Theory of Plate Tectonics An explanation of science and prediction

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Theory of Plate TectonicsAn explanation of
science and prediction
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Real life situation

• On December 26th 2004 there was a great earth
  quake that happened in Sumatra Andaman. Actually
  scientists didnt predict the event would occur
  because, due to the theory, the area was believed
  to be immune to such giant earth quakes and
  hence, this made scientists rethink the theory of
  plate tectonics. (http//www.sciencedaily.com/rele
  ases/2007/01/070109142217.htm)

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Continued

• The theory says that giant earth quakes occur in
  fast, young subduction zones.
• However, this particular incident happened in
  a middle aged and slowly moving subduction zone.

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Knowledge issue

• To what extent does prediction test the validity
  of a scientific theory?

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Scientific theory

• A scientific theory is a well supported body of
  interconnected statements that explains
  observations and can be used to make testable
  predictions. (en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Scientific_the
  ory )

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Roles of Scientific Theory

• Prediction
• Explanatory powers

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What are the bases for prediction

• Analysis of patterns
• Patterns are recurring events

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Where do we observe patterns?

• Natural Sciences
• Human Sciences

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Theories to be considered in this presentation

• Plate Tectonics
• Evolution by Natural Selection
• Valance shell Electron Pair Repulsion Theory
• Phillips Curve

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NATURAL SCIENCES
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Theory of plate tectonics
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Plate Tectonic Theory

• Pattern
• Prediction from pattern
•  

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Strength of the theory

• Normally able to predict places where the giant
  earthquakes and volcanic eruptions likely to
  happen.
• Able to predict the magnitude of earthquake,
  volcano or tsunami.
• Provides a mechanism to explain continental drift
  theory

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Possible areas of weakness of theories in general

• Sometimes Impossible to experiment
• Danger overgeneralization (problem of induction)
• Obtaining precise prior knowledge (measurement
  difficulties)
• Influence observer effect (uncertainty principle)
• Complexity and interacting variable

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Implication of the event on the theory

• Scientists are rethinking their theory, based on
  data collected after the earthquake
• Re-examining some of the pre-December 2004
  assumptions scientists made about such rare
  events.
• Some of this assumptions were, giant earth quakes
  occur only in fast, young subduction zones

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EVOLUTION
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Evolution The future course of evolution

• Can the theory of evolution make predictions?

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Strength of the theory

• It has explanatory power
• Use of evidence for example fossil records,
  homologous anatomical structures and artificial
  selection

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Possible areas of weakness of theories in general

• Sometimes Impossible to experiment
• Danger overgeneralization (problem of induction)
• Obtaining precise prior knowledge (measurement
  difficulties)
• Influence observer effect (uncertainty principle)
• Complexity and interacting variable

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• Evolution is more sensitive to initial
  conditions, so specific predictions about what
  mutations will occur and what traits will survive
  are impractical. (Abel,145)

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Initial Conditions
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• But not all scientific theories are able to make
  testable predictions?
• No scientific theory can ever be used to make
  predictions unless the initial conditions are
  specified and all theories require elimination
  of irrelevant factor
• ( Reuben Abel)
• This is a difficulty for both the human
  scientists and Evolutionary Biologists.

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Periodicity
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Patterns in chemistry

• Periodicity - refers to the repeating pattern of
  physical and chemical properties that is seen at
  regular interval in the periodic table.

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Mendeleev Periodic Table
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Valance Shell Electron Pair Repulsion Theory
(VSEPR)
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Valance shell electron pair repulsion theory
(VSEPR)

• mainly involves predicting the layout of
  electron pairs surrounding one or more central
  atoms in a molecule, which are bonded to two or
  more other atoms. The geometry of these central
  atoms in turn determines the geometry of the
  larger whole. It is also a model in chemistry
  used to predict the shape of individual molecules
  based upon the extent of electron-pair
  electrostatic repulsion

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Strength of the theory

• It plays a great role in predicting the structure
  of a compound by looking at the geometrical
  structure of the central atom and using the
  valance shell electrons.
• To determine the melting and the boiling of a
  compound.
• For Example H2O is V-shaped molecule

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Possible areas of weakness of theories in general

• Sometimes Impossible to experiment
• Danger overgeneralization (problem of induction)
• Obtaining precise prior knowledge (measurement
  difficulties)
• Influence observer effect (uncertainty principle)
• Complexity and interacting variable

