DISASTER PREPAREDNESS A KEY ELEMENT OF BECOMING DISASTER RESILIENT

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DISASTER PREPAREDNESSA KEY ELEMENT OF
BECOMING DISASTER RESILIENT
Walter Hays, Global Alliance for Disaster
Reduction, University of North Carolina, USA
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A FOCUS ONWHAT HAS BEEN LEARNED FROM DISASTER
PLANNING SCENARIOS

• NOTE THE TECHNIQUE WAS EXPLAINED LAST LECTURE

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EXAMPLES SCENARIO EARTHQUAKES IN CALIFORNIA,
MID-AMERICA, AND TOKAI AREA, JAPAN
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NOTE HAZARD MAPSARE BASED ON A PROBABILISTIC
MODEL

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NOTE RISK MODELING IS BASED ON HAZUS-MH(OR A
COMPARABLE MODEL)

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(No Transcript)
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MID-AMERICA GROUND SHAKING HAZARD MAP
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PGA MAP JAPAN (GSHAP)
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PURPOSE Information from disaster scenarios
will facilitate the adoption and implementation
of policies and plans to enable a city to protect
essential facilities and critical infrastructure
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CITY
DATA BASES AND INFORMATION
HAZARDS GROUND SHAKING GROUND FAILURE
SURFACE FAULTING TECTONIC DEFORMATION TSUNAMI RUN
UP AFTERSHOCKS
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DISASTERS OCCUR WHEN--- A CITYS (COMMUNITYS)
PUBLIC POLICIES LEAVE IT

• UNPREPARED
• FOR THE INEVITABLE NATURAL HAZARDS

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GLOBAL GOALFROM UNPREPARED TO A STATE
OF PREPAREDNESS FOR ALL CITIES AND
ALL NATURAL HAZARDS
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DISASTER SCENARIOS CAN PROVIDE POLICY
BREAKTHROUGHS

• With a disaster scenario, a citys leaders can
  make the decisions on what it will do to control
  and reduce its perceived risks (e.g., by adopting
  and implementing policies such as building codes,
  and lifeline standards to protect, and retrofit
  and rehabilitation to protect and sustain).

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DISASTER SCENARIOS CAN PROVIDE POLICY
BREAKTHROUGHS

• Much of the UNCERTAINTY in future emergency
  response and recovery phases will be eliminated
  if we can make the VIRTUAL REALITY of an
  EARTHQUAKE SCENARIO look like REALITY that we are
  prepared to cope with.

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EXAMPLE ONE EARTHQUAKE DISASTER PLANNING
SCENARIO FOR SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
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(SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA) EARTH-QUAKE DISASTER
PLANNING SCENARIO

• WHERE WILL THE EARTHQUAKE OCCUR?
• HOW BIG? HOW CLOSE?
• HOW DEEP? WHEN?
• THE DISASTER AGENTS?
• VULNERABILITIES IN THE BUILT ENVIRONMENT?
• EXPECTED DAMAGE?
• EXPECTED SOCIO-ECONOMIC IMPACTS?

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SCENARIO EARTHQUAKES FOR CALIFORNIA

• ADVANCE PLANNING SO THAT CALIFORNIA WILL BE
  READY WHEN THE INEVITABLE BIG ONES RECUR
• Source US Geological Survey

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California Catastrophic Disaster Planning
Scenario

• Major impact to large metropolitan areas
• Consequences would eclipse Katrina
• Large area of impact - 155,959 Sq. Miles
• Highly populated areas - 36M
• Significant earthquake risk throughout State

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California Catastrophic Disaster Planning
Scenario

• Tsunami risk
• Mass Evacuation
• Significant infrastructure impacts
• Response problems due to roadway
  collapse/blockage
• Estimated loss -- gt 400B

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A HAYWARD FAULT SCENARIO

• Because of its location in the densely populated
  Bay area of 7 million people, an earthquake on
  the Hayward fault is likely to be one of the
  nation's biggest natural disasters.

