The Cost of Fires:

1
The Cost of Fires

• Implications for our Economy and
• Cal Fire Staffing
• Matt Rahn, Ph.D.
• San Diego State University

2
Scope of Project

• Review of 2003 fire events in San Diego County
• Economic Assessment of Cost and Loss
• Estimate of Savings and Staffing Benefits
• Recommendations and Support for Cal Fire

3
Cost of Fires In California
From 1975-2002 CDF Statistics
4
Review Process

• Literature Review
• Documents, reports, other studies
• Estimates vs. Real Numbers
• Conservative Approach

5
5 key areas
6
Impacts

• 375,917 acres
• The 2003 Cedar Fire burned 237,246 acres
• largest fire in California's history
• 3,241 homes lost
• 16 lives lost
• 6,635 peak crew

7
100 Million
8
147 Million
9
(No Transcript)
10
Impact to Natural Areas
Category Cost Per Acre Percent
Watershed Restoration 47,183,333 126 3.4
Hazard Mitigation 14,000,000 37 1
11
(No Transcript)
12
Impact to Business
Category Cost Per Acre Percent
Estimate of Work and Business Loss 365,500,000 972 15
Unemployment Insurance 400,000,000 1,064 16.3
13
(No Transcript)
14
Community Impact
Category Cost Per Acre Percent
FEMA 307,500,000 818 12.5
Donations Grants 10,773,560 29 1
Property Loss 1,164,955,197 3,099 47.5
15
Theoretical Costs

• Ecosystem Services
• Storm Water Runoff Impact (25 million)
• Air Pollution Reductions By Vegetation (1
  million)
• Habitat/Species (Unknown)
• Water Quality (Unknown)
• Air Pollution (Unknown)

16
(No Transcript)
17
(No Transcript)
18
(No Transcript)
19
Recommendations

• Increases in Staffing
• Increases in Resources
• Potential legislative solutions
• Education and Outreach
• Economic Analysis Task Force

20
Phase II

• 2009-2011

21
Initial Attack Effectiveness and Staffing Study

• Staffing/Resources
• Engine Staffing
• Staff Variables
• Environmental Conditions
• Primary (Temperature, RH, Wind, Slope, Fuel Type)
• Secondary (fire history, land management, habitat
  type)
• Landscape Complexity
• Configuration
• Complexity
• Continuity

22
Project Goals

• Increase understanding of how staffing impacts
  outcome
• Support decision making, resource allocation, and
  staffing
• Understand how staffing levels, resource
  availability, and environmental conditions
  influence the initial attack effectiveness and
  overall wildfire response and control.

23
Methods

• Controlled Experiments (Aug 2009-Apr 2010)
• Training/Education (May-June 2010)
• Real-World Fire Assessments (2010-2011)
• 24-30 months
• CDF Firefighters, CAL FIRE, SDSU Field Stations