Determining future supply and demand for teachers

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Determining future supply and demand for teachers
Centre for Education Statistics Elementary-Seconda
ry Section

• Ginette Gervais
• Isabelle Thony

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Presentation content

• The demography of Elementary/Secondary
  Educational Staff in Canadas Schools
• - Supply and Demand Model
• - Supply Factors
• - Demand Factors
• - Preliminary Results
• - Future Issues

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Simple model of teacher supply and demand

• Similar to the Cohort Component Method
• The model takes the population distributed by age
  at a base date and carries it forward in time,
  cohort by cohort, on the basis of separate
  allowances for attrition.

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Simple model of teacher supply and demand

• supply current complement of teachers
  graduates - retirements net migration
• demand school-aged population
• x participation rate /
  pupil-educator ratio
• supply - demand surplus or shortage

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Supply factors

• Current complement of teachers
• Existing teaching staff
• full-time public elementary-secondary educators
• Entries to profession
• Teacher education graduates
• Qualified new immigrants
• Career changes (other qualified people)
• Reentrants
• Departures from profession
• Attrition
• retirements, emigration, career changes
• disability/deaths, leave and resignation
• Termination
• Policy (I.e. retirement benefit levels)

Centre for Education Statistics,
Elementary-Secondary Section
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Relationship of Job to education and use of
acquired skills on the job for 1995 university
graduates employed full-time in June 1997, by
field of study
Source National Graduate Survey
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Immigrant educators landing in Nova Scotia by the
top ten country of last permanent residence,
1986-2000
Source Citizenship and Immigration Canada
8
Immigrant educators landing in Ontario by the top
ten country of last permanent residence, 1986-2000
Source Citizenship and Immigration Canada
9
Immigrant educators landing in British Columbia
by the top ten country of last permanent
residence, 1986-2000
Source Citizenship and Immigration Canada
10
Median age at retirement by industry,and change
over time
Source Labour force According to last job
prior to retirement.
11
Educators in Canada 1998 to 2010based on to 2
projection scenarios
Source Centre for Education Statistics
12
Educators in Nova Scotia 1998 to 2010based on to
2 projection scenarios
Source Centre for Education Statistics
13
Educators in Ontario 1998 to 2010based on to 2
projection scenarios
Source Centre for Education Statistics
14
Educators in British Columbia 1998 to 2010based
on to 2 projection scenarios
Source Centre for Education Statistics
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Demand factors

• Expansion/contraction
• Enrolment
• School-aged population
• Policy (i.e. class sizes)
• Pupil-educator ratio
• Technology

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A work in progress

• Other components of supply and demand that could
  eventually be incorporated
• School level
• Subject taught
• Educators by staff position
• Gender
• Public vs. private sector
• Rural area vs. urban area
• Large schools vs. small schools
• Micro data simulation model
• Input welcome

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Determining future supply and demand for teachers
Centre for Education Statistics Elementary-Seconda
ry Section

• Ginette Gervais, [phone]
• e-mail gervgin_at_statcan.ca
• Isabelle Thony, [phone]
• e-mail thonisa_at_statcan.ca
• Fax number [phone]

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• Cohort-Component Method
• A population forecast is a projection in which
  the assumptions are considered to yield a
  realistic picture of the probable future
  development of a population. Although the
  projection period is variable, short term
  forecasts are the rule, as the margin of error to
  which forecasts are subject increases
  considerably as the length of the forecast's
  period increases. The most frequently used method
  of projection is the component method or
  cohort-component method which takes the
  population distributed by age and sex at a base
  date and carries it forward in time, cohort by
  cohort, on the basis of separate allowances for
  fertility, mortality and migration. When matrix
  algebra is used for component projections, the
  method is sometimes called matrix method of
  projection.
• Sabbatical Leave
• is an authorized period of leave without pay, but
  with an allowance in lieu of salary, for a
  specified duration (normally twelve (12) months
  or less) during which time eligible UTs, while
  remaining employees, shall be relieved of their
  normal teaching and administrative obligations as
  a means of providing them with an opportunity to
  pursue research or other scholarly activities
  thereby improving their knowledge of a particular
  discipline and enhancing their professional
  competence.