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HAYWARD FAULT ZONE
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A HAYWARD FAULT SCENARIO

• A Hayward fault earthquake potentially affects
  5 million people, and damages homes, schools,
  senior centers, hospitals, businesses, the Bay
  bridge, and the campus of UC Berkeley.

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HAYWARD FAULT SCENARIO
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IMPACTSSAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA

• A M 7.0 earthquake on the Hayward fault will
  cause an estimated 210 billion dollars in
  damage.
• The region's transportation infrastructure and
  water delivery systems will take a major hit.

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EXAMPLE TWO EARTHQUAKE DISASTER PLANNING
SCENARIO FOR LOS ANGELES AREA
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(LAS ANGELES AREA) EARTHQUAKE DISASTER PLANNING
SCENARIO

• WHERE WILL THE EARTHQUAKE OCCUR?
• HOW BIG? HOW CLOSE?
• HOW DEEP? WHEN?
• THE DISASTER AGENTS?
• VULNERABILITIES IN THE BUILT ENVIRONMENT?
• EXPECTED DAMAGE?
• EXPECTED SOCIO-ECONOMIC IMPACTS?

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SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AREA
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QUAKE SHAKEOUT SCENARIO

• The goal in the ShakeOut Scenario is to identify
  the physical, social and economic consequences of
  a major earthquake in southern California , and
  in so doing, enable end users to identify what
  they can change nowbefore the earthquakein
  order to avoid catastrophic impacts after the
  inevitable earthquake occurs.

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GROUND SHAKING 60 SECONDS AFTER FAULT RUPTURES
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IMPACTS

• The magnitude 7.8 ShakeOut earthquake causes
  about 1,800 deaths and 213 billion of economic
  losses.

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IMPACTS

• The estimates of about 1800 deaths and 213
  billion of economic losses indicate that much
  more retrofitting is still needed to protect and
  sustain.

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EXAMPLE THREE EARTHQUAKE DISASTER PLANNING
SCENARIO FOR MEMPHIS, TN AREA
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(MEMPHIS, TN AREA) EARTHQUAKE DISASTER PLANNING
SCENARIO

• WHERE WILL THE EARTHQUAKE OCCUR?
• HOW BIG? HOW CLOSE?
• HOW DEEP? WHEN?
• THE DISASTER AGENTS?
• VULNERABILITIES IN THE BUILT ENVIRONMENT?
• EXPECTED DAMAGE?
• EXPECTED SOCIO-ECONOMIC IMPACTS?

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NEW MADRID SEISMIC ZONE SCENARIOJUNE 2010 AND
MARCH 2008

• ASSUMPTIONS M7.7
• 200 AM
• http//mae.cee.illinois.edu/news/reportusa2.html

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NEW MADRID SEISMIC ZONE

• The New Madrid Seismic Zone, which covers parts
  of eight states Alabama, Mississippi, Arkansas,
  Illinois, Indiana, Missouri, Kentucky, and
  Tennessee, was the source of four great
  earthquakes (M8.0 to 8.8) in 1811-1812.

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ASSUMPTIONS OF SCENARIO

• Damage and loss estimates and the planning
  assumptions are predicated on the occurrence of
  a magnitude 7.7 earthquake at 200 am.

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ASSUMPTIONS OF SCENARIO

• The epicenter is assumed to be located
  approximately 33 miles North North-West of
  Memphis, TN.

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New Madrid Seismic Zone Catastrophic Disaster
Planning Scenario
Approximately 12 million people at high risk

• Consequences eclipse Katrina
• impact area - 126,575 Sq Miles
• 44M people in eight-State region
• Multiple jurisdictions and Governors

St. Louis 1.5-2 Million
IL
IN
MO
KY
TN
Rural Pop. 8-9 million 160200 Cities
AR
AL
MS
Memphis 1-1.5 Million
Directly Impacted States
Indirectly Impacted States
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New Madrid Seismic Zone Catastrophic Disaster
Planning Scenario
Approximately 12 million people at high risk

• Significant loss of infrastructure
• Response problems hindered by long aftershock
  sequence
• Estimated loss -- 300B
• Severe weather evacuation issues

