A Clash of Civilizations?

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A Clash of Civilizations?

• The fundamental source of conflict in this new
  world will not be primarily ideological or
  primarily economic. The great divisions among
  humankind and the dominating source of conflict
  will be cultural. Nation states will remain the
  most powerful actors in world affairs, but the
  principal conflicts of global politics will occur
  between nations and groups of different
  civilizations. The clash of civilizations will
  dominate global politics. The fault lines
  between civilizations will be the battle lines of
  the future.

Samuel P. Huntington
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The Map of Civilizations
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Religion determines some civilizational borders
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Identity determines the rest

• West Latin America divide ethnicity?
• Sinic civilization Originally called
  Confucian. What is the basis for this bloc?
• African civilization Essentially what was left
  after drawing other civilizations

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Alignments shape civilizational conflicts
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Implication Fault Lines and Culture Clashes
Predict Conflict
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Decrease in conflicts
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Islam Has Bloody Borders and Bloody Innards
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a. Interstate War (Bloody Borders)

• Middle East is unusually prone to war
• Region is a better predictor than religion
  non-Islamic ME states fight as much as Islamic ME
  states, and Islamic non-ME states fight as much
  as non-Islamic non-ME states

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Which civilizations fight the most?
Islamic civilization has plenty of
conflicts. but other civilizations have more
civilizational conflicts!
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b. Internal War (Bloody Innards)

• ME region is more likely to experience political
  terror and human rights violations BUT region
  again outperforms religion
• Oil wealth correlates with both repression and
  civil war around the world
• Some majority-Muslim countries are democracies
  (Turkey, Bangladesh, Nigeria, Lebanon) but most
  are poor and poor countries tend to experience
  violence and repression

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Demographics of Islam

• What percentage of Arabs are Muslim?
• About 90
• What percentage of Muslims are Arab?
• About 20
• The largest Muslim country is
• Indonesia
• Where do Muslims live?
• Only 33 live in the Middle East
• 25 in South Asia, 20 in Africa

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Are inter-civilizational conflicts worse?
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Does Rivalry Matter?
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Rivalry Evidence for Learning