Enrollment Decline Study Commissioner

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Technical College System of Georgia
Enrollment Decline StudyCommissioners
Summary Office of Planning and Research
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Enrollment Decline Study

• Key findings
• There is no single factor, condition, practice or
  policy which has precipitated enrollment decline,
  but a combination of factors.
• Proprietary schools in Georgia have experienced
  enormous growth in recent years with a 28.4 jump
  in enrollment between 2003 and 2004 and a 14
  increase between 2004 and 2005. With two years
  of double-digit growth, the number of students
  enrolled in proprietary schools increased rapidly
  from 30,255 students in FY2003 to 44,323 students
  in FY2005.
• In FY2005, almost half (48.8) of all students
  entering technical colleges in the fall were not
  retained.
• Developmental studies enrollment decreased by
  12.3 percent from FY2005 to FY2006 (31,979 to
  28,037) which is much larger than the system
  enrollment decrease of 1.5 percent.

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Enrollment Decline Study

• Methodology
• Several different methodologies were
  incorporated for this particular study, depending
  upon the factor or potential relationships of
  factors.
• Regression analysis was used to determine the
  relationship and degree of correlation among
  variables such as workplace unemployment rates to
  student enrollment, high school graduates,
  budget, and population growth.
• Data for this study was extracted from multiple
  sources, both internal and external including the
  Department of Technical and Adult Education Data
  Center, the National Center for Education
  Statistics, the Georgia Department of Labor and
  the Georgia Department of Education.
• To obtain primary source information, focus
  groups were conducted at nine different schools
  around the state including Gwinnett, DeKalb,
  Coosa Valley, Appalachian, Southwest Georgia,
  Valdosta, Southeast Georgia, Altamaha, and
  Savannah Technical Colleges. Schools were
  selected based upon changes in enrollment, size,
  and geographic location.

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Enrollment Decline Study

• General factors contributing to enrollment
  decline
• Technical college students are at-risk students
  facing almost insurmountable
• barriers to academic success (Cohen Brawer,
  1987), including poor
• academic skills, family and work pressures, and
  financial difficulties.
• Unlike the traditional or residential college
  student, students at technical colleges are often
  faced with competing demands on their time
  (Stewart, Merril, Saluri, 1985).
• Technical college students tend to be older, are
  more likely to be working and are more likely to
  interrupt their enrollments for personal or
  employment reasons.
• Lack of adequate preparation for post secondary-
  level work, passage of time and the commensurate
  erosion of academic skills are indications of the
  hindrances to academic success of these students.
  

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Enrollment Decline Study
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Enrollment Data
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Enrollment Decline Study
Enrollment by Program
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Enrollment Decline Study
Enrollment by Program
Technology Group FY 2002 FY 2003 FY 2004 FY 2005 FY 2006 Change
Agriculture/Natural Resource Technologies 1,252 1,565 1,410 1,409 1,345 7
Business Technologies 38,633 41,249 42,596 39,905 38,334 -1
CIS Technologies 32,997 28,927 23,941 17,768 14,720 -55
Health Technologies 24,310 32,223 39,305 46,454 48,226 98
Industrial Technologies 34,256 35,814 35,830 32,247 32,099 -6
Personal Service Technologies 15,073 19,998 24,305 25,653 26,231 74

• The major changes in enrollment from FY 2002 to
  FY 2006 have been the dramatic and steady
  increase of students enrolled in Health and
  Personal Service programs and the steady decrease
  of students in Computer Information Systems (CIS)
  programs.
• Of the 48,226 students enrolled in Health
  technologies in FY 2006, 69 of the enrollment
  was in three major groups 1) Health Care
  Assistant, 2) Practical Nursing and Related
  Programs 3) Medical Assisting.
• CIS enrollment has plummeted from 32,997 in FY
  2002 to 14,720 in FY 2002, a decrease of 55.

