Wildland Fire Decision Support

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Wildland Fire Decision Support System
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DevelopersWildland Fire RDA NIFC Research
Partnership withWO and RO FAMBerni Bahro
Regional Fuel Manager - Planning
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WFDSS Goals

• a scaleable decision support system
• for agency administrators
• utilizes appropriate fire behavior modeling,
• economic principles,
• and information technology
• to support effective wildland fire decisions
  consistent with
• Resource and Fire Management Plans.

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Not a Cost Cutting Tool

• Giving decision makers the right information at
  the right time.
• Hopefully more informed decisions will produce
  cost savings.

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Planned WFDSS Implementation

• Completed by 2009
• Work started in fall of 2006
• Accelerated development for 2007
• Hardware arriving at Kansas City
• Interface development
• OPEN AND TRANSPARENT
• Easy to use Fire Behavior Tools
• User training

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Six Modules

• Situation Assessment Module A WFDSS project is
  created. Also provides spatial tools for defining
  and updating the fire perimeter.
• Fire Behavior Module Support for spatial fire
  modeling systems.
• Course(s) of Action Module Users define
  alternatives for managing an incident.

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Six Modules

• Impact Analysis Module Economic and resource
  analysis tools to quantify Values at Risk within
  the context of a fire spread probability grid.
  Suppression cost estimates will be available from
  a Stratified Cost Index.
• Decision Module Supports analysis and
  comparison of alternatives.
• Report Module Generate the WFSA and WFIP
  reports, or a replacement thereof. Limited
  reporting capabilities for the initial
  deployment.

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2007 Implementation

• Module 2 Fire Behavior Module
• FSPro
• Module 4 - Impact Analysis Module
• RAVAR
• Stratified Cost Index

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Spatial Fire Modeling Systems
1 Fire
All Fires
1 Weather Scenario
FARSITE
FlamMap
All Weather Scenarios
FPA
FSPro
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2007 WFDSS Priorities

• Fires of national Significance
• FSPro/RAVAR/SCI required
• Fires of Regional Significance
• FSPro/RAVAR suggested
• SCI required
• Other fires
• As capacity allows

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Line Officer Certification Large Fire Proposal
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Evolution of SCI

• Congressional appropriation language (2005) asked
  for a variety of interim performance measures for
  suppression expenditures including a stratified
  cost index originally specified as cost per
  acre/energy release component
• After discussions between FAM and researchers,
  it was decided the SCI would assess a variety of
  factors that influence suppression expenditures,
  rather than focusing solely on energy release
  component.

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What is the SCI?

• Regression Models for Predicting Suppression
  Expenditures on Individual Large Fires
• 2/3 models ? (western U.S. and eastern U.S.)
• Data Fire expenditure and fire occurrence
  information for the past ten years (approximately
  1,500 fires)
• FS expenditures only
• Fires used to develop models restricted to
• Large fires 100 acres (pre-2003) 300 acres
  (2003-present)
• Fires where the FS was the recorded protection
  agency and most of the acres were FS

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SCI in WFDSS

• Fire characteristics are either entered by user
  or calculated by program (still in progress)
• Expected cost of fire is calculated.
• Fire managers provided with an indication of how
  the cost of their fire compares to historical
  costs

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Example of SCI Output in WFDSS

• 33 of fires with similar characteristics had
  cost less than 160/ac.
• 50 of fires with similar characteristics had
  cost less than 280/ac.
• 67 of fires with similar characteristics had
  cost less than 490/ac.
• 75 of fires with similar characteristics had
  cost less than 650/ac.
• 80 of fires with similar characteristics had
  cost less than 810/ac.
• 90 of fires with similar characteristics had
  cost less than 1,400/ac.
• Green Contributes towards Management Efficiency
  Goals.
• Yellow Caution
• Red High Cost Potential Fire May Not Contribute
  to Management Efficiencies.

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SCI in WFDSS (cont.)

• If costs for a fire are high relative to fires
  with similar characteristics, managers should
  provide justification for high costs.
• These types of justifications can be supported by
  WFDSS-FSPro in terms of potential fire behavior
  and WFDSS-RAVAR in terms of values at risk.

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SCI - A Work In Progress

• There are still data problems as data improves,
  accuracy of SCI should improve.
• Current models are non-spatial based on ignition
  point and start time further improvements will
  include more spatially-explicit data as it
  becomes available.

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• Some fires the indicated Values at Risk were not
  there?
• Monetized and non monetized issues.

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• Historical Data (ERC and Wind) FFPlus
• Fuels Data
• Projected ERC
• Perimeter or point source
• Values at Risk local and national sources
• Resource Values watersheds, habitats, late
  succession forest reserves, etc.
• The A Mentor Team w/Regional / Geographic Area
  Rookies (3/region)

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Cautions

• Not magic same old fire behavior models
• Skilled analyst needs eyes on the fire
• GIGO
• No recent fires in LandFire data
• Under construction
• Someone still has to make decisions

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It Works and it is Better!
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Review What I know today

• Hardware Purchase
• 4 (16 processor) servers
• Interface development
• Current work in progress
• Training in May
• Missoula the week of May 25
• Web based
• Types of users
• 4 kinds of access

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Unanswered Questions

• My web access is a dial-up
• Your not a fire of national significance
• You need fuels data to run the fire models
• Weather for FARSITE, gridded winds
• Smoke management
• Information/contacts

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Thank You
Wildland Fire Decision Support System
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