NUCLEAR-ELECTRICITY IN CHILE: HOW FAR, HOW CLOSE

1
NUCLEAR-ELECTRICITY IN CHILE HOW FAR, HOW CLOSE
Marcelo Tokman R. Minister of Energy of Chile
International Atomic Energy Agency TM/WS on
Topical Issues on Infrastructure Development
Managing the Development of a National
Infrastructure for Nuclear Power VIENNA,
FEBRUARY 10TH, 2010
2
INDEX

• BACKGROUND
• IS NUCLEAR ENERGY CONVENIENT FOR CHILE?
• IS CHILE PREPARED TO IMPLEMENT A NPP?
• CONCLUSIONS

3
INDEX

• BACKGROUND
• World Energy Context
• The Climate Challenge
• Nuclear Rebirth
• IS NUCLEAR ENERGY CONVENIENT FOR CHILE?
• IS CHILE PREPARED TO IMPLEMENT A NPP?
• CONCLUSIONS

4
BACKGROUND World Energy Context
Primary energy demand forecast
Source IEA, WEO 2009.
It is estimated that primary energy consumption
by 2030 in the world will double the one in 1990.
This consumption growth will be boosted by
Non-OECD countries mainly.
5
BACKGROUND World Energy Context
Global electricity demand growth
Source IEA, WEO 2009.

• The installation of more than 3,000 extra GWs
  is required by 2030. This demand will be covered
  mainly by coal and natural gas.

6
BACKGROUND World Energy Context
2004-2030 Fossil fuel prices forecast
Source IEA, WEO 2009, Base Price October 2009,
Purvin Gertz Report September 2009.
Note 2004-2009 data are effective prices, while
2010-2030 data are forecasted prices.

• Increase and greater volatility in fossil fuel
  prices.

7
BACKGROUND World Energy Context
Emissions per type of technology
Source Central Research Institute of Electric
Power Industry (CRIEPI)

• A strong expansion in fossil fuels consumption
  involves higher greenhouse gases emissions.

8
BACKGROUND The Climate Challenge
Strategy of emission reduction of the IEA, WEO
(2009)

Source IEA, WEO 2009.
To limit the global temperature increase to 2ºC,
world emissions from energy sector must fall 35
by 2030.
9
BACKGROUND The Climate Challenge

• Nuclear energy, together with hydro (which
  usually has a limited potential), is the only
  large-scale generation source, supplying baseload
  demand, and with a near-zero carbon footprint.
  WEO 2009 IEA.

Nuclear energy is the only green solution. We
have no time to experiment with visionary energy
sources. James Lovelock.

• Nuclear energy is not the solution to climate
  change however, there is no solution without
  nuclear energy.

10
BACKGROUND Nuclear Energy Rebirth
Reactors under construction in the world

Source IAEA, 2009.

• Due to reasons of cost, energy security and
  emissions, a nuclear energy rebirth can be
  observed around the world.

11
BACKGROUND Nuclear Energy Rebirth

Countries with nuclear power
Source IAEA, 2009.
Countries considering nuclear option
Countries which have expressed interest in
nuclear option
Although nuclear-electricity is part of the
global solution, each country needs to assess if
it is convenient for the local reality.
12
INDEX

• BACKGROUND
• IS NUCLEAR ENERGY CONVENIENT FOR CHILE?
• IS CHILE PREPARED TO IMPLEMENT A NPP?
• CONCLUSIONS

13
INDEX

• BACKGROUND
• IS NUCLEAR ENERGY CONVENIENT FOR CHILE?
• Technical-Economic Convenience
• Impact on emissions
• Local environmental impacts
• Waste
• Safety
• IS CHILE PREPARED TO IMPLEMENT A NPP?
• CONCLUSIONS

14
IS NUCLEAR ENERGY CONVENIENT FOR CHILE?
Technical-Economic Convenience
The electrical system expansion was modeled
until 2035, minimizing the present value of the
expected total costs. For this purpose, models
and assumptions from the IAEA, IEA and CNE were
used.

