1
Western Snowpack and Water Supply Perspectives

• Phil Pasteris
• Supervisory Meteorologist
• Natural Resources Conservation Service
• United States Department of Agriculture
• National Water and Climate Center
• http//www.wcc.nrcs.usda.gov
• phil.pasteris_at_usda.gov

2
Snow Survey / Water Supply Forecast Program

• J. E. Church
• 1909 Mt. Rose, Nevada
• 1935, Principles of Snow Surveying as Applied to
  Forecasting Stream Flow, Journal of
  Agricultural Research
• NRCS Activities
• 1935 - SCS officially began snow survey and water
  supply forecasting in the western U.S. and Alaska
• PL 74-46 Soil Conservation Act

3
Snow Survey Program Activities

• Lead the Cooperative Snow Survey Program in 12
  western states
• Operate the SNOTEL network 704 sites
• Coordinate the cooperative manual snow survey
  program 922 manual sites
• Train snow surveyors in proper snow survey
  techniques and survival in remote areas

4
SNOTEL Network

• 1974 - Congress authorized and funded the SNOTEL
  system to automate remote sensing of the snowpack
  information
• Reports daily snow water equivalent,
  precipitation, snow depth, temperature and other
  parameters as needed.

5
SNOTEL Site Locations
6
Mt. Rose, NV SNOTEL Site
7
Meteor Burst Technology
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Water Supply Forecasting

• 717 total WSF points, 499 are produced NRCS
• Joint activity with National Weather Service
• 11,000 WSF issued in FY-2004
• 20 NRCS WSF points in Washington
• Over 58,000 unique user accesses to WSF in
  April 2004

9
SS-WSF Personnel

• State Data Collection Offices
• AK, CO, ID, MT, OR, UT
• State Water Supply Specialists
• AZ, CA, NV, NM, WA, WY
• NWCC Staff at Portland, OR
• Program Liaison in Washington, DC

10
PNW Snow Survey / WSF Team

• Oregon Data Collection Office
• Jon Lea, Snow Survey Supervisor, 503-414-3267
• Sheila Strachan, Hydrologist, 503-414-3272
• Rashawn Tama-Sweet, Hydrologist, 503-414-3268
• Bill Overman, Hydrologic Technician, 503-414-3269
  
• Melissa Webb, Hydrologic Technician, 503-414-3270
  
• Scott Pattee, Water Supply Specialist,
  360-428-7684
• 2021 E. College Way, Suite 214
• Mt. Vernon, WA 98273
• scott.pattee_at_wa.usda.gov
• Water Supply Hydrologists - NWCC
• Washington Cascades, Oregon, California, Jolyne
  Lea, 503-414-3040
• Washington, Columbia Basin, Tom Perkins,
  503-414-3059
• Montana, Colorado, Jennifer Erxleben,
  503-414-3033
• Southwest, Arizona, New Mexico, Colorado, Tom
  Pagano, 503-414-3010
• Modeling Hydrologist, David Garen, 503-414-3021

11
Water Year 2005

• Washington Governor declares statewide drought
  emergency. 12 mil in funding sought.
• Oregon Governor declares drought emergency in
  Klamath Basin.
• What IS going on this year?
• Extremes in the north (dry) and in the south
  (wet)
• The best of times, the worst of times?
• Impacts on the ski industry.
• How does it compare to 2001 and 1977 in the PNW?
• Whats the spring and summer water supply
  forecast?
• What about next water year?
• Is this a flash drought?

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March 1, 2005 / 2001 Snowpacks
13
Statistical Snowpack Ranking

• 157 of 471 SNOTEL sites westwide with 20 years
  of record rank in the lowest 5 (PNW)
• 17 of 471 SNOTEL sites rank in the highest 5
  (Southwest, Great Basin)
• 25 Washington SNOTEL sites set record low
  snowpacks for March 15
• 30 Washington SNOTEL sites in the lowest 5
  ranking

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Washington SNOTEL Sites
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SNOTEL Station ComparisonsElbow Lake 3,200
3/19/2005 3/19/2001 SWE 1 / PRCP
78 SWE 20 / PRCP 55
16
SNOTEL Station ComparisonsRainy Pass 4,780
3/19/2005 3/19/2001 SWE 12 / PRCP
28 SWE 20 / PRCP 20
17
SNOTEL Station ComparisonsStevens Pass 4,070
3/19/2005 3/19/2001 SWE 8 / PRCP
48 SWE 20 / PRCP 25
18
SNOTEL Station ComparisonsWhite Pass 4,500
3/19/2005 3/19/2001 SWE 1 / PRCP
15 SWE 11 / PRCP 13
19
SNOTEL Station ComparisonsCorral Pass 6,000
3/19/2005 3/19/2001 SWE 9 / PRCP
20 SWE 17 / PRCP 20
20
SNOTEL Station ComparisonsParadise 5,120
3/19/2005 3/19/2001 SWE 22 / PRCP
48 SWE 35 / PRCP 45
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Snowpack ProjectionCorral Pass 6,000
22
Precipitation ProjectionCorral Pass 6,000
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March 1, 1977 Water Supply Forecast
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March 1, 2005 / 2001 Water Supply
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NRCS / NWS WSF Points
NRCS Blue NWS Red Joint Yellow
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Cle Elum Lake Inflow WSF
27
Salmon Crk. Conconully
28
Skagit Basin WSF
29
White / Green River WSF
30
Lewis / Cowlitz WSF
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March 1, 2005 / 2001 Reservoir Storage
129 of Average Capacity
43 of Average Capacity
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March 1, 2005 / 2001 Reservoir Storage
2001 Reservoirs BUMPING LAKE CLE
ELUM KACHESS KEECHELUS RIMROCK CONCONULLY
RESERVOIR SALMON LAKE 2005 Additional
Reservoirs Ross Chelan Diablo
33
Cle Elum Storage Above Average
34
Lurking in Southwest WA...
35
Closing Thoughts

• You can observe a lot just by watchin'. The
  future aint what is used to be.
• Yogi Berra

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Closing Thoughts

• We need to learn to manage climate impacts.
• Maintain a robust climate observation network at
  all elevations.
• Integrate water supply forecasts with risk-based
  water management decision models.
• Enhance existing technology to deliver risk-based
  products directly to users in near real-time.
• Snowpack analysis, volume forecasts, special
  indexes (SWSI, Drought Monitor, etc.)

37
Thank You