Title: Criminal justice evaluation in the UK
1Criminal justice evaluation in the UK
- Chris Fox
- Dan Ellingworth
2Evidence-based policy
3Modern policy making
- Forward looking Defining policy outcomes and
taking a long term view - Outward looking Take account of national,
European and international situation learning
from experience of other countries recognising
regional variations. - Innovative, flexible Questioning established
ways of dealing with things, encouraging new and
creative ideas, identifying and managing risk. - Joining up Joining up the work of different
government departments ensuring that
implementation is part of the policy process. - Inclusive Consulting those responsible for
implementation and those affected by the policy
carrying out an impact assessment - Evidence based Basing policy decisions and
advice upon the best available evidence ensuring
evidence is available in an accessible and
meaningful form. - Evaluated Systematic evaluation of the
effectiveness of policy. - Reviews Policy constantly reviewed to ensure it
is dealing with problems it was designed to
solve. - Lessons learned Learning from experience of what
works and what does not - Cabinet Office (1999) Professional policy making
for the twenty-first century London Cabinet
Office
4What is evidence-based policy?
- Evidence-based policy (EBP). An approach that
- helps people make well informed decisions about
policies, programmes and projects by putting the
best available evidence from research at the
heart of policy development and implementation
(Davies 1999 quoted in Davies 2004) - Contrasted with opinion-based policy which
- relies heavily on either the selective use of
evidence (e.g. on single studies irrespective of
quality) or on the untested views of individuals
or groups, often inspired by ideological
standpoints, prejudices, or speculative
conjecture. (Davies 2004)
5Opinion-based policy
Taken from Chalmers, I. (2003) Campbell and
Cochrane the need for generosity of spirit and
mutual support Jerry Lee Lecture 3rd Annual
Campbell Colloquiem
6Opinion based policy
Taken from Chalmers, I. (2003) Campbell and
Cochrane the need for generosity of spirit and
mutual support Jerry Lee Lecture 3rd Annual
Campbell Colloquiem
7What factors influence policy?
Taken from Davies, P. (2004) Is evidence-based
government possible Jerry Lee Lecture 2004
8How to do an evaluation
9An evaluation framework
- Should it work? (Theory of change)
- What is the underlying theory of change which
explains why the intervention will make an
impact? - Can it work? (Implementation evaluation)
- Has the project been properly implemented? What
were the challenges to implementation and how
were they overcome? - Does it work? (Impact evaluation)
- What is the impact of the intervention?
- Is it worth it? (Economic evaluation)
- What are the resource implications of
implementing the intervention and what benefits
will it deliver?
Adapted from Haynes, B., 1999. BMJ 319652-653 (
11 September )
10Overview of possible methods
Review of project literature Review of international research literature Interviews with key stakeholders Staff interviews Observation of key processes Capture / analysis of monitoring data Capture / analysis of case files or other administrative data Interviews with service users Surveys of those affected Economic analysis
Should it work?
Can it work?
Does it work?
Is it worth it?
11Should it work? Theories of change
- Sometimes programmes and projects
- dont have clear aims or change their aims over
time - are shoe horned into a set of funding criteria
to access that funding - dont have clearly defined processes and
structures - are implemented in a multi-agency context where
different agencies will have different ideas
about what the project is trying to achieve
12Theories of change
- What is the conceptual link from an
intervention's inputs to the production of its
outputs and, subsequently, to its impacts on
society in terms of results and outcomes? - (United Kingdom Evaluation Society Glossary of
evaluation terms http//www.evaluation.org.uk/Pub_
library/Glossary.htm)
13Scared straight
- Started as US programme in 1970s
- Target group At risk or delinquent young people
- Prison visits including tour and confrontational
meeting with serving prisoners - Graphic depiction of life in prison
- TV documentary in US extols its virtues
- Also used in US
14Two possible theories of change
Visit to a Prison by juveniles First Hand Experience of Prison Life Exposure to Prison Life and Prisoners as Negative Role Models Frightens or Scares Juveniles Away from Crime Reduces Crime and Offending
or . . .
Visit to a Prison by juveniles First Hand Experience of Prison Life Exposure to Prison Life and Prisoners as Positive Role Models Stimulates or Attracts Juveniles Towards Crime Increases Crime and Offending
15Can it work? Process evaluation
- Identify whether the intervention has been
implemented as intended - Explore how a service or policy is delivered and
experienced in practice - Identify the mechanisms by which it can produce
the desired effects, potential barriers and
facilitators - Identify circumstances under which successful
operation might be replicated
16Scurvy
- James Lind (1716 1794) Ships Surgeon
- Lind selected 12 men, all suffering from scurvy
- Divided them into six pairs, giving each group
different additions to their basic diet. - Cider
- Seawater
- A mixture of garlic, mustard and horseradish
- Spoonfuls of vinegar
- Oranges
- Lemons.
- Those fed citrus fruits experienced a remarkable
recovery - In 1753, he published 'A Treatise of the Scurvy
- http//www.bbc.co.uk/history/historic_figures/lind
_james.shtml
17Does it work? Impact evaluation
Sherman et al. (1998) Preventing Crime. What
works, what doesnt, whats promising. National
Institute of Justice.
18Measuring impact
- Choice of impact measures is often limited by
availability of data or resources to collect
primary data. - In the UK, re-offending data can be accessed via
the Police National Computer (PNC) or the
Offender Index - For less tangible outcomes such as family
reconciliation or increased self-confidence the
only option is often expensive face-to-face
interviews/surveys.
19Finding a comparator
- A comparator group or area may not be readily
available. - While a programme or pilot area may be willing to
cooperate with an evaluation an organisation that
is not part of the evaluation but is being asked
to provide data for a comparator area may be hard
to persuade to cooperate. - A regional or national roll-out may limit the
number of potential comparator areas
20Throughputs
- Programmes and projects often struggle to
generate sufficient throughputs to allow for
robust statistical analysis. - Set-up times are often under-estimated
- The need for inter-agency cooperation is often
under-estimated
21Timescales
- Often evaluation timescales preclude appropriate
follow-up periods to identify the long-term
impact of interventions. - The Home Office recommends that reconviction
studies use a 2 year follow-up period. - By the time a cohort to study has been generated
this will often require an evaluation period of 3
4 years.
22Systematic Reviews
- Systematic reviews are overviews of the existing
research literature on a topic - A comprehensive search of print, electronic, and
unpublished sources is made. - Sources identified are screened to see if they
are relevant. - The quality of the sources (the strength of the
evidence) is then assessed. - Sometimes the findings from individual studies
are pooled in a process called meta-analysis
23Scared straight systematic review
- The systematic review shows that
- The program increases the percentage of the
treatment group committing new offences anywere
from 1 to 30. (365) (emphasis added) -
- Petrosino, A., Turpin-Petrosino, C., and
Finckenauer, J. (2000) Well-Meaning Programs Can
Have Harmful Effects! Lessons from Experiments of
Programs Such as Scared Straight Crime
Delinquency 46 354
24Interested?
- If so, Chris and Dan run a Third Year Module
called What works in social and criminal policy
that looks in more detail at how policy is made
and the role of evaluation in supporting the
policy-making process.