The Cuban Missile Crisis, October 1962

1
The Cuban Missile Crisis, October 1962

• PO 326 American Foreign Policy

2
The Cuban Missile Crisis

• Closest the two superpowers came to a nuclear
  exchange during the Cold War
• Resulted when USSR secretly placed medium and
  intermediate-range ballistic missiles and nuclear
  warheads in Cuba
• Crisis intimately linked to other strategic
  situations between the superpowers (e.g., US
  missiles in Eastern Hemisphere, Berlin situation)
• Most regularly examined crisis by analysts of
  foreign policy decision-making (well-documented,
  unimaginable consequences)

3
The Progression of the Crisis

• 1. USSR secretly places missiles in Cuba (6
  September)
• Hidden in cargo ships
• Buildup of Soviet forces to construct/operate
  missiles, repel US invasion
• Done in wake of Soviet assertions that no
  offensive weapons would be placed in Cuba
• 2. American U-2 reconnaissance plane discovers
  Soviet missiles (14 October)
• Complete surprise to US officials
• U-2 not fired upon by SAMs, though they were
  operational

4
The Progression of the Crisis

• 3. American foreign policy chiefs debate the USs
  course of action (beginning 14 October)
• Formation of ExComm (SecState, SecDef, NSA, VP,
  AG, CIA chief, Stevenson, Acheson, Deputies,
  Experts)
• Linkage to situation in Berlin
• Diplomatic track, trade essentially eliminated as
  options at early points
• Three main options settled upon as menu of
  choice
• Surgical air strike
• Large air strike followed by invasion
• Quarantine (blockade)
• Blockade chosen

5
The Progression of the Crisis

• 4. President Kennedy addresses nation concerning
  crisis (22 October) initiation of public
  confrontation
• Demands withdrawal of missiles
• Announces quarantine order
• Place US strategic forces on full alert
• Warns USSR that any missile launched from Cuba
  will be regarded as a Soviet missile, requiring a
  full retaliatory response by the US against the
  USSR

6
The Progression of the Crisis

• 5. Khrushchev orders Soviet forces to full alert,
  threatens retaliation against US ships if
  boarding attempted (24 October)
• Soviet ships head toward quarantine line most
  turn back, and only one ship boarded
• Missile readiness program sped up by Soviets
• 6. Khrushchev offers withdrawal of missiles in
  exchange for non-invasion pledge in letter to
  Kennedy (26 October)
• Conciliatory, emotional response
• Recognition of crisis as potentially
  uncontrollable

7
The Progression of the Crisis

• 7. Khrushchev sends second letter demanding US
  withdraw missiles in Turkey in exchange for
  Soviet missile withdrawal from Cuba (27 October)
• Letter likely the product of hard-line Politburo
  revision
• US Jupiter missiles in Turkey obsolete, but
  outright trade would be victory for USSR
• SAMs open fire on US planes U-2 shot down

8
The Progression of the Crisis

• 8. US responds favorably to first letter, but
  warns of imminent air strike or invasion if
  missiles not withdrawn by 28 October (27 October)
• Both countries prepare for nuclear war, as per
  likely courses of action (US attack, USSR attacks
  Jupiters and Berlin, US retaliates and resists in
  Berlin, full nuclear exchange)
• RFK meets with Dobrynin modified trade
• 9. Khrushchev announces withdrawal of missiles
  (28 October)

9
Reflections on the Crisis

• Any of a number of small changes in this process
  could have led to MAD
• In the first part of the course, we will seek to
  address some important puzzles of the crisis,
  both to provide answers and to illustrate the
  explanatory applicability of several general,
  analytical approaches to foreign policy
  decision-making

10
Reflections on the Crisis

• Given that doing so would likely bring the world
  to the brink of destruction, why did the USSR put
  missiles in Cuba in the first place?
• Given that a blockade did not remove the missiles
  and allowed those in place to be readied, how and
  why did the US settle upon the quarantine as
  its chosen response?
• Given that nuclear war would hurt the US as much
  as the USSR, why did the USSR choose to remove
  the missiles?

11
General Questions Concerning American Foreign
Policy

• Who are the key players in American foreign
  policy decision-making?
• How are American foreign policy decisions arrived
  at by these key players?
• Are theoretical frameworks useful to analysts
  seeking to answer these questions?