Hugo Denier van der Gon

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Hugo Denier van der Gon Tinus Pulles

• PM update
• EU 2000 PM2.5 Inventory project

Task Force on Emission Inventories and
Projections' (TFEIP) Expert Panel on Agriculture
and Nature, Pruhonice , 26 April 2006
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Outline

• Background of the project
• Approach
• Expected results
• Time table
• Discussion points

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Background

• The European Commission
• is preparing for a revision of the National
  Emission Ceilings Directive in 2006. - NEC
  establishes national limits on the emission that
  can be emitted in a particular target year
• considers introducing national emission ceilings
  for PM2.5.
• To enable this, an accurate emission inventory of
  primary PM2.5 in the 25 EU Member States,
  acceding countries (Bulgaria, Romania) and
  Candidate Countries (Croatia, Turkey, FYR of
  Macedonia) is needed.
• Consortium
• TNO (NL, lead organisation)
• NETCEN / AEAT (UK)
• IVL (SW)
• Related project PM2.5 Guidebook update
  commissioned by EC / DG Env.

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Approach Build Generalized Inventory in
relational database structure
TNO Emissions Assessment Model TEAM

• To improve transparency direct link to
  Guidebook development
• Allowing identification of SNAP technologies and
  NFR sector codes
• Select_Techn links Activity to Technology
  allowing country-specific EFs
• Easy transformation of the data to other formats
  (e.g. RAINS)

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ApproachFirst order draft inventory
Derived from the CEPMEIP study
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ApproachFirst order draft inventory and
uncertainty analysis

• Key Source analysis
• Monte Carlo simulation to identify
• the uncertainties for each country
• the most important contributions to this
  uncertainty
• Objective
• direct the national experts attention to the
  major problems

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ApproachLiaison with Guidebook project and
TFEIP co-chairs
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ApproachConsultation with national experts
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ApproachSecond order draft based on comments
additional information of national experts
Review of 2nd O Draft, workshop screening
result in Final PM2.5 inventory

• Including a second draft
• Key source analysis
• Uncertainty
• Report, describing the inventory

One day workshop ?
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Expected result

• EU25 wide PM2.5 Emission Inventory that is
• Transparent
• Comparable
• Consistent
• Complete
• Accurate
• Provides all necessary information on key sources
  and uncertainties
• Can be used to develop emission ceilings

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The expected resultthe EU25 PM2.5 Inventory and
the RAINS model
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Time line 2006

• March / April
• Consultation with TFEIP expert panels
• Preparation of first order draft activity data
  done
• emission factors in progress
• Pre-first order ready

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Time line 2006

• March / April
• Consultation with TFEIP expert panels
• Preparation of first order draft activity data
  done
• emission factors in progress

• May / June / July
• Consultation with National Experts
• July / August
• Preparation of second order draft
• September / October
• Discussion of Second order draft

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What should be included in the inventory?
All emissions where the hand of man is
involved
PM10 PM2.5 PM2.5-10 - but do we know the
split?

• For combustion processes good defaults available.
  
• For all non-combustion processes with PM2.5
  fraction is 0-80 of PM10 we have a poor
  understanding. Research focus has been PM10, too
  little and possibly not applicable data for
  PM2.5 (e.g. the US situation may not apply).
• Excluded resuspension cannot exclude arable
  farming
• Examples of uncertain sources handling of bulk
  materials, construction sites, diffuse industrial
  emissions, agricultural management, wind blown
  dust from arable farming .In the literature
  the PM2.5 fraction in PM10 soil varies from 0
  50
• Here to introduce pick up the state of the
  art and/or consensus concerning agricultural PM
  emissions for what is lacking we will make a
  proposition

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Fraction PM2.5 arable farming emissions

• Goossens et al. 2001 - Field experiment at
  Grönheim (Germany) local emission (either by
  tillage or wind erosion ) D50 always gt 30 um.
• Chandler et al. (2002) (Washington state, US)
  30-55 of PM10 is PM2.5.indicating significant
  air quality impacts by wind erosion on this
  region.
• Matsumura et al. (1996) found a PM2.5/PM10 ratio
  of 0.18 0.12 for dust measurements at the
  downwind edge of a field during harvesting and
  land preparation activities.
• Varies from 0 20 50

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PM2.5 from arable farming What can we assume
for the Netherlands?
PS. Crustal material is not well-defined in
emission inventories. So you may know the
fraction in PM2.5 but w/o the absolute emission
strength
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• Thank you for your attention!
• More info, remarks?
• Hugo.deniervandergon_at_tno.nl
• Tinus.pulles_at_tno.nl