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Evaluating policy options for increasing the
RES-E penetration in Greece Dr. Harry D.
Kambezidis Research Director, Atmospheric
Research Team, Institute of Environmental
Research and Sustainable Development, National
Observatory of Athens, Greece Barbara Kasselouri
PhD Candidate, Hellenic Open University,
Greece Dr. Popi Konidari Head, Climate Change
Policy Unit, Energy Policy and Development
Centre, National and Kapodistrian University of
Athens, Greece
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Structure

• Introduction
• Problem
• Approach
• Conclusions

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EU Framework

• Directive 2009/28/EC
• 20 share of energy from Renewable Energy Sources
  (RES) by 2020
• 10 share of energy from RES in transport by 2020
• Mandatory national targets
• Common framework

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Hellenic targets

• 20.1 of gross electricity consumption produced
  using RES by 2010 (including large hydro power
  plants)
• 18 participation of RES in gross final energy
  use by 2020
• 30-35 participation of RES in electricity
  production
• 5.75 share of biofuels by 2010

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Problem

• Accomplishment of the 18 target by 2020
• Development of scenarios about distribution of
  RES technologies and not for policy mix

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Approach

• Development and economic assessment of three
  scenarios (BAU, Im-BAU, Q-RES) using Green-X
  simulation model
• Complete evaluation of the scenarios using the
  AMS method

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Green-X simulation model

• Deriving optimal promotion strategies for
  increasing the share of RES-E in a dynamic
  European electricity market
• Economic assessment of different policy
  instruments for increasing the RES-E penetration
  based on minimisation of generation costs and
  reduction of producer profits

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Common settings for scenarios

• Simulation period 2006 2020
• Fossil fuels prices price forecast for fossil
  energy carrier follows WETO projection plus a
  moderate CO2 constraint of 15 /tCO2
• Barriers currently existing non-economic
  barriers (market and administration constraints,
  social and technical barriers) remain
• Electricity generation concerns only that of the
  mainland

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BAU scenario Implementing Law 3468/2006

• FIT scheme whole period of simulation
• FIT annual increase 2 from year 2009
• Photovoltaics case FITs for 2009-2014 according
  to Law 3734/09, further average decrease (9,5)
  for 2015-2020
• Investment subsidy 30 for all RES technologies
  (average value of the three types of subsidies)

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Im-BAU scenario Promotion of wind and
photovoltaic technologies

• Investment subsidy 50 for wind and photovoltaic
  technologies during 2010 -2020
• Wind main investments in RES
• Installed capacity 854 MW
• With connection offer 3,000 MW
• Targeted capacity 6 GW (mainland)
• Photovoltaics contribution to long-term
  decrease of generation costs through the increase
  of production

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Q-RES scenarioImplementation of quota system for
2015-2020
Consistency with Directive 2009/28/EC
international trade cooperation among EU Member
States
Basic settings

• FITs remain until 2014
• Quota system is then applied for all RES and CHP
  technologies
• Quota setting 25 of total production for 2015,
  30 for 2020 (annual increase by 1)
• Penalty setting 180 /MWh

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Green-X results
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AMS method

• Multi-criteria analysis method
• Combination of three standard methods
• Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP)
• Multi-Atribute Utility Theory (MAUT)
• Simple Multi-Attribute Ranking Technique (SMART)

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AMS procedure

• Evaluation of the scenarios against a set of
  three criteria and eleven sub-criteria
• Determination of weight coefficients for
  criteria/sub-criteria using AHP
• Assignment of grades for the performance of
  scenarios using MAUT and SMART
• MAUT for data inputs
• SMART for assessment inputs

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Data and assessments
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AMS outcomes(Clim-AMS software)
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Grades of criteria/sub-criteria
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Conclusions

• Im-BAU
• Higher in political acceptability
• Cost efficiency and equity
• Sufficient contribution for accomplishing 18
  target by 2020
• Consistent with RES distribution technology

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Thank you

• Contact details
• Kasselouri Barbara
• PhD candidate of Open University
• e-mail bar_kass_at_hotmail.com

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Hellenic policy framework

• Law 2773/1999 - Liberalisation of electricity
  market
• Law 3468/06 - Electricity production from RES and
  Cogeneration of Heat and Power (CHP) high
  efficiency plants and other provisions
• Directive 2001/77/EC - integrated
• Law 3734/09 - Promotion of the cogeneration from
  two or more useful energy forms and other
  provisions
• Directive 2009/28/EC - not yet integrated

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Development of wind power 2003-2009
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Development of photovoltaics capacity 1995-2009
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Green-X results - 2