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Weakness of the theory

• It is Qualitative and hence, we can not talk
  about the quantitative properties of the
  compounds for instance we can not determine the
  exact degree of repulsion between each bonds.
• This theory can not apply to all compounds for
  instance Benzene is exceptional to the rule
  (Overgeneralization)

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Scientific method

• Hypothesis
• Experimentation
• Observation
• Data collection
• Conclusion

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Uncertainty principle Heisenberg

• This principle states that it is impossible to
  know the exact position and momentum of an
  electron. As momentum is related to time, what
  this implies is that it is impossible to know the
  exact location of an electron at an exact
  momentum in time. The more precisely the location
  is known, the less precisely the time known and
  vice versa. Heisenbergs principle applies to any
  particle with mass, but the more massive the less
  the uncertainty of the particle. (Neuss,35)

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Uncertainty principle Heisenberg

• Scientists are using as base where there is a
  high probability that electrons are located in
  order to make prediction
• This applies to the whole of the physical
  universe for example in describing the three
  dimensional shapes of atomic orbital where there
  is a high probability that electrons are located
  

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Why cant we measure

• The problem of observer effect The physicist
  measuring devices interact with what he is
  measuring on subatomic level.

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Prediction in Human sciences
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What enables Human Scientists to predict?

• The law of large numbers
• Reasoning enables us to establish a relationship
  between particular experience and more broadly
  general ones with in the world we perceive.
• Once we have explained the last event
  satisfactorily we can predict the up coming
• Through evidence, we can associate cause and
  effect, make correlations and predict.
• Understanding of pattern allows us to predict.

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Why Human scientists find it difficult to Predict
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• Problems of applying the scientific method in the
  Human sciences
• Impossible to carry out controlled experiment
• Too many variables
• Some observation biased
• Individual behavior is unpredictable
• The weakness of baseline assumptions limit the
  predictive ability of human sciences
• It doesnt matter if the assumptions are wrong
  as long as one can extract general rules from
  which one can make predictions
  (perbylund.com/.../why-economists-predictions-are-
  always-wrong/ )
• Sometimes the predictions are based on
  extrapolating well beyond what is reasonable.

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The Phillips curve theory?
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Example The Phillips curve
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The butterfly Effect

• The prediction of the behavior of any large
  system is virtually impossible unless one could
  account for all tiny factors
• A small change in some tiny variable may cause
  larger variation in a dynamic system

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The Cassandra paradox

• Example of interaction between a social
  investigator and what is been investigated
• Unlike in natural science there is unavoidable
  interaction between the predictor and the people
  for whom the prediction is made
• Human tend to try to falsify the predictions made
  about them
• A prediction to you about you may motivate you
  to defy the prediction (Abel,116)
• What about our measurements from thermometer?

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Possible areas of weakness of theories in general

• Sometimes Impossible to experiment
• Danger overgeneralization (problem of induction)
• Obtaining precise prior knowledge (measurement
  difficulties)
• Influence observer effect (uncertainty principle)
• Complexity and interacting variable

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Implication on theory of plate tectonics

• There are things scientists cant really measure
  but this variable may cause unpredicted effects.
  For instance exact measurement of the speed and
  age of plate is difficult.

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Conclusion

• In our presentation we have talked about the role
  of prediction in validating a scientific theory.
  As we have seen from the 2004 tsunami incident
  our theories fail sometimes to predict.
• Mismatch between theory of plate tectonics and
  2004 tsunami
• Uncertainty principle and observer effect
• Historical approach versus experimental approach
  
• But there are other qualities to validate
  scientific theory such as explanatory powers.

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Bibliography

• Sumatra Earthquake New Data Overturn Common
  View That Great Earthquakes Only Occur In Fast,
  Young Subduction Zones. sciencedialy. Jan. 10,
  2007.Oct. 1, 2009. lthttp//www.sciencedaily.com/re
  leases/2007/01/070109142217.htmgt
• Scientific Theory". Wikipedia- the Free
  Encyclopedia. 2009.Nov. 3, 2009.
  lten.wikipedia.org/wiki/Scientific_theory gt
• Bylund, Per. Why Economists Predictions are
  Always Wrong.2009. Nov. 3, 2009 .
• http//perbylund.com/blog/2009/05/why-econo
  mists-predictions-are- always-wrong/
• Neuss, Geoffrey. Chemistry course companion.
  Oxford, USA Oxford university press 2007. Nov.
  3, 2009.
• Abel, Reuben. Man Is The Measure. New York THE
  FREE PRESS 1976. 1 Oct 2009