St. Louis 1.5-2 Million
IL
IN
MO
KY
TN
Rural Pop. 8-9 million 160200 Cities
AR
AL
MS
Memphis 1-1.5 Million
Directly Impacted States
Indirectly Impacted States
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New Madrid Seismic Zone Catastrophic Disaster
Planning Scenario
Approximately 12 million people at high risk

• Nearly 86,000 total casualties
• 3,500 fatalities
• Estimated loss -- 300B

St. Louis 1.5-2 Million
IL
IN
MO
KY
TN
Rural Pop. 8-9 million 160200 Cities
AR
AL
MS
Memphis 1-1.5 Million
Directly Impacted States
Indirectly Impacted States
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SCENARIO IMPACTS

• 715,000 buildings will sustain heavy damage , and
  100,000 will be completely destroyed from strong
  ground shaking.

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SCENARIO IMPACTS

• Utilities will be interrupted, leaving 2.5
  MILLION without power, and water, gas, and waste
  disposal outages will occur over a wide area.

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SCENARIO IMPACTS

• Transportation systems (highways, bridges,
  airports, river traffic) throughout the region
  will lose their function.

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SCENARIO IMPACTS TN

• The State of Tennessee will incur the highest
  level of damage and social impacts, with over
  250,000 buildings moderately or severely
  damaged.

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SCENARIO IMPACTS TN

• Over 260,000 people will likely be displaced and
  over 80,000 casualties (injuries and fatalities)
  are expected.

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SCENARIO IMPACTS TN

• Total direct economic losses surpass 56 billion.

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EXAMPLE FOUR EARTHQUAKE DISASTER PLANNING
SCENARIO FOR TOKYO, JAPAN AREA
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(TOKYO, JAPAN AREA) EARTHQUAKE DISASTER
PLANNING SCENARIO

• WHERE WILL THE EARTHQUAKE OCCUR?
• HOW BIG? HOW CLOSE?
• HOW DEEP? WHEN?
• THE DISASTER AGENTS?
• VULNERABILITIES IN THE BUILT ENVIRONMENT?
• EXPECTED DAMAGE?
• EXPECTED SOCIO-ECONOMIC IMPACTS?

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EARTHQUAKE DISASTER PLANNING SCENARIOTOKAI,
JAPAN EARTHQUAKE ZONE160 KM FROM TOKYO

• PREPARING FOR AN EMINENT DISASTER

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REGIONAL MAP
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LOCATION OF TOKAI
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TOKAI EARTHQUAKE TECTONICS

• The section along Tokai, which has a recurrence
  interval of 100-150 years for large- magnitude
  earthquakes, has not ruptured since 1854.

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LOSSES TOKAI EARTHQUAKE

• Estimated deaths between 7,900 and 9,200
  depending on the amount of advance warning people
  have, the time of day when it occurs, and the
  tsunami.
• Property damage ---as much as 310 billion.

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IMPACTS TOKAI EARTHQUAKE

• Landslides -- 6,449 specific locations
• Structures susceptible to quake-related fires
  58,402 specific houses

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TODAYS POLICY PREPARE FOR THE TOKAI EARTHQUAKE
NOW

• The precise area along the Pacific coast-- about
  160 km (100 mi) southwest of Tokyo-- that is
  expected to be affected has been delineated by
  scientific studies, and is, by law, the focus of
  intensive preparations to become earthquake
  resilient..

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POLICY PROVIDE ADVANCE WARNING TO THE PEOPLE

• The Government of Japan is currently deploying
  strain meters throughout the Tokai area to record
  PRE-QUAKE slip and then provide as much advance
  warning as possible.

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FROM A DISASTER SCENARIO TO PUBLIC POLICY

• A disaster scenario facilitates dialogue on
  the best ways to form public policy for
  protecting the citys essential facilities and
  critical infra-structure, another key element of
  disaster resilience.

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THE GOAL OF EVERY CITY

• WELL PREPARED FOR ALL NATURAL HAZARDS (E.G.,
  FLOODS, SEVERE WINDSTORMS, EARTHQUAKES, ETC.)