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Enrollment Decline Study
Enrollment by Consortia
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Wait List
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Enrollment Decline Study
Wait List
  FALL 2004 FALL 2005
PROGRAM AREA ofStudents ofStudents
AGRICULTURAL/NAT RES TECHNOLOGIES 0 0
BUSINESS TECHNOLOGIES 235 196
CIS TECHNOLOGIES 50 32
HEALTH TECHNOLOGIES 10,771 9,437
INDUSTRIAL TECHNOLOGIES 632 333
PERSONAL SERVICE TECHNOLOGIES 1,335 882
UNDECLARED 0 0
TOTAL STUDENTS ON WAIT LIST 13,023 10,880
CIS Technologies are reported separate from Business Technologies beginning with Fall 2001 Wait List. CIS Technologies are reported separate from Business Technologies beginning with Fall 2001 Wait List.
Engineering/Science Technologies are reported under Industrial Technologies.  
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Enrollment Decline Study
Wait List

• Waiting lists for programs in the health
  technologies area are quite commonplace,
  sometimes with waiting periods up to two years.
• Waiting lists often have detrimental effects,
  since students who are unable to pursue their
  chosen areas of study or enroll in required
  courses take longer to graduate and may be more
  inclined to drop out or transfer.
• Before HOPE caps were put into place, students on
  waiting lists often took program-related courses
  to enhance their skills while waiting to get into
  their chosen area of study. Now, with HOPE caps
  in place, students are far more hesitant to take
  courses while waiting to get into their program
  of study in fear of using up all their HOPE
  credit hours.
• Because of HOPE caps many students are forced to
  stop out of school until they can get into
  their program of choice, transfer to another
  institution, or change to another program of
  study.

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Competition
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Enrollment Decline Study
Proprietary Schools
Proprietary Schools with Largest Enrollments
Source NCES/IPEDS Enrollment
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Enrollment Decline Study
Proprietary Schools

• Although the exact number of proprietary schools
  operating in Georgia is unknown, sixty-six
  proprietary schools in Georgia report data to the
  National Center for Education Statistics.
• Proprietary schools in Georgia have experienced
  enormous growth in recent years with a 28.4 jump
  in enrollment between 2003 and 2004 and a 14
  increase between 2004 and 2005.
• Students attending these schools are eligible for
  federal financial aid including grants, loans,
  and other financial assistance.
• Tuition costs do not seem to be a factor for
  students since average yearly tuition at the
  two-year proprietary schools is approximately
  12,558 compared to the average yearly tuition of
  1,116 at Georgia Technical Colleges.

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Enrollment Decline Study
Appeal of Proprietary Schools

• Many for-profit institutions offer accelerated
  programs.
• Most proprietary schools do not require students
  to take core classes that dont relate directly
  to their program of study. Students at
  proprietary institutions think that this allows
  them to learn the skills they need to get a job
  without taking classes that they consider
  irrelevant.
• Convenience in terms of schedule and location is
  also an appealing quality of the proprietary
  school. The flexible scheduling of classes is an
  important benefit offered by proprietary schools,
  particularly those that target the working adult
  population.
• Flexible admissions standards many for-profit
  institutions focus on a students commitment and
  motivation rather than placement tests or prior
  academic records.

