GREX APPLES

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GREX APPLES PEARS 10 March 2008 Brussels
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Southern Hemisphere crop forecasts 2008
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Southern hemisphere crop forecasts
Argentina
Apples
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Southern hemisphere crop forecasts
Argentina
Pears
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Southern hemisphere crop forecasts
Argentina
Notes on 2008 season

• Though the current season is not so mild, it
  foresees good quality standards.
• The control programs against codling moths are
  increasing and consolidating as an effective
  technique against the disease.
• Pear harvest started 21 January with 1 week delay
  because social conflicts with fruit pickers.
  Apple harvest started 28 January.
• Late rains and delayed picking have affected the
  forecasted crop downwards by approximately 3.

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Southern hemisphere crop forecasts

• Australia

Apples
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Southern hemisphere crop forecasts

• Australia

Pears
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Southern hemisphere crop forecasts
Australia
Notes on 2008 season

• Seasonal conditions have been much more
  favourable for the 2008 crop, quality and size of
  all varieties should be better than 2007.
• Growing conditions have been milder with more
  rainfall in most areas supporting excellent fruit
  quality in 2008.
• There have also been some rationalisation of
  plantings in some areas, most notably the removal
  of Williams pears in the Goulburn Valley.

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Southern hemisphere crop forecasts

• Brazil

Apples
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Southern hemisphere crop forecasts
Brazil
Notes on 2008 season

• Winter was one of the best of the last 10 years.
• This season has been marked so far by local heavy
  rains during the blooming, all regions were not
  affected the same way, a reduction of 10
  compared to last year is estimated.
• Blossom was concentrated.
• Quality is considered good and size above
  average. Colour is considered very good.
• Hail hasnt been a major preoccupation so far.
  Regularity of rain during the season has been
  good. No extreme temperatures so far.
• Picking has started week 5 and on week 6 all
  growers are full speed, one week earlier than
  estimated.
• Effect of this advance on crop estimate?

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Southern hemisphere crop forecasts

• Chile

Apples
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Southern hemisphere crop forecasts
Chile
Notes on 2008 Season

• Expected uplift in the exports of apples in
  regards to the previous season 6 8 uplift
• Galas, Fujis and red delicious expected to grow
  the most
• In general the size of the fruit seems to be
  normal however given the high temperatures in
  December and January, the size could be affected.
  
• The incidence of sun spots could also occur, at
  the same level as last year.
• Higher incidence of apples being diverted to
  local agro industry and processing given
  increase in local market prices.
• The production of apples in general may be a week
  later than last season.
• Slow movement seen on the European market so far
  whilst local European stock is up by 5 this
  season. Need for caution.
• Importers turning toward Eastern Europe in bid to
  alleviate the market, given lower production and
  stock levels in this region.

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Southern hemisphere crop forecasts

• Chile

Pears
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Southern hemisphere crop forecasts
Chile
Notes on 2008 Season

• Expected normal season for pears
• Slight uplift in terms of volumes (3 4)
• Main varieties to register increases in export
  volumes are Forelle and Coscia, and to a lesser
  degree Abate Fatel and Beurre Bosc.
• Green varieties will most probably be more evenly
  distributed in terms of sizes, in regards to last
  season
• Harvest of pear varieties (Coscia) expected to be
  1 week later compared to last season.

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Southern hemisphere crop forecasts

• New Zealand

Apples
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Southern hemisphere crop forecasts

• New Zealand

Pears
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Southern hemisphere crop forecasts
New Zealand
Notes on 2008 season

• Notable trend for NZ is a reduction in Braeburn
  and an increase in Jazz.
• Spring frosts in Hawkes Bay have reduced the NZ
  crop 18,000 tonnes less than 2007. Most affected
  variety is Braeburn.
• Size is similar to 2007
• Harvest looks to be up to one week later than
  2007
• The NZ dollar is as strong against the US as
  last year. It is likely that exporters will look
  to Europe and Asia where possible for markets.

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Southern hemisphere crop forecasts

• South Africa

Apples
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Southern hemisphere crop forecasts

• South Africa

Pears
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Southern hemisphere crop forecasts
South Africa
Notes on 2008 season

• Decreasing trend in Granny and Golden hectares
  seem to have stabilised.
• Decreasing trend in total hectares for both
  apples and pears expected to stop during 2008 and
  possible increases over the next 3-5 years.
• Forelle exports expected to grow for at least
  next 5-8 years (due to increase in hectares).
• Experienced very good winter adequate cold
  units and enough water
• Flood damage to Langkloof production area, but
  this will not have a severe impact on total
  production.
• Producers have been made aware of possibility of
  smaller fruit.
• Exchange rate favourable for exports at the
  moment (hopefully it will stay stable throughout
  the season).
• Sharp increase in input costs, especially
  transport (road and shipping) as well as direct
  production costs.
• Season approximately 10-14 days late

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Southern Hemisphere crop forecasts
Consolidated figures total production
Apples
Pears
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Southern Hemisphere crop forecasts
Consolidated figures export production
Apples
Pears
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Southern Hemisphere exports
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International apples and pears marketsExchange
rates - vs
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International apples and pears marketsExchange
rates SH currencies
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Southern Hemisphere exportsApples
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EU License monitoring systemComparison with
SHAFFE data (w 41)
Countries SHAFFE data License monitoring
Argentina 101.077 109.587
Brasil 101.860 102.489
Chile 231.573 209.047
New Zealand 181.381 197.745
South Africa 170.100 157.358
TOTAL 785.976 776.226