VOTING BEHAVIOR THEORIES

1
VOTING BEHAVIOR THEORIES

• In the United States, 1940s to today

2
Voting behavior theories

• Columbia school (1940s, 1950s)
• Voting, The Peoples Choice
• Sociologists and marketing researchers
• Community studies (NOT national surveys)
• Emphasis on GROUPS religion, workplace, social
  acquaintances
• Personal influence a crucial intervening factor
• Cross pressured voters choose late (if at all)

3
Voting behavior theories

• Michigan school (1960 onward)
• The American Voter
• Social psychologists, political scientists
• National surveys (National Election Studies begun
  in 1948)
• Emphasis on PARTY IDENTIFICATION as a
  psychological attachment
• Party ID begins the funnel of causality leading
  to vote choice

4
Why believe Michigan?

• Party ID explains vote choice far better than all
  other variables (including political ideology)
• Survey data establishes central importance of
  Party ID, develops connections among other
  explanatory variables

5
Concerns with Michigan model

• 1950s political stability
• 2 presidential elections between same candidates
  (Eisenhower, Stevenson)
• Bipartisan agreement on most foreign policy
  issues
• Major divisions are within political parties, not
  between political parties
• What isnt measured cant be evaluated (group
  attachments)

6
Challenges to Michigan model

• V.O. Key (1964) Voters are not fools
• Electorates output reflects its input hence a
  more substantive campaign would reflect
  issue-based voting more so than in 1952, 1956
  The Responsible Electorate
• Even if Party ID is central explanatory factor,
  voters without strong Party ID decide elections
  (switchers vs. standpatters)

7
Challenges to Michigan model

• Issue voting (late 1960s onward)
• The Changing American Voter
• Issues matter, effects of Party ID lessened when
  issue stances included in predictive models
• By 1980s, parties begin to sort better among
  political ideologies (hence issues predict party
  attachments better)
• More people now vote on basis of single issues
  (though still not a large number, less than 20)

8
Challenges to Michigan model

• Rochester model (rational choice) - 1980s onward
• Retrospective Voting in American National
  Elections (1981)
• voters reward incumbents who have benefited them,
  punish incumbents who have not
• Explains congressional election patterns well
• Campaign events aid in retrospective evaluations

9
Voting behavior research today

• Michigan runs the National Election Study
• Rational choice has strong proponents but weak
  evidence
• Greater emphasis on campaign effects or the
  Three Cs
• Campaign issues (what matters now)
• Perceptions of candidates (personality)
• Campaign events (debates, ads, scandal)
• Group attachments more prominent (esp. religion)