PACOM Socio-Economic Challenges

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PACOM Socio-Economic Challenges

• TSDM 21
• Source NWC Faculty

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IndiaBasic Facts

• Population 1.189 Billion
• Age structure (0-14 yrs)
• 187,450,635 males 165,415,758 females
• Life expectancy at birth 66.8 years
• Head of Government Prime Minister Manmohan
  SINGH Chief of State President Pratibha
  Devisingh PATIL
• GDP (PPP basis) 4.060 trillion (compare with
  China 10.090 trillion United States 14.660
  trillion)
• GDP Real Growth Rate 10.4 (2010 est.)
• Labor force 478.3 million
• Labor force by occupation
• Agriculture 52
• Industry 14
• Services 34
• Population below the poverty line 25
• Public debt 51.9 of GDP

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Worlds Largest Economies 8 are Located within
the Asia-Pacific region
India (5th Largest)
numbers are based on purchasing power parity and
are 2010 year estimates accessed from
https//www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world
-factbook/rankorder/2001rank.html?countryNameIndi
acountryCodeinregionCodesasrank5in
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India Mass Protests against Government
Corruption (Jan 2011)
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Illegal Migration/Trans-border Crime Concerns
India builds border fence next to Bangladesh
(Tripura)
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Kashmir Key Flashpoint in South Asia
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Pakistani Helicopter patrols Line of Control
(near Siachen)in Pakistani-administered Kashmir
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ASEAN Basics (part 1)

• The Association of Southeast Asian Nations
  (ASEAN) was founded on August 8, 1967
• With adoption of the ASEAN Declaration in
  Bangkok, Thailand
• Originally, ASEAN had 5 members (Indonesia,
  Malaysia, Philippines, Singapore and Thailand)
• Expanded to its current 10 (with addition of
  Brunei Darussalam, Vietnam, Laos, Burma and
  Cambodia)
• Formation of the organization reflected an
  attempt to forge independent foreign policies in
  the context of Cold War pressures.
• On February 24, 1976, ASEAN created the ASEAN
  Secretariat, located in Jakarta, Indonesia
  (headed by a Secretary-General, who serves a
  five-year term)

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ASEAN Basics (part 2)

• The ASEAN Charter
• The new ASEAN Charter went into effect on
  December 15, 2007, superseding the ASEAN
  Declaration the Charter is effectively a
  constitution for ASEAN, committing the member
  states to create an ASEAN Community in
  furtherance of peace, progress and prosperity of
  its peoples.
• Some new goals include (1) maintenance of peace,
  stability and security in the region (2)
  promotion of greater political, security,
  economic and socio-cultural cooperation (3)
  preservation of SE Asia as an are free of weapons
  of mass destruction (including nuclear weapons)
  (4) creation of a just, democratic and harmonious
  environment in the region

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ASEAN Basics (part 3)

• ASEAN has a number of subsidiary or associated
  groups, including
• ASEAN Regional Forum (ARF)
• Established in 1994, with 26 Asian and Pacific
  states (plus European Union) to facilitate
  dialogue on political and security matters in the
  region
• ASEAN 3 (APT)
• Includes ASEAN members plus China, Japan and
  South Korea created in 1997 partly as response
  to Asian economic crisis, and partly as a way to
  balance northeast Asian power in the security
  dialogue process with ASEAN
• East Asia Summit (EAS)
• Created in 2005 includes ASEAN 3 members, plus
  Australia, New Zealand and India (Japan and other
  countries wanted the non-East Asian powers
  included to balance against China) also referred
  to as ASEAN 6
• East Asian Community (EAC)
• Still in the early, conceptual state vision is
  to create an EU-style association of Asian
  nations.
• APEC (separate but parallel organization to
  ASEAN)
• APEC Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation
• APEC works to facilitate economic growth,
  cooperation, trade and investment in the
  Asia-Pacific region. (It has 21 member
  countries, including many non-East Asian
  countries, including Peru, Chile, Mexico, United
  States, Russian Federation)
• ASEAN is one of three official observers in APEC

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How the Economic Crisis (97/98) significantly
changed Chinas geopolitical position in Asia

• China refrained from devaluing its currency
  (which helped contain the crisis)
• Chinas credentials as a responsible rising
  power were strengthened
• China was able to shape the creation of the ASEAN
  3 (APT) framework

Shenzhen Container Port
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ASEAN 3 (China, Japan, S. Korea), known as APT

• The APT was established in 1997 (during economic
  crisis) includes ASEAN members China, Japan,
  S. Korea
• Designed to foster cooperation in 20 areas,
  ranging from security issues, to transnational
  crime, tourism, health, environment, science and
  technology
• http//www.aseansec.org/19105.htm
• ASEAN and China have signed 5 documents in the
  political/security field (including on subjects
  such as South China Sea and nontraditional
  security)
• China wants to create free trade zone within APT
  framework, while Japan wants to expand number of
  countries

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East Asian Summit (EAS)

• Designed to foster exchange of views on regional
  political and economic issues
• First EAS was held on 14 December 2005
• East Asian Summit could provide the framework for
  future East Asian Community
• In addition to APT, EAS includes India, Australia
  and New Zealand (believed to have been included
  to balance Chinese power) 2011 US and Russia
  will join (or have been invited)
• Chinas view multilateral institutions in SE
  Asia can advance Beijings foreign policy
  interests (not viewed any longer as constraint to
  PRC power)

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Where is terrorism in Asia? (It may not be
where you think)
Attacks Dead Wounded Hostages Victims
Iraq 3,183 4,123 14,100 113 18.336
Afghanistan 3,950 3,826 5,792 1,172 10,790
Pakistan 1,782 2,709 5,591 623 8,923
India 1,048 905 1,070 423 2,398
Thailand 519 356 878 6 1,240
Philippines 295 231 346 230 807
Nepal 44 14 100 0 114
Indonesia 19 12 29 0 41
Bangladesh 7 2 12 0 14
Sri Lanka 2 0 3 0 3
Malaysia 1 0 0 0 0
North Korea 1 0 0 0 0
Data covers time period 1/1/10 to 12/31/10 data
source National Counterterrorism Center (NCTC)
database https//wits.nctc.gov/FederalDiscoverWIT
S/index.do?N0
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Thailands Insurgency in the South

• Limited mainly to 3 provinces Yala, Pattani and
  Narathiwat (near Thai-Malaysia border)
• Thailand annexed the 3 provinces in 1902,
  although people are Muslim and speak Malay
  dialect
• More than 4,300 people have died (since 2004)

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Insurgency in Southern Philippines

• Key groups
• Moro Islamic Liberation Front (MILF)
• Moro National Liberation Front (MNLF)
• Abu Sayyaf
• New Peoples Army

MILF members
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Violence in Xinjiang (China)(burned bus in 5
July 2009 riots)
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Maoist Insurgency in India
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China is Emerging as the Most Significant Player
in Global Energy Markets
Source International Energy Outlook 2010, Dept
of Energy, Energy Information Agency
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Chinas SLOC Dilemma

• ???????????????, ???????????? the Malacca
  Strait is Chinas maritime oil lifeline, for
  Chinas economic security it is akin to breathing
  itself. XDJC, December 2004
• ?????????95?????, ??80???????? ...
  ???...????.. ??????????, ??????,
  ???????????????... -- Currently, 95 of China's
  oil imports are transported by sea of this, 80
  transit the Malacca Strait. This strait is easy
  to blockade ... but this mission is beyond the
  power of China's Navy, so that if this occurs,
  then China's resource security will be gravely
  compromised. JZWQ, June 2006

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