Sustainable Development - Imbalances and Opportunities

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Sustainable Development - Imbalances and
Opportunities

• Knowledge Sharing Forum for the JJ/WBGSP Scholars
• Konrad von Ritter
• WBI Sustainable Development
• February 23, 2009

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• World is in Imbalance
• New WDR says, Geographic Imbalance might be
  helpful...
• Managing the costs of fast urbanization planning
  ahead to prevent slums, mitigating GHG

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Imbalance of wealth distribution
Per Capita Wealth (US1000)
Share of Wealth by Category ()
Source World Bank (2006) Where is the Wealth of
Nations
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Trends the rate of change in wealth greatly
differs between Regions
Source World Bank (2006) Where is the Wealth of
Nations
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Food Production keeping up with Growing
Population but undernourishment persists
Source Atlas of Global Development (2007)
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AG Productivity increasing in most parts,
except SSA
Increase in use of technology and access to
knowledge will be critical to stimulate gains in
agricultural productivity
Source Atlas of Global Development (forthcoming,
2007)
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Water - limited resources supporting the engine
of growth
Source Atlas of Global Development (forthcoming,
2007)
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but at a cost Water An Increasingly
Scarce Natural Capital
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WDR 2009 The World In 3D(Geographic) Imbalance
can be good for Prosperity
Higher Density Shorter Distance Fewer Divisions
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High Density High Attraction!
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Worlds Top 100 Economies

• Mexico City
• 40. Wash DC
• 43. Walmart

11. Tokyo 12. New York
91. Rio d.J. 92. Barcelona 93. Shanghai
GDP/Revenues in billions PPP, 2005
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More Density is happening everywhere AFRICA
- fastest urbanizing region!
1600
6
1400
5
Populations (millions)
1200
4
1000
3
800
Rate of change (per cent)
600
2
400
1
200
0
1970-75
0
2050-30
1960-65
1990-95
2000-5
2020-25
1980-85
2010-15
1950
2030
1990
1980
2000
2010
2020
1970
1960
1950-55
Total population
Total population
Rural population
Rural population
Urban population
Urban population
Annual Change in Total, 1950-2030
Annual Rate of Change in Total
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Growing Importance of Cities

• More than half the world is urban today
• By 2040, world urban populations will double, and
  land areas will triple
• Cities areas are likely the worlds most
  important stakeholders
• The are a big part of the problem, and an
  indispensable part of the solution

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Unbalanced growth can bring prosperity, but
with social and environmental costs

• Mobility from Poor to Prosperous Regions
• Cant Stop (Mumbai tried)
• Growing Slums
• Up to 80 of GHG emissions from or for cities
• Buildings, Power generation and transport,
  mainly associated with towns and cities, are
  responsible for the majority of CO2 emissions

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Pro-active Approaches to Urban Slums A WBI
Toolkit
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Urban Areas Greatest Opportunites for GHG
Reductions
Municipal Areas
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WBG scaling up Urban Climate work

• Within overall WBG Strategy CC Strategy
• Financing e.g. Mexico first CIF investment
• Urban mobility and energy efficency
• Tools e.g. GHG Index for Cities
• Knowledge and Learning e.g. Carbon Expo with
  urban theme

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MEXICO CITY GREEN HOUSE EMISSIONS IN 2007
Mexico City 37 million tons of carbon dioxide
equivalent emissions
Metropolitan zone of Mexico city 60 million of
tons of carbon dioxide equivalent 9.1 of the
national emissions México is the number 12 on
GHG emissions and contributes with 1.5 of global
emissions
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TRANSPORT EMISSION REDUCTION
10 actions to reduce the GHG emission
Investment needed for these actions 3,191 million
dollars
1.8 million tons of carbon dioxide equivalent
reduction per year
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Mexico City GHG Reduction Strategy
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World Bank-SupportedGlobal City Indicators
Program

• GHG Index will be linked to the GCIP
• Member cities can share their baseline results
  and best practices

Please visit www.cityindicators.org for more
information
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Carbon Expo 2009 in Barcelona
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Thoughts for Discussion

• Whats the right balance between making cities
  livable for future immigrants and rural areas
  attractive for reducing migration?
• Credits Dan Hoornweg (Cities), Victor Vergara
  (Slums), B.Valle (Mexico), and as noted on slides

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