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Enrollment Decline Study
Enrollment of USG Schools vs. DTAE Schools
USG Schools within close proximity to DTAE Schools
USG Two-Year Colleges Fall 2004 Fall 2005 Fall 2004 to Fall 2005 Change DTAE Technical Colleges Fall 2004 Fall 2005 Fall 2004 to Fall 2005 Change
Abraham Baldwin Agricultural College 3,362 3,423 2 Moultrie Technical College 1,952 1,962 1
Atlanta Metropolitan College 1,802 1,748 -3 Atlanta Technical College 3,372 3,534 5
Bainbridge College 2,620 2,475 -6 Southwest Technical College 1,708 1,491 -13
Coastal Georgia Community College 2,879 3,063 6 Savannah Technical College 3,899 3,790 -3
Darton College 4,126 4,578 11 Albany Technical College 2,887 2,825 -2
East Georgia College 1,318 1,511 15 Swainsboro Technical College 797 684 -14
Georgia Highlands College 3,416 3,817 12 Coosa Valley Technical College 2,793 2,893 4
Gainesville College 5,781 5,985 4 Lanier Technical College 3,221 3,206 0
Georgia Perimeter College 20,316 20,461 1 DeKalb Technical College 4,596 4,083 -11
Gordon College 3,449 3,500 1 Griffin Technical College 3,577 3,408 -5
Middle Georgia College 2,627 2,677 2 Heart of Georgia 1,518 1,755 16
South Georgia College 1,443 1,504 4 East Central Technical College 1,373 1,238 -10
Waycross College 1,005 882 -12 Okefenokee Technical College 2,033 1,731 -15
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Enrollment Decline Study
University System of Georgia Schools

• In an effort to increase the number of Georgians
  earning college degrees, the University System of
  Georgia launched a pilot admissions program in
  Fall 2005 that eliminates the use of SAT and ACT
  scores in determining an applicants eligibility
  for admission to any of the states 12 public
  two-year colleges and four state colleges. The
  new admissions standard is similar to DTAE.
• University System and Technical College systems
  appear to be, in effect, blending missions with
  many of the two-year University System colleges
  by increasing the number of short-term, terminal
  award programs in vocationally specific areas
  while the Technical College System of Georgia has
  implemented changes by moving toward COC
  accreditation and working on articulation/transfer
  agreements with two- and four-year colleges.
• Most University System schools experienced
  increases in FTE between Fall 2004 and Fall 2005.

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Budget
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Enrollment Decline Study
Budget

• Much of DTAEs history has been a story of
  uninterrupted growth. For over a decade the
  enrollments increased, funding increased, and the
  system grew by almost every measure. The
  relationship between funding levels and
  enrollment levels was not fully explored at that
  time because everything was going up.
• Limited state budgets from FY2001 forward have
  not kept up with enrollment growth. State
  funding per FTE (in constant dollars) decreased
  from 5,523/FTE in FY1999 to 3,956 in FY2004.
  This decline affected the colleges in many ways,
  including deferred maintenance, substitution of
  adjuncts for full-time faculty, reduction in
  evening classes, limited student support
  services, and increased fees. These changes, in
  turn, could have affected student enrollment.
• The data suggest a 4-year lag before changes in
  funding actually begin to cause changes in
  enrollment
• If funding declines do lead to enrollment
  declines, the formula would perpetuate those
  decreases, as reduced funding leads to reduced
  enrollment leads to further reduced funding. In
  such a model, several years of level funding
  could be required in order to restore system
  stability.

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Enrollment Decline Study
Relationship Between Change in Dollars to
Change in FTE Count
Fiscal Year Change FTE's Change per FTE Change in Full-Time Faculty per FTE
FY1995 4.6    
FY1996 6.1    
FY1997 6.7    
FY1998 7.1    
FY1999 5.9 -1.9 -3.9
FY2000 7.6 14.1 -2.9
FY2001 14.8 0.0 -1.9
FY2002 22.1 4.4 0.3
FY2003 7.2 3.4 -6.5
FY2004 3.5 -3.5 -16.4
FY2005 -4.9 -10.4 -4.8
FY2006 -3.8 -16.7 1.5
FY2007   -0.8  
FY2008   0.4  
FY2009   2.7  

• The accompanying chart shows the percent change
  in state appropriations per FTE plotted against
  the percent change in FTEs four years later.
• This may not be a direct correlation, but the
  intermediate variables, which are caused by the
  funding decline and in turn cause the drop in
  enrollment, are numerous and varied.
• One likely candidate is the reduction in
  full-time faculty per FTE, which is shown on the
  graph with a 3-year lag.

