Governor's Office of Emergency Services Statewide Exercise Program

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• Governors Office of Emergency Services Statewide
  Exercise Program
• Southern Region Catastrophic Earthquake Exercise
  partnering with
• United States Geological Survey
• Golden Guardian 2008
• Dare to Prepare Campaign
• Earthquake Country Alliance

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Governors Office of Emergency Services Statewide
Exercise Program

• Ms. Curry Mayer, State Exercise Officer
• State Exercise Program Update
• New Exercise Page
• Statewide Exercise Strategy
• Training and Exercise Needs Assessment
• SEMS/NIMS Integration 07/08

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Governors Office of Emergency Services Statewide
Exercise Program

• State Emergency Responder Credentialing Program
• New Specialist Certificates
• State Emergency Plan/Administrative Orders
• COOP/COG and ORP
• GG 07
• The NEW FEMA
• Federal DHS National Exercise Program

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Governors Office of Emergency Services Southern
Regional Administrator

• Mr. Stephen Sellers
• 12 Years at OES
• Over 45 State and Federal Disasters
• Southern Region contains 2/3 of the States
  diverse population
• Nuclear Power Plants, 2 major port complexes,
  fires, floods, earthquakes, tsunamis, etc
• Regional Emergency Operations Center

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Why we must act now.

• 2007 is the 150th anniversary of the last great
  San Andreas earthquake in Southern California.
• Scientists are nervous about the potential for
  another great earthquake on the San Andreas
  fault, especially the southernmost section.
• There will be major loss of life and property
  unless we each take action now to be ready, by
  securing our buildings and their contents.

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Common beliefs about earthquakes

• California will fall in the ocean someday
• Northridge was a big-one
• It wont happen here
• Earthquakes happen in the morning, when its hot
  and dry, etc.
• The most damage in an earthquake is always at
  the epicenter
• Scientists really do know how to predict
  earthquakes but dont want to cause a panic

Myths...
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The San Andreas - our master fault
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Lets talk about our faults
SCEC Community Fault Model 3-dimensional
structures of major faults
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Major Southern California faults in 3D
SoCalFaults3D.mov

• The Puente Hills fault
• Four large earthquakes in the last 10,000 years.
• A potential 7.5 magnitude earthquake on this
  fault will cause great devastation.
• These earthquakes occur much less frequently than
  San Andreas earthquakes.

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Southern California is Earthquake Country!
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23 large earthquakes since 1933
Date Time (local)
Location
Magnitude 1. 03.10.1933 554 pm Long
Beach 6.4 2. 03.25.1937 849 am San
Jacinto 6.0 3. 05.18.1940 837 pm Imperial
Valley 6.9 4. 10.21.1942 930 am Fish Creek
Mountains 6.6 5. 03.15.1946 549 am Walker
Pass 6.0 6. 04.10.1947 758 am Manix 6.5 7. 12.
04.1948 343 pm Desert Hot Springs 6.0 8. 07.21.1
952 352 am Kern County 7.5 9. 11.21.1952 1146
pm Bryson 6.2 10. 03.19.1954 154 am Arroyo
Salada 6.4 11. 04.09.1968 629 pm Borrego
Mountain 6.5 12. 02.09.1971 601 am San
Fernando 6.6 13. 10.15.1979 454 pm Imperial
Valley 6.4 14. 07.08.1986 221 am North Palm
Springs 5.9 15. 10.01.1987 742 am Whittier
Narrows 5.9 16. 11.23.1987 554 pm Elmore
Ranch 6.2 17. 11.24.1987 515 am Superstition
Hills 6.6 18. 04.22.1992 950 pm Joshua
Tree 6.1 19. 06.28.1992 457 am Landers 7.3 20.
06.28.1992 805 am Big Bear 6.3 21. 01.17.1994
430 am Northridge 6.7 22. 10.16.1999 246
am Hector Mine 7.1 23. 12.22.2003 1115 am San
Simeon 6.5
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Potential earthquake shaking
Regions near major, active faults, will on
average experience stronger shaking more
frequently. This intense shaking can damage even
strong, modern buildings.
Regions distant from known, active faults. Will
experience lower levels of shaking. In most
earthquakes, only weaker masonry buildings would
be damaged. However, very infrequent earthquakes
could still cause strong shaking here.
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Northridge earthquake

• Jan. 17, 1994
• Magnitude 6.7
• 10x10 mile section of fault moved, all
  underground, from Southeast to Northwest
• 40 billion
• 33 deaths

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Ft. Tejon Earthquake our last Big One

• Jan. 9, 1857
• Magnitude 7.9
• 225 mile long rupture, from Northwest to Southeast

Northridge

• As long as 23 Northridge-sized faults
• Today at least 150 billion

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Southern California in 1857
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Southern California in 2007

• Over 23 million people
• Fastest growing areas are close to the San
  Andreas

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Our most likely next Big One

• Southernmost San Andreas
• Magnitude 7.8
• Shaking for 2-4 minutes!
• This will likely happen in our lifetimes, and
  could actually happen today.

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Strong shaking throughout the most populated
areas of So. Cal.

