Title: Foresight A Tool for Environmental Assessment
1Foresight A Tool for Environmental Assessment
Management
- Lisa Pace
- Malta Council for Science Technology
- Lisa.pace_at_mcst.org.mt
2Outline
- Dimensions of environment.
- Uncertainty in complex Environmental Systems
- Rationale for carrying out foresight-type
exercises in environment-related issues. - Techniques/tools used in environmental foresight.
- Participatory processes and dialogue
- Consensus conferences
- Scenario analysis. Decision-support tools.
- Look-out panels Biomarkers
3The Environment A Complex System
E C O N O M I C D I M E N S I O N
4Addressing Complex Environmental Problems as
Systems
- Priority areas of action in the ECs Sixth
Environment Action Programme Environment 2010
Our future, our choice -
- Climate Change (Green House Gas GHG- Emissions)
- Nature and protection of biodiversity
- Environment and Health
- Sustainable use of natural resources
- Chemicals and Air Pollution
- Waste Prevention and Recycling
-
5Transport
6Environmental represent Complex Systems with high
degree of Uncertainty
- Incomplete information or knowledge exists on how
these systems work. - Little is known on how they impact the
environment and society. - The impact is difficult to quantify.
- Models may propose different outcomes.
7These systems raise uncertainties of many sorts.
- What is the impact of GMOs on natural
biodiversity and human health? What is the cost
of a No GMO Policy? - How will climate change impact biodiversity?
- What is the impact of fisheries on marine
ecosystems?
8In this climate of uncertainty
- Decisions must be made TODAY, before conclusive
evidence is available. - The stakes revolving around these issues are
normally high, with strong economic and social
interests which often conflict with environmental
aspects. - What if these decisions are wrong? What impact
will they have on society at large? - How can uncertainties be taken into account in
environmental policy-making?
9Environmental Assessment measuring, managing,
reducing uncertainty
- Uncertainties cannot be eliminated but simply
managed effectively and in a transparent manner. - Methodologies to assess the risk and uncertainty
associated with a policy issue. Environmental
Assessment. The degree or level of uncertainty
must be presented to policy-maker. - Methodology to assess or evaluate knowledge
generated in policy process. How robust and
reliable is this knowledge? And therefore how
effectively does it contribute to policy cycle?
10Creating socially-robust Knowledge to manage
(reduce) uncertainty
- Public participation stakeholder engagement -
in policy cycle. Increased legitimacy and
transparency (this is more about the process
other than the product!) - Quality control such as extended peer review.
- Interdisciplinarity
- Accountability and Transparency of policy-making
process. - Holistic approach to environmental management
Ecosystems Management Approach
11The policy cycle
- Foresight is seen to feed into the policy cycle
at three levels - It provides tools for stakeholder engagement.
Involvement in the policy process - It provides for visions of future policy options
through scenario analysis. - It can be used as an early warning signal of
environmental problems
12Rationale for carrying out Environmental
Foresight (1)
- Prospective analysis can be used to
identify emerging problems and solutions early.
Provide an Early-Warning System to
environmental issues/problems. - This is more effective than the
conventional approach of waiting to act until
adverse effects on the environment and human
health are high and in some cases irreversible.
(Alternative Futures, June 2003). - Foresight can help questions such as
what are the envisaged future environmental
problems? What steps should be taken to solve
them (e.g. air pollution and its management) and
even perhaps prevent such problems from arising
in the first place? - Foresight is useful in environmental assessment,
a tool which provides basic information on the
current state of the environment but also
addresses the future state of the environment
(EEA, 2000).
13Rationale for carrying out Environmental
Foresight (1)
- Foresight is a useful tool for synthesising
and communicating complex and extensive
scientific information to decision makers and the
public, thus bridging the gap between scientists
and the community. - A participatory approach in a foresight exercise
promotes Dialogue i.e. interaction and mutual
exchange of ideas or results between stakeholders
(including scientists) with the aim of promoting
co-operation it is a process of multi-lateral
communication across disciplines and institutions
14A toolbox of foresight methods can be applied to
environmental management
- 1. Scenario Analysis with both qualitative
and quantitative elements (SAS, story-line and
simulation). Back-casting techniques - 2. Consensus conferences
- 3. Expert Panels
- 4. Delphi surveys
- 5. Look-out Panels
- 6. modelling
- Not all these methods are future-oriented but
complement techniques typically used in foresight
exercises. Scenario analysis is the major
foresight tool used in environmental management
strategies.