• Some assumptions
• Progressive increase in fuel prices (fossil fuels
  and uranium).
• Constant costs of investment in conventional
  technologies.
• Decrease in costs of investment of the NCRE.
• Forecast of the demand considers efficient energy
  use.
• In the case of nuclear energy, costs of
  dismantling and waste management are included,
  and the interconnection of SIC and SING systems
  is considered.

15
IS NUCLEAR ENERGY CONVENIENT FOR CHILE?
Technical-Economic Convenience
Forecasted installed capacity (SIC and SING)

Source CNE Modeling.

• For most likely scenarios, from the
  technical-economic perspective,
  nuclear-electricity would be convenient for Chile
  from 2024 on.

16
IS NUCLEAR ENERGY CONVENIENT FOR CHILE?
Technical-Economic Convenience
Impact of the introduction of nuclear energy in
SIC SING

Source CNE Modeling.

• Nuclear energy replaces coal plants, which
  results in a positive impact in terms of costs,
  and greenhouse gases emissions as well.

17
IS NUCLEAR ENERGY CONVENIENT FOR CHILE? Impact
on emissions
CO2 Emissions Comparison (SIC SING)
Source CNE Modeling.

• In 2035, greenhouse gases emissions by
  electricity sector are 43 lower compared to a
  scenario without nuclear energy.

18
IS NUCLEAR ENERGY CONVENIENT FOR CHILE? Local
environmental impacts
Local impacts of different energy sources
Energy Source Greenhouse Gases Emission Local Pollutants Emission Ecosystems Alteration Land Use and Landscape Alteration
Coal High High Low Low
Oil High High Low Low
Natural Gas Medium Medium Low Low
Geothermal Low Low Low Low
Nuclear Low Low Low Low
Wind Low Low Low High
Hydro Low Low High High
Solar Photovoltaic Low Low Low Medium
Solar Thermal Low Low Low High
Source CNE Estimates.
Although a local impact assessment is required
for each case, in general terms nuclear energy
has a low impact.
19
IS NUCLEAR ENERGY CONVENIENT FOR CHILE? Waste
Waste generated per type of technology
Source Electrical Nuclear Corporation, 2009.
Note Waste include those produced during fuel
fabrication and plant operation.
Nuclear energy generates reduced volumes of
waste, and the international experience shows
that used fuel can be managed in a safe way.
20
IS NUCLEAR ENERGY CONVENIENT FOR CHILE? Safety
Safety elements in a nuclear plant
Source Electrical Nuclear Corporation, 2009.

• The current technological development minimizes
  the probability of severe accidents, even in
  countries with high seismic activity like Chile.

21
IS NUCLEAR ENERGY CONVENIENT FOR CHILE? Safety
Accident rate per energy source (1969 2000)
Energy Source Number of severe accidents Number of direct casualties per GW year Number of direct casualties per GW year Number of direct casualties per GW year
Energy Source Number of severe accidents World OCDE Non-OCDE
Coal 1,221 0.876 0.185 1.576
Coal (without considering China) 177 0.69   0.589
Oil 397 0.436 0.392 0.502
Natural Gas 125 0.093 0.091 0.096
Hydro 11 4.265 0.003 10.285
Hydro (without considering Banqiao/Shimantan) 10 0.561   1.349
Nuclear 1 0.006 0 0.048
Source Burgherr et al., 2004.
The historical record of severe accidents, with
casualties, shows the safety of this type of
generation.
22
IS NUCLEAR ENERGY CONVENIENT FOR CHILE?
Preliminary Results

• For most likely scenarios, from the
  technical-economic perspective,
  nuclear-electricity would be convenient for Chile
  from 2024 onwards. It would also allow the
  reduction of greenhouse gases emissions and other
  local impacts.
• International experience shows that, in
  compliance with the highest safety standards, it
  does not represent a hazard for the population or
  the environment.

