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Foresight A Tool for Environmental Assessment

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Title: Foresight A Tool for Environmental Assessment


1
Foresight A Tool for Environmental Assessment
Management
  • Lisa Pace
  • Malta Council for Science Technology
  • Lisa.pace_at_mcst.org.mt

2
Outline
  • Dimensions of environment.
  • Uncertainty in complex Environmental Systems
  • Rationale for carrying out foresight-type
    exercises in environment-related issues.
  • Techniques/tools used in environmental foresight.
  • Participatory processes and dialogue
  • Consensus conferences
  • Scenario analysis. Decision-support tools.
  • Look-out panels Biomarkers

3
The Environment A Complex System
E C O N O M I C D I M E N S I O N
4
Addressing Complex Environmental Problems as
Systems
  • Priority areas of action in the ECs Sixth
    Environment Action Programme Environment 2010
    Our future, our choice
  •   
  • Climate Change (Green House Gas GHG- Emissions)
  • Nature and protection of biodiversity
  • Environment and Health
  • Sustainable use of natural resources
  • Chemicals and Air Pollution
  • Waste Prevention and Recycling
  •  

5
Transport
6
Environmental represent Complex Systems with high
degree of Uncertainty
  • Incomplete information or knowledge exists on how
    these systems work.
  • Little is known on how they impact the
    environment and society.
  • The impact is difficult to quantify.
  • Models may propose different outcomes.

7
These systems raise uncertainties of many sorts.
  • What is the impact of GMOs on natural
    biodiversity and human health? What is the cost
    of a No GMO Policy?
  • How will climate change impact biodiversity?
  • What is the impact of fisheries on marine
    ecosystems?

8
In this climate of uncertainty
  • Decisions must be made TODAY, before conclusive
    evidence is available.
  • The stakes revolving around these issues are
    normally high, with strong economic and social
    interests which often conflict with environmental
    aspects.
  • What if these decisions are wrong? What impact
    will they have on society at large?
  • How can uncertainties be taken into account in
    environmental policy-making?

9
Environmental Assessment measuring, managing,
reducing uncertainty
  • Uncertainties cannot be eliminated but simply
    managed effectively and in a transparent manner.
  • Methodologies to assess the risk and uncertainty
    associated with a policy issue. Environmental
    Assessment. The degree or level of uncertainty
    must be presented to policy-maker.
  • Methodology to assess or evaluate knowledge
    generated in policy process. How robust and
    reliable is this knowledge? And therefore how
    effectively does it contribute to policy cycle?

10
Creating socially-robust Knowledge to manage
(reduce) uncertainty
  • Public participation stakeholder engagement -
    in policy cycle. Increased legitimacy and
    transparency (this is more about the process
    other than the product!)
  • Quality control such as extended peer review.
  • Interdisciplinarity
  • Accountability and Transparency of policy-making
    process.
  • Holistic approach to environmental management
    Ecosystems Management Approach

11
The policy cycle
  • Foresight is seen to feed into the policy cycle
    at three levels
  • It provides tools for stakeholder engagement.
    Involvement in the policy process
  • It provides for visions of future policy options
    through scenario analysis.
  • It can be used as an early warning signal of
    environmental problems

12
Rationale for carrying out Environmental
Foresight (1)
  • Prospective analysis can be used to
    identify emerging problems and solutions early.
    Provide an Early-Warning System to
    environmental issues/problems.
  • This is more effective than the
    conventional approach of waiting to act until
    adverse effects on the environment and human
    health are high and in some cases irreversible.
    (Alternative Futures, June 2003).
  • Foresight can help questions such as
    what are the envisaged future environmental
    problems? What steps should be taken to solve
    them (e.g. air pollution and its management) and
    even perhaps prevent such problems from arising
    in the first place?
  • Foresight is useful in environmental assessment,
    a tool which provides basic information on the
    current state of the environment but also
    addresses the future state of the environment
    (EEA, 2000).

13

Rationale for carrying out Environmental
Foresight (1)
  • Foresight is a useful tool for synthesising
    and communicating complex and extensive
    scientific information to decision makers and the
    public, thus bridging the gap between scientists
    and the community.
  • A participatory approach in a foresight exercise
    promotes Dialogue i.e. interaction and mutual
    exchange of ideas or results between stakeholders
    (including scientists) with the aim of promoting
    co-operation it is a process of multi-lateral
    communication across disciplines and institutions

14
A toolbox of foresight methods can be applied to
environmental management
  • 1.      Scenario Analysis with both qualitative
    and quantitative elements (SAS, story-line and
    simulation). Back-casting techniques
  • 2.      Consensus conferences
  • 3.      Expert Panels
  • 4.      Delphi surveys
  • 5.      Look-out Panels
  • 6. modelling
  • Not all these methods are future-oriented but
    complement techniques typically used in foresight
    exercises. Scenario analysis is the major
    foresight tool used in environmental management
    strategies.