• A regional disaster
• You and your neighbors will need to rely on each
  other for several days join or form a Community
  Emergency Response Team (CERT)

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Sediment-filled valleys amplify shaking
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Sediment-filled valleys amplify shaking
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SanAndreasEarthquake.mov
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Most railroads, highways, aqueducts, power lines
into LA cross the San Andreas fault
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EQ 000000
EQ 000000

• 000000 Earthquake Nucleates
• 000010 Electric Circuits Near Epicenter Begin
  to Trip Off
• 000010 DWP et al. and ISO Op- Centers Initiate
  Power Shedding to Balance Grid
• 000015 Progressive Blackout of Region
  Initiated to Prevent Cascading Failure
• 000030 Strong Ground Motions Felt Throughout
  Southern California

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EQ 000035

• 000035 State Warning Center Receives Calls
  from Southern Counties on CALWAS Expletive!
  Were having an Earthquake
• 000045 Electrical Power Off in Most of the
  Southern California
• 000100 Earthquake Reported on Fox and CNN

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EQ 000100

• Strong Ground Motions Taper Off
• Southern County 911 Centers are Saturated
• Phone Systems Saturated
• State Warning Center Begins Notification of Key
  State Agencies, Executive Staff, Governors
  Office

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EQ 000300

• CISN Posts Location of Earthquake Epicenter
• Local Governments Responding to What They Can See
• State Warning Center Initiates Activation of
  State Operations Center
• CalTrans Initiates Remote Video Inspections of
  Bridges (If Operational)

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EQ 000300

• CalTrans Maintenance and Traffic Operations
  Personnel Mobilized to EOCs and Maintenance
  Facilities
• Media Provides Initial Public Information on
  Emergency Alert System

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EQ 000500

• CISN Posts Epicenter Location, Magnitude
• UC Berkeley Confirms Magnitude, Location to
  State Warning Center
• Caltech Off-line
• WCATWC Issues Tsunami Information Bulletin

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EQ 000800

• CISN Posts First ShakeMap From UC Berkeley
• ShakeMap Downloaded to Federal, State and County
  Agencies
• ShakeMap is the First Image of the Event
• How Big?
• How Bad?
• Where?

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EQ 001000

• State OES Completes Notification of Executive
  Staff, State Agencies and FEMA
• Governor and Staff Briefed
• State OES Mobilizes Response Team To Sacramento
  and Southern Region
• Statewide Mobilization of Fire and Law Mutual Aid
  System
• California National Guard Mobilized

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EQ 002000

• USGS Issues Automated Aftershock Forecast (90
  Probability of M5 and Larger Aftershocks in Next
  7 days)
• 5 to 10 Probability of Larger Event

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USGS Aftershock Assessment

• 7 Day Interval Calculated 20 Minutes After the
  Quake
• Magnitude Probability Number
• --------------- -------------- ---------------
• 5 100 46 (33-59)
• 6 100 6 (1-10)
• 7 50 1 (0-2)

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EQ 003000

• OES GIS Staff are Recalled to Run HAZUS Loss
  Estimate
• Fire Mutual Aid Dispatched to Damaged Areas and
  Staging Areas
• CalTrans Imports ShakeMap into Damage Assessment
  Tools

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EQ 003500

• OES Executive Requests Federal Assistance from
  FEMA, Based on ShakeMap (National Response Plan)
• Urban Search Rescue Task Forces (USAR)
• Disaster Medical Assistance Teams (DMAT)
• Disaster Mortuary Teams (DMORT)
• Emergency Response Teams (ERT)
• Liaisons to Emergency Support Functions (ESF) for
  National Response Plan

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EQ 020000

• Initial HAZUS Damage Estimates Available
• State Provides Initial Damage Estimates to FEMA
  and Request Presidential Disaster Declaration
• CalTrans and Highway Patrol Coordinating
  Inspections and Traffic Controls
• CalTrans Assessing Residual Capacity

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HAZUS Estimates
Estimated Building Damage by Occupancy
None Moderate Extensive Complete
Commercial 65,869 3,015 1,030 410
Government 1,464 65 25 11
Industrial 10,657 730 226 56
Multi- Residential 409.108 47,053 28,837 17,942
SF Residential 4,295,313 65,055 2,453 236
TOTAL 116,046 32,617 18,671
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Lifeline Damage
Estimated Utility Pipeline Damage
Leaks Breaks
Potable Water 38,276 9,570
Waste Water 30,274 7,569
Natural Gas 32,361 8,091
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Highway Bridge Damage
Estimated Damage to Transportation
Moderate Complete gt50 Function/Day 1
Highways 0 0 All
Bridges 239 21 9,283/9,616
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Secondary Impacts
Estimated Fire Ignitions and Debris Generated

Post EQ Fires 123 Ignitions 1.79 Sq. Mi. Burned 5,579 Displaced
Debris Generated 5 Million tons 221,920 Truck Loads
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Care and Shelter Demand
Total Estimated Displaced Households Estimated Persons Seeking Shelter
Households 6,818,000 8,516
Population 20,637,512 2,517

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Electric Power Potable Water
Estimated Households Without Service
Day 1 Day 3 Day 30 Day 90
No Potable Water 1,593,365 1,556,943 1,133,432 184,250
No Electric Power 88,287 51,469 3,389 129
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Estimated Casualties
Injured Requiring Hospitalization Critical Care Hospitalization Fatalities
200 AM 5,232 1,005 95 170
200 PM 11,026 1,993 312 570
500 PM 6,843 1,894 755 524
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Economic Impact

Income Losses 1,761,530
Building Damage 14,770,060
Total Building Related Loss 16,531,590
TOTAL ECONOMIC LOSS 18,526,350,000
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Common beliefs about earthquake preparedness

• It won't happen to me
• Well just pick up the pieces
• Just get in the doorway
• Having water and supplies is enough
• Im prepared for anything
• My house has always done ok in earthquakes, it
  must be built very well
• It will be so big, nothing can be done

Myths...
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The Seven Steps to Earthquake Safety
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www.daretoprepare.org