23
INDEX

• BACKGROUND
• IS NUCLEAR ENERGY CONVENIENT FOR CHILE?
• IS CHILE PREPARED TO IMPLEMENT A NPP?
• CONCLUSIONS

24
INDEX

• BACKGROUND
• IS NUCLEAR ENERGY CONVENIENT FOR CHILE?
• IS CHILE PREPARED TO IMPLEMENT A NPP?
• Technical and institutional gaps
• Lack of broad national agreement
• CONCLUSIONS

25
IS CHILE PREPARED TO IMPLEMENT A NPP? Technical
and institutional gaps
Today, the country is NOT prepared to implement
a Nuclear Power Program with the safety standards
required.

• IAEAs methodology application
• It identifies legal, regulatory, and HR-related
  gaps, which needs to be closed in order to assure
  the safe operation of a nuclear plant.
• It also shows that the country would be able to
  close the gaps in a timely manner, given its
  institutional strength and gained experience with
  research reactors.

26
IS CHILE PREPARED TO IMPLEMENT A NPP? Technical
and institutional gaps
Important milestones in a NPP development
Note Indicated dates are reference estimates.

• Currently, the country is not ready however,
  there is time to close the gaps.

27
IS CHILE PREPARED TO IMPLEMENT A NPP? Lack of a
broad national agreement
Currently, public opinion is NOT favorable to
the nuclear energy development in Chile.
The IAEA and international experience show that
it is critical to have a broad national agreement
(investors certainty, future generations
responsibilities, etc.)
Note Caorso Plant (Italy) and Zwentendorf
(Austria).
28
IS CHILE PREPARED TO IMPLEMENT A NPP? Lack of a
broad national agreement

• Public opinion studies show
• Fear of technology and distrust of the national
  capacity to implement a NPP in a safe way.
• A lack of knowledge and information about nuclear
  matters and, in general, about energy.
• Disposition to learn about and discuss the
  nuclear option for Chile.

29
INDEX

• BACKGROUND
• IS NUCLEAR ENERGY CONVENIENT FOR CHILE?
• IS CHILE PREPARED TO IMPLEMENT A NPP?
• CONCLUSIONS

30
CONCLUSIONS
Most likely scenarios show that, due to costs
reasons, as well as for climate change matters,
Chile will require nuclear energy in the next
decade. Currently, the country is not ready to
implement a NPP in a safe way however, there is
time to close the gaps. An essential condition
to develop a NPP is to have a broad citizen
support, which we currently lack.
31
CONCLUSIONS

• According to most likely scenarios, it would not
  be necessary to decide to call for bids until
  2016, nor start the construction of a nuclear
  plant until 2018. Until then, there is enough
  time to
• Reassess the convenience for the country of
  moving forward towards a NPP development,
  depending on market conditions, technological
  advances and potential environmental
  restrictions.
• Check the advance of the closing of gaps and
  assess if the country is really prepared to
  implement a NPP in a safe way.

The nuclear option is not a one-way road.
32
CONCLUSIONS

• Although there is still time to call for bids
  and start construction, we need to start closing
  the gaps and to generate an informed public
  discussion soon. Not doing so represents risks
  for the country
• If the need of adding nuclear power to the mix is
  proved, it would not be able to enter timely.
• Or else, its fast introduction could be forced,
  without complying with the highest safety
  standards.

Keeping the nuclear option open by closing the
gaps is a responsible decision of public policy
it is equivalent to buying an energy insurance.
33
CONCLUSIONS
In order to have enough time to close the gaps
it is essential to have a broad citizen support
within the next years. This required citizen
support is to keep the option open, it is not to
make a definitive decision. In other words, in
this stage it is necessary to decide if we buy
the insurance, and not if we buy a nuclear
plant. The above mentioned requires providing
all the necessary information to allow a serious
public discussion.
34
CONCLUSIONS
Important milestones in a NPP development
Note Indicated dates are reference estimates.
35
NUCLEAR-ELECTRICITY IN CHILE HOW FAR, HOW CLOSE
Marcelo Tokman R. Minister of Energy of Chile
International Atomic Energy Agency TM/WS on
Topical Issues on Infrastructure Development
Managing the Development of a National
Infrastructure for Nuclear Power VIENNA,
FEBRUARY 10TH, 2010