THE ART AND SCIENCE OF MAKING A COMMUNITY RESILIENT TO EARTHQUAKES

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THE ART AND SCIENCE OF MAKING A COMMUNITY
RESILIENT TO EARTHQUAKES
Walter Hays, Global Alliance for Disaster
Reduction, University of North Carolina, USA
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MAKING OUR FUTURE BETTER THAN OUR PAST
PERIOD OF INTEGRATION 1990-2012
WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY 2012
PERIOD OF IMPLEMENTATION NOW
PERSON-ALIZE
ACT
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COMMUNITIES ARE AT RISK FROM

• FLOODS
• SEVERE WINDSTORMS
• EARTHQUAKES
• TSUNAMIS
• DROUGHTS
• VOLCANIC ERUPTIONS
• LANDSLIDES
• WILDFIRES

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A COMMUNITYS BUILDINGS AND INFRASTRUCTURE MUST
BE RESILIENT TO GROUND SHAKING AND GROUND FAILURE
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THE RISK TO A COMMUNITYS BUILT ENVIRONMENT IS
DIRECTLY RELATED TO ITS VULNERABILITIES
RISK
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WHAT WE KNOW ABOUT A CITY AND ITS BUILT
ENVIRONMENT (B.E.)

• CITIES AND MEGACITIES EXIST BY GEOLOGIC,
  HYDROLOGIC, AND ATMOSPHERIC CONSENT AND THE
  B.E.s VULNER-ABILITIES

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CAUSES OF VULNER-ABILITIES
INADEQUATE BUILDING CODES
INADEQUATE LIFELINE STANDARDS
SITING IN LOCATIONS PRONE TO SURFACE FAULTING,
LAND-SLIDES, LIQUEFACTION
IRREGULARITIES IN ELEVATION AND PLAN
EARTHQUAKES
INADEQUATE CONSTRUCTION MATERIALS
DISASTER LABORATORIES
SITING ON SOFT SOILS
INADEQUATE ANCHORAGE OF NON-STRUCTURAL ELEMENTS
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CONSEQUENCES OF COMMUNITY VULNERABILITIES
RISK
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EVERY COMMUNITY CAN MAKE ITS FUTURE BETTER THAN
ITS PAST

• GOAL 1 LEARN FROM THE PAST
• GOAL 2 REDUCE COMMUNITY VULNERABILITIES THAT
  INCREASE RISK FOR PEOPLE, PROPERTY, AND
  INFRASTRUCTURE

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PAST DISASTERS PROVIDE A REALITY CHECK Source
Munich Re and many past earthquakes

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ALL VULNERABILITIES CAN BE FIXED
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ALL VULNERABILITIES ARE FIXABLE
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ALL VULNERABILITIES ARE FIXABLE
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ALL VULNERABILITIES ARE FIXABLE

• A UTILITY CORRIDOR IS VULNERABLE TO LOSS OF
  FUNCTION WHEN ROUTED THROUGH SOILS THAT ARE
  SUSCEPTIBLE TO LIQUEFACTION.

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IMPORTANT QUESTIONS

• WHAT LEVEL OF CASUALTIES WILL OCCUR IN A FUTURE
  EARTHQUAKE IF THE VULNERABILITIES IN THE B.E. ARE
  NOT FIXED?
• WHAT LEVEL OF ECONOMIC LOSSES WILL OCCUR IN A
  FUTURE EARTHQUAKE IF THE VULNER-ABILITIES IN THE
  B.E. ARE NOT FIXED?

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INADEQUATE SEISMIC DESIGN PROVISIONS
(I.E., BUILDING CODES AND LIFELINE
STANDARDS)

• MEAN
• 1) INADEQUATE RESISTANCE TO HORIZONTAL GROUND
  SHAKING
• 2) COLLAPSE OF BUILDINGS AND LOSS OF FUNCTION OF
  LIFELINES

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NOTABLE PAST DISASTERS

• SAN FRANCISCO
• 1906 EARTHQUAKE FIRE

• 3,000 CASUALTIES
• 524 M LOSS (ORIGINAL VALUES)
• 180 M INSURED LOSS

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NOTABLE PAST DISASTERS

• TOKYO
• 1923 EARTHQUAKE FIRE

• 142,807 CASUALTIES
• 2,800 M LOSS (ORIGINAL VALUES)
• 590 M INSURED LOSS

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NOTABLE PAST DISASTERS

• MANAGUA
• 1972 EARTHQUAKE

• 11,000 CASUALTIES
• 800 M LOSS (ORIGINAL VALUES)
• 100 M INSURED LOSS

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PAST NOTABLE DISASTERS

• TANGSHAN
• 1976 EARTHQUAKE

• 240,000 CASUALTIES
• 5,600 M LOSS (ORIGINAL VALUES)
• ---0 M INSURED LOSS

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PAST NOTABLE DISASTERS

• MEXICO CITY
• 1985 EARTHQUAKE

• 9,500 CASUALTIES
• 4,000 M LOSS (ORIGINAL VALUES)
• 275 M INSURED LOSS

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PAST NOTABLE DISASTERS

• LOMA PRIETA (SAN FRANCISCO)
• 1989 EARTHQUAKE

• 61 CASUALTIES
• 5,000 M LOSS (ORIGINAL VALUES)
• 1,000 M INSURED LOSS

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PAST NOTABLE DISASTERS

• NORTHRIDGE, CALIFORNIA
• 1994 EARTHQUAKE

• 61 CASUALTIES
• 44,000 M LOSS (ORIGINAL VALUES)
• 15,300 M INSURED LOSS

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PAST NOTABLE DISASTERS

• KOBE, JAPAN
• 1995 EARTHQUAKE

• 6,400 CASUALTIES
• 100,000 M LOSS (ORIGINAL VALUES)
• 3,000 M INSURED LOSS

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PAST NOTABLE DISASTERS

• IZMET, TURKEY
• 1999 EARTHQUAKE

• 17,200 CASUALTIES
• 12,000 M LOSS (ORIGINAL VALUES)
• 600 M INSURED LOSS

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PAST NOTABLE DISASTERS

• BAM, IRAN
• 2003 EARTHQUAKE

• 40,000 CASUALTIES
• ?000 M LOSS (ORIGINAL VALUES)
• --00 M INSURED LOSS

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2003 Bam, Iran Earthquake
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PAST NOTABLE DISASTERS

• BANDA ACHE, INDONESIA
• 2004 EARTHQUAKE TSUNAMI

• 240,000 CASUALTIES
• 4,000 M LOSS (ORIGINAL VALUES)
• ?--00 M INSURED LOSS

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2004 BANDA ACHE EARTHQUAKE AND TSUNAMI
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2004 BANDA ACHE EARTHQUAKE AND TSUNAMI
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PAST NOTABLE DISASTERS

• SICHUAN PROVINCE, CHINA
• 2008 EARTHQUAKE

• 80,000 CASUALTIES
• 13,300 M LOSS (ORIGINAL VALUES)
• --00 M INSURED LOSS

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SICHUAN, CHINA EARTHQUAKE INADEQUATE BUILDING
CODE
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TWENTY-ONE DAYS LATER

• 45,690,000 people were affected by the disaster.

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HAITI EARTHQUAKE INADEQUATE BUILDING CODE
JANUARY 12, 2010
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TSUNAMI JAPANMARCH 12, 2011