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Enrollment Decline Study
Relationship Between Change in Dollars to
Change in FTE Count
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Focus Groups
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Enrollment Decline Study
Participating Schools
Technical Colleges selected to participate in the
focus groups were Altamaha, Appalachian, Coosa
Valley, DeKalb, Gwinnett, Savannah, Southeastern,
Southwest, and Valdosta.
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Enrollment Decline Study

• Key factors in enrollment decline indicated by
• focus groups around the state include
• Wait Lists for classes
• Family/job responsibilities
• Transportation/distance/fuel
• Course delivery/scheduling/sequencing
• Transferability of classes
• Financial aid issues
• Negative perception of technical colleges
• Additional student costs books, fees, course
  equipment

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Enrollment Decline Study
Student Voices from our Schools
Heavily Discussed Cost of books Transferability
of classes Wait lists Faculty Family/job
responsibilities Transportation/Gas Prices

Moderately Discussed Child care HOPE
cap Developmental classes Financial
aid Perception Scheduling/Flexibility
Infrequently Discussed Online classes Night
classes Dual enrollment Parental pressure
Wait List
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Enrollment Decline Study
Students Why did you choose a/your Technical
College?

• Hands on immediately tells you if you want to do
  that major
• Instructor devoted to helping/taking time with
  students
• Convenience good training good schedule
• Wanted to be able to start a job with knowledge
  of how to actually do the job
• Close to home

Wait List
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Enrollment Decline Study
Student Quotes

• Money is one of the biggest issues of coming to
  school or not coming
• Book prices are insane
• Public perception is not respected
• Local school system pushed University System only
• Courses should transfer between schools
• Advertise change their perception sell what we
  offer, get the message out
• Night classes needed for those who work
• Most people are very negative when you tell them
  you attend a technical college
• Financial aid especially pell doesnt help
  students until after the quarter is over
• Community perception/high school perception is
  technical college is for those who

Wait List
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Enrollment Decline Study
Faculty/Staff Voices from our Schools
Heavily Discussed HOPE Cap Dual
enrollment Unemployment rates Wait
lists Transportation/Gas prices Course delivery
Moderately Discussed Internal policies/procedures
Competition Public Relations Perception
Transferability
Infrequently Discussed Course scheduling/sequencin
g Unclear mission Population Budget cuts Service
areas
DTAE
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Enrollment Decline Study
Faculty/Staff What message would you like to
send DTAEs Central Office?

• Heads up for planning
• Communicate down to the schools
• Didnt really have a decline because there was a
  spike due to plant closings
• Develop state guidelines to market programs
• Regionalization of programs

Wait List
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Enrollment Decline Study

• Conclusions
• Enrollment decline in technical colleges is not
  merely a Georgia phenomenon, but a regional and
  national trend.
• Student needs vary and the span of needs must be
  met successfully
• Most students receive financial aid
• Many require developmental courses in basic
  skills before entering their chosen occupational
  programs
• They may be single parents with additional family
  responsibilities
• They and/or their spouses may need to work
  multiple jobs to enable one member to attend
  classes
• Items such as student fees and program costs
  (uniforms, etc.) may be almost impossible
  expenses for them
• The escalating cost of books even more of a
  go/no-go factor
• Students in rural (as opposed to metropolitan
  area students) must consider fuel costs as they
  may have long (30 to 100 miles) commutes to
  school.

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Enrollment Decline Study

• Recommendations
• The Focus Group facilitation team strongly
  recommends that DTAE undertake a
• more substantive study on enrollment management
  and enrollment declines.
• Specifically
• DTAE must better communicate mission, vision, and
  marketplace alignment to its schools and
  consumers. Look at North Carolinas system for
  community/technical colleges for best practices.
• More aggressive/targeted marketing, add more
  curb appeal to programs.
• Reduce waiting list for specific programs. (Some
  programs are 1-2 years)
• Equalize institutional accreditations. Formally
  work out the overall issues of the transfer of
  students and their credits with other Georgia
  Colleges/ Universities (Board of Regents)