Topics in Development Economics: Country Risk Analysis

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Topics in Development EconomicsCountry Risk
Analysis

• By
• Novella Bottini

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How to contact me

• Office Hour Check on liuc.it
• Tower building
• 4th floor
• E-Mail nbottini_at_liuc.it

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Course Structure (1)

• 7 Lectures
• Class Attendance is required (min 5/7)
• Lively Class Participation is expected
• The Economist 10 minutes presentation

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Course Structure (2)

• Course Material
• Book Country Risk Assessment
• Authors Bouchet, Clark and
  Groslambert
• Eds. Wiley, 2003.
• Additional readings references are provided by
  the lecturer
• Slides available on line after the lesson.
• Final Evaluation individual essay class
  participation

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Individial Assignment

• Choose a Developing Country
• Country risk analysis using both the qualitative
  and quantative methodologies.
• 2000 words (Excluding graphs and charts)
• Submission by email 17th May 2010 (not accepted
  earlier or later submission!).

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Course Structure (2)
Lecture I-II Why this course? Trends in global market and emerging markets features
Lecture III Definition of Risk
Lecture IV-VI The Qualitative Approach to Country Risk Analysis and its Economic Foundation
Lecture VII CRA Ratings Agencies Approach
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• Lecture 1
• Why this course?
• Trends in global market.

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Why a Course on Country Risk Analysis?

• What does Country Risk Analysis mean?
• Who could be interested in this analysis?

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Why a Course on Country Risk Analysis?

• Is it an hot topic?
• Why are we interested in other countries risk
  level?
• Why is it linked to Development Issues?
• Does it regard only Developing Countries?

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Globalisation def and features

• What is Globalisation?
• Which elements are involved in the globalisation
  process?
• Process whereby domestic product, capital and
  labour markets become more integrated across
  borders
• Is it a new phenomenon?

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Globalisationmain drivers

• Technological Change
• Speed of transportation and communication
• New tradable goods
• Political changes
• Chinas economic reform
• Fall of Berlin Wall
• Collapse of Soviet Union
• Economic Policy choice
• Export-oriented policies
• WTO
• Bilateral and regional agreements.

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Globalisations Elements

• GOODS

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Trade Exposure
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Trade and Transaction Costs
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Phone Calls
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Composition of World Trade
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Offshoring Production Relocation
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Intermediate Goods
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Offshoring Definition
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Not only Goods
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Service Sector
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Service Sector
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Globalisations Elements

• CAPITAL

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Capital an heterogeneous identity
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International Capital Flows Trends
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International Capital Flows Developing Countries
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International Capital Flows and emerging markets
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References

• OECD (2007)Economic Outlook Making the Most
  of Globalisation.
• World Bank (2007) Global Economic Prospects
  Managing the Next Wave of Globalisation, chapter
  1-2.
• WTO (2008)World Trade Report Trade in a
  Globalizing World.
• Bottini, Ernst, Luebker (2007) Offshoring and
  the labour market what are the issues?, ILO
  working paper.