15Participatory approach in Environmental
Policy-making Building a Science Society
Dialogue
- A participatory approach in a foresight exercise
promotes Dialogue i.e. interaction and mutual
exchange of ideas or results between stakeholders
(including scientists) with the aim of promoting
co-operation it is a process of multi-lateral
communication across disciplines and institutions
16(No Transcript)
17Consensus Conferences
- Democratic tool used to promote dialogue between
experts and non-experts. - Involves the non-expert or lay public in
policy-making process where the non-expert could
include decision-makers in company
(top-management), directors in government
departments, ministers, lay public, board of
directors etc. - Described as a Citizens Jury. A citizens or
lay panel a list of key questions to address to
an expert panel during the three-day conference. - Used to discuss hot, emerging issues in ST.
18Consensus Conferences
- Examples
- Widely used in Denmark in relation to public
perception of GM Foods and gene therapy. - UK National Consensus Conference on Plant
Biotechnology, 1996 - UK National Consensus Conference on Waste, 1996
- Fast Food and technoburgers, Norwegian Consensus
Conference, 1996 - Safety and Ethics of GMOS, Korea 1998
- Korean Second Consensus Conference on Cloning,
1999 - Australian Biotech Consensus Conference, 1999 (GM
Foods and Feed Issues)
19Scenario Building
20Example 1 COOL Climate OptiOns for the
Long-term, The NetherlandsCombined
Qualitative-Quantitative and Anticipatory
(normative) scenarios
- Two-year foresight exercise with the goal of
- Developing recommendations for drastic (80)
Green House Gas (GHG) emission reductions by 2050
compared to 1990 levels. - Time-horizon 2050
- Baseline year 1990
- Discussed possibility of emission reductions in 4
sectors (1) Industry Energy (2) Housing
Construction (3) Transport Traffic and (4)
Agriculture Nutrition. - Back-casting Technique retrospective in that
starts from a pre-determined desirable final
state and explores conditions and strategies to
achieve this state. It can be divided into a
number of steps.
21Back-casting Technique to build Scenarios for
Energy Sector
22Governance of Water Resources the GOUVERNE
Project
- FP5 Research Project implemented by a
consortium of partners, including the European
Commissions Joint Research Centre. - Aims
- Application of suitable tools, namely scenario
analysis to the policy debate on The future of
ground water resources in a valley in the South
West of France.
23GOUVERNE Project
- Involvement of all relevant social actors or
stakeholders in the debate. - Develop an ICT tool to support decision-making
and policy-making processes/
24GOUVERNE Methodology in Brief
- Interviews to identify major stakeholders in
study area and understand nature of issue and
conflicting interests in the French valley. - Focus groups with stakeholders to identify (1)
Drivers which are likely to affect the future
water system (hydrological system) of the valley. - Scenario Analysis based on identified drivers of
change scenarios are narratives describing how
stakeholders see the valley change in 2015 - Ranking of these scenarios. Which is the most
likely or preferred scenario?
25GOUVERNe Project
- The outcome of the project
- Scenarios for the future hydrological system of
the valley - Stakeholder awareness and involvement in resource
governance. - An ICT tool for better resource management.
26Look-out Panels identifying biomarkers of
environmental health.
- Specialised look-out panels set up within public
and/or private sector to identify biomarkers of
environmental health. Panels may form part of the
permanent set-up of organisation or appointed
ad-hoc. - Properties of biomarkers
- Early-warning signals of stress/disease and
environmental degradation. Described as
surrogate end-points as they can identify early
symptoms before disease actually manifests itself
e.g. heart disease. - Huge savings on health care systems.
- Biomarkers must be evaluated and validated (e.g.
by community reference laboratories).
27- Examples of Biomarkers
- Medicine and Health
- Blood pressure and cholesterol-LDL as surrogate
end points of heart disease. - Reduced T lymphocyte count and HIV load as
surrogate end point of AIDS. - Genetic fingerprinting
- Environment
- Changes in DNA structure as a result of exposure
to organic pollutants (PCBs) - Accumulation of deposits in cells of molluscs as
a result of heavy metal contamination - Reproductive sterility
- Embryonic deformities in echinoderms such as sea
urchin. - Eutrophication an indicator of nutrient
enrichment