15
Participatory approach in Environmental
Policy-making Building a Science Society
Dialogue
  • A participatory approach in a foresight exercise
    promotes Dialogue i.e. interaction and mutual
    exchange of ideas or results between stakeholders
    (including scientists) with the aim of promoting
    co-operation it is a process of multi-lateral
    communication across disciplines and institutions

16
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17
Consensus Conferences
  • Democratic tool used to promote dialogue between
    experts and non-experts.
  • Involves the non-expert or lay public in
    policy-making process where the non-expert could
    include decision-makers in company
    (top-management), directors in government
    departments, ministers, lay public, board of
    directors etc.
  • Described as a Citizens Jury. A citizens or
    lay panel a list of key questions to address to
    an expert panel during the three-day conference.
  • Used to discuss hot, emerging issues in ST.

18
Consensus Conferences
  • Examples
  • Widely used in Denmark in relation to public
    perception of GM Foods and gene therapy.
  • UK National Consensus Conference on Plant
    Biotechnology, 1996
  • UK National Consensus Conference on Waste, 1996
  • Fast Food and technoburgers, Norwegian Consensus
    Conference, 1996
  • Safety and Ethics of GMOS, Korea 1998
  • Korean Second Consensus Conference on Cloning,
    1999
  • Australian Biotech Consensus Conference, 1999 (GM
    Foods and Feed Issues)

19
Scenario Building
20
Example 1 COOL Climate OptiOns for the
Long-term, The NetherlandsCombined
Qualitative-Quantitative and Anticipatory
(normative) scenarios
  • Two-year foresight exercise with the goal of
  • Developing recommendations for drastic (80)
    Green House Gas (GHG) emission reductions by 2050
    compared to 1990 levels.
  • Time-horizon 2050
  • Baseline year 1990 
  • Discussed possibility of emission reductions in 4
    sectors (1) Industry Energy (2) Housing
    Construction (3) Transport Traffic and (4)
    Agriculture Nutrition.
  • Back-casting Technique retrospective in that
    starts from a pre-determined desirable final
    state and explores conditions and strategies to
    achieve this state. It can be divided into a
    number of steps.

21
Back-casting Technique to build Scenarios for
Energy Sector
22
Governance of Water Resources the GOUVERNE
Project
  • FP5 Research Project implemented by a
    consortium of partners, including the European
    Commissions Joint Research Centre.
  • Aims
  • Application of suitable tools, namely scenario
    analysis to the policy debate on The future of
    ground water resources in a valley in the South
    West of France.

23
GOUVERNE Project
  • Involvement of all relevant social actors or
    stakeholders in the debate.
  • Develop an ICT tool to support decision-making
    and policy-making processes/

24
GOUVERNE Methodology in Brief
  • Interviews to identify major stakeholders in
    study area and understand nature of issue and
    conflicting interests in the French valley.
  • Focus groups with stakeholders to identify (1)
    Drivers which are likely to affect the future
    water system (hydrological system) of the valley.
  • Scenario Analysis based on identified drivers of
    change scenarios are narratives describing how
    stakeholders see the valley change in 2015
  • Ranking of these scenarios. Which is the most
    likely or preferred scenario?

25
GOUVERNe Project
  • The outcome of the project
  • Scenarios for the future hydrological system of
    the valley
  • Stakeholder awareness and involvement in resource
    governance.
  • An ICT tool for better resource management.

26
Look-out Panels identifying biomarkers of
environmental health.
  • Specialised look-out panels set up within public
    and/or private sector to identify biomarkers of
    environmental health. Panels may form part of the
    permanent set-up of organisation or appointed
    ad-hoc.
  • Properties of biomarkers
  • Early-warning signals of stress/disease and
    environmental degradation. Described as
    surrogate end-points as they can identify early
    symptoms before disease actually manifests itself
    e.g. heart disease.
  • Huge savings on health care systems.
  • Biomarkers must be evaluated and validated (e.g.
    by community reference laboratories).

27
  • Examples of Biomarkers
  • Medicine and Health
  • Blood pressure and cholesterol-LDL as surrogate
    end points of heart disease.
  • Reduced T lymphocyte count and HIV load as
    surrogate end point of AIDS.
  • Genetic fingerprinting
  • Environment
  • Changes in DNA structure as a result of exposure
    to organic pollutants (PCBs)
  • Accumulation of deposits in cells of molluscs as
    a result of heavy metal contamination
  • Reproductive sterility
  • Embryonic deformities in echinoderms such as sea
    urchin.
  • Eutrophication an indicator of nutrient
    enrichment
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