????????8?toe(NEDO
)
? ? ? ? 1 0 0 ? t
???
????
??
?????????
??
???????????????????????????21?????????????????????
??????????? (????????? Vol.4?2005?
???????????????????????????? 1999-2000?1999??????
)
18
??????? ????????? ?????????
????????????
???????????(2000??)
??????? ??????
(???????????2002, ?????????2005)
19
????????????????????? ???????????? ??????????????
??? ???????????????????????????????
???????????????????3R????? ??????????????????
??? ??????????(????????????????)
????????????(????????????) ????????????????(????
???) ???????????????????? ??????????????????
???????????????????????? ????????????????????????
??? ???????????????????? ??????????????
20
??????????????? ?????????????????1?(?????1991)
???????3?4?????????????6?7?
??????CO2????3.0(90?),1.2(06?)
(EPA,2008) ???????20????(760kl)/??? ??????????
???????????????? ????732?????8?????10?l/d?????
CO2?5?????????????2.5 ???????????????5.7?kl
/????? CO2?15???/????1????4.5???
?????????01.12?07.10??48?klCO2130?t ????????????
????????????? ?????????????????????HCl??
????????????????????????
21
??????????????? ??????????
1990-2005??????????????????(IEA,2007)
22
???????????????????(???)???????????????????????
(IEA,2007 ?????????)
23

???
??
?????
????????????????1990???? ???????????????(IEA ???
BMU, 2007)

24
?????????????????

• ???????????70?80????
• ?????????????30?50????
• ?????????????20????
• ???????????????????????????????????2??
• ????????????????????
• ?????????????????
• ?????????????????
• ??????????????
• ?????????????????????!

25
?????????????????? ??????????????????????????(RPS?
)?(2003?4???) ? ??????????????????????????????(?
???????????????)???????????????????????????????? ?
????????2010????????(???)???122?kWh(?????1.35)?2
014????160?kWh(?1.6) ????????????? ?????????????
????????????????????????????????????????????? ????
??2???????????2??????
26
???????????????????????????RPS?
???????????????????????????
???????2010?1.35(????12?????10)
?????????? RPS????????
????????? ?????????
(RPS???????2006.11.???????)
27
?????????????????
????????????? ????????????? ????????????? ????????
????? ?? ????????????? ????????????? ?????????????
?? ????????????? ?????????? ???????????? ????????
??????? ??????????????? ??????????????? ?(???????)
???? ??????(13?)???
????????????????
????? ?????
??
????
1?5?? ??????
??
(?)2006??? ??3.6???? 2015??????
???
??????????/????
28
???????????????
FIT?????
RPS?????
RPS(?????????)????FIT(????????) ???????1990?2005??
?????????????? ?????????????(IEA,2007,???????)
29
??????????????????? ?????????????? ?????????????G
DP5?20? ???????GDP?1??(?????2006)
???GDP?500???15?? ??????????????????????????
????????????????????? 2008????
????4?7426?? ????????2083??
?????7?7869??????????4?8626?? ?????????????
30
????????(??????????? )??????(???????????
)?????????

• ??????????????????????????????????????????????
• ??????????????NPO????????????????CO2??????
• ??????????????CO2????????
• ?????????????????????????
• ??????????????????
• ????????????????
• ??????????????????
• ???????????????
• ????????(????????????)??????????????????????????
  ????????????????
• ??????????????????????

31
???????????????????????????????????????????????
???????????????????

• ????????????????????????????????/?????????????????
  
• ??/?????????????????????????????????
• ??/???????????????????????????????????
• ?????????????????????????????????????????

32
?????????????????(1983?2004?)
?80???????????
DWIA???????
33
??????????????????? ??????????(1978???)?????????
??????????????????????????????????????????????????
?????????????? ????????????????????????
??????????? ???????????????????85?
?????????????????? ????????????30??(1980-2?)
?????????????89?????? ????????????CO2???? ??????
????????????????? ??????????????? ??????????????
????????? ??????????????
34
??????????????????? ????????????(EEG)2000???.20
04??? ???????????????????????????????????????20???
????????????????????????????????(??????????)? ????
???????? ? ???/20?????? (?????????????????????????
????????????????????????????????) ????????????????
????????????? ???????????????????? ???????????????
???????(??3??)?????????????????????? ????????2010
????????12.5(?????????)????2007??14.2???????2020
???27?2030??45????????????
35
??????????????????
36
???????????????????
37
??????????????????CO2???? 2007?????7900?t????2070
?t???1270?t?? 1?1400?t
?? ??? ??
(BMU,2008)
38
????????????????????????????
(BMU,2008)
39
??????????????(NEF?IEA???????) ?????25????????????
????????
40
??????????
???????????71?? ?????3?????????20???? ????????
??????????97.6? ?????66.7??????????64.3?
?????57.1??????47.6? ?????????45.2??????42
.9
?? ?? ??/ kW
????? 164 1040.4
?????? 10 14790.0
?????? 10 7.4
????? 1 5.5
?? 185 15843.3
41
???????????? ?????????????????????? ? ??????????
??????? ? ??????????????? ?????????????
???????????????? ?
? ????????????? ?????????????? ?
? ????????????(??)????NPO? ? ????????????????????
???? ? ???????????????????????? (????????????????
?????????????)
42
????

• ?????????
• ????????????????
• ???????????????!
• ??????????????????
• ?????????????????
• ????????????????.
• ?????????????????!
• Think globally, act locally!
• ????????????????!
• Think of the future, act now!(by T.Wada)