New Nuclear Opportunities at Point Lepreau

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New Nuclear Opportunities at Point Lepreau

• by
• Dr. Terry Thompson, Senior Advisor
• MZConsulting Inc
• NBSO 2008 Energy Conference
• Delta Brunswick Hotel, Saint John, NB
• 2008 May 15-16

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Background

• August 2007- government announced a Feasibility
  Study for new nuclear plant at Point Lepreau
• To be conducted and paid for by Team CANDU New
  Brunswick (TCNB)
• AECL
• SNC-Lavalin Nuclear
• Hitachi Canada
• GE-Hitachi Nuclear Energy Canada
• Babcock Wilcox Canada

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Team CANDU New Brunswick Feasibility Study

• Evaluate potential for ACR-1000
• Objectives
• Private sector investment and risk
• Energy cluster for NB
• Jan 2008 - study submitted to government
• 4 Feb 2008 - NBDOE press conference
• Announced TCNB report received, under review

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MZConsulting Viability Study

• August 2007- NBDOE engaged MZConsulting to
  perform an independent Viability Study
• Higher level study than TCNB FS
• Objectives
• Findings and Considerations for government
• Workable business structure
• Path forward for success
• December 2007- report submitted to NBDOE
• Feb 2008 - Executive Summary released to public

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MZConsulting Viability Study
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Basis of MZC Study

• Assessed
• Market
• Project Structures
• Business Case
• Local Benefits
• Potential Role for New Brunswick

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Key Inputs

• Key References
• ISO New England Scenario Analysis
• RGGI Web Site
• NBSO 10-Year Outlook
• Northeast Gas Association Market Overview
• CRS Report for Congress
• IEA Outlook
• OPA IPSP
• CERI Report
• UK Nuclear Consultation
• WNA Web Site
• Moodys Report on Nuclear Power
• Lacy Report on Attitudes of Financial Sector
• Press Releases and Media reports
• Technical papers and other web sites

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Viability Study Outputs

• Findings that reflect the views and information
  available in the market
• Considerations for New Brunswick when reviewing
  the Team CANDU NB Feasibility Study
• Potential Role for New Brunswick

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Market Findings

• There is a potential market for the output of an
  ACR-1000 plant
• LNG and natural gas generation is the major
  competition
• The Maritime market has the potential to take
  half the output of a new nuclear unit
• The New England market has potential
• Land transmission should be sufficient

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Project Structure Findings

• A nuclear project has never been implemented on a
  merchant plant basis
• Success with this model will require long term
  commitments
• The Project cannot take significant First of a
  Kind ACR-1000 risk

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Business Case Findings

• The economics of the project show that under a
  suitable set of conditions the project can be
  viable
• The viability of the project is dependent upon
  the structure
• Environmental issues are becoming more prominent
  in both the domestic and export markets

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Economic Benefits Findings

• This project can provide an impetus to the
  provinces goal of creating an energy cluster.
• The province should receive demonstrable benefits
  from the project in return for hosting the First
  of a Kind ACR-1000.
• Sustainability of the jobs related directly to
  the implementation of the ACR-1000 will be
  directly related to the success of the ACR-1000
  in the global market.
• Emphasis should be more on knowledge-based
  infrastructure than on fabrication.

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Potential Role for New Brunswick

• NB brings key attributes to the table
• World class nuclear operator
• Licensed nuclear site
• Community support
• Willingness to host the FOAK ACR-1000
• Should be fairly compensated
• Price for Site
• Local benefits
• Option for eventual financial involvement should
  the long-term investment opportunity be sound

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Summary

• There is a potential market for an ACR-1000 plant
• both domestic and for export
• A merchant plant model has many issues
• Project can be economically viable
• NB brings a lot to the table
• Significant knowledge localization is important

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Path Forward

• Consider if critical success factors can be met
• Demonstrated market
• FOAK risks managed
• Robust business case
• Strong project proponent to take completion risk
• Sustainable, knowledge-based nuclear
  infrastructure for NB
• If governments conditions met
• Site Preparation License Application
• Environmental Assessment
• Proposed In Service 2017

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• Thank You