Review for the Final: I

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Review for the Final I

• Concepts and Analytics

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Part ICoordinating the Components of the
Criminal Justice SystemPart IIThe Serious
Offender
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Questions About Crime

• Can we explain trends in crime and trends in
  expenditure on the criminal justice system?
• What is the right mix of enforcement and
  corrections?

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Schematic of the Criminal Justice System
The Driving Force
Causes ?!!
Weak Link
Offense Rate Per Capita
Crime Generation
Expected Cost of Punishment
(detention, deterrence)
Expenditures
Crime Control
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Conclusions

• Causal conditions continue to get worse
• As a consequence we have to spend more real
  dollars per person to keep crime levels from
  rising
• Crime acts like a tax
• Californians spend 450 (1992) per person on
  criminal justice to keep things from getting worse

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Question

• What happened around 1980 to differentiate the
  50s, 60s, and 70s from the 80s and 90s?
• was there a change in behavior?
• was there a change in policy?

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Law Enforcement
Prosecution
Courts
Public Defense
State Prisons
Other Corrections
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Abstraction (Model) of the Criminal Justice System
New Admits
Enforcement Prosecution Defense Courts
State Prisons
Mean Years Served
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Tradeoff Between Criminal Justice System Outputs
Admits per Year per capita
?
average years served
tan ?? admits per year per capita/average years
served
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Capital constraint

• admits per capita per year average years served
  prisoners per capita
• Prisoners per capita is limited by prison
  capacity
• If you increase admits per capita per year, then
  average years served decreases until prison
  capacity catches up

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Coordinating CJS
Constraint Admits per yearAverage years served
Prisoners
Admits per Year
45 degrees
Average Years Served
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A Shifting Mix In Criminal Justice System Outputs
Facts 1. spend more 2. Admit more 3. shorter time
served
????
Admits per Year per capita, AD
????
Prison Capacity Constraint
?
?
average years served, S
tan ?? admits per year per capita/average years
served
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1994
1986
1952
1975
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Part II

• The Serious Offender
• a few serious criminals account for most crimes
• if free, each serious offender would commit
  crimes at the rate of ??per year
• if there are N serious offenders, they would
  commit ?N offenses per year, if free
• if there are PR serious offenders in prison, then
  we save ?PR offenses per year
• the net observed offenses per year is
• OF ?N - ?PR ?(N -ADS)

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Serious Offenders, N
Prisoners, PR
Population
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Serious Offenders, N
Prisoners, PR
Population
If the Serious Offender Population grows faster
than the Prison Population then crime gets worse
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Likelihood of Going to Prison in a Lifetime
For Newborn
1/4
1/6
1/10
1/23
Source
Prevalence of Imprisonment in the U. S.
Population, 1974-01
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Social Control
Population
In
Formerly In 10
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Social Control of Citizenry

• Civil law and authority
• First line of defense moral compliance and good
  citizenship
• Second line of defense deterrence (the threat of
  punishment)
• Third line of defense detention
• Martial law and authority
• Fourth line of defense National Guard and the
  Army

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100
Percent Control
Riot
99
98
Martial Law
Civil Law
Moral Compliance
Deterrence
Detention
National Guard
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Is Criminal Justice Just?
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Questions About Crime

• Are there Inequities by Income class?
• for victims?
• Are there ethnic or racial injustices?
• for victims?
• for offenders?

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US Family Income, 1994
Source US Statistical Abstract
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Why is Income Distributed So Unevenly?

• Labor Income is Unevenly Distributed
• Part-time work
• less than 50 weeks per year
• less than 36 hours per week

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Victimization Rates by Income Class
Source Report to the Nation on Crime and
Justice, Second edition
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Census Tracts in Towns in the Boston Area
Housing Value
Crime
Zoned for Lots gt 25,000 Sq. Ft.
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Public Goods and Private Goods

• Private Goods
• consumption uses them up
• what you eat is not available to nourish others
• Public Goods
• consumption does not use them up
• national defense
• safe streets
• educated citizenry

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How Much Government Should There Be?
What is the right mix of public goods and private
goods?
Private Goods
Too Few Public Goods
Optimal Mix
Slope of the Production PossibilityFrontier Marg
inal Cost of Public Goods Marginal Cost of
Private Goods
Public?Goods
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The Family and Delinquency
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The Family and Delinquency

• What is the role of the family in causing or
  preventing delinquency?
• How important is the family in considering
  possible causes of delinquency?

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Source Glenn C. Loury, Ch 1 of Families,
Schools, and Delinquency Prevention, eds.
James Q. Wilson and Glenn C. Loury
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If the father is sufficiently altruistic, then
the daughters enlightened self-interest is to
prefer point A, and she can be induced to
behave in a cooperative way, allowing point J
that leads to point A
Daughters Income
A

R
J
Fathers Income
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Where does Criminal Justice go from here?

• California
• Strong economy leads to lower property crime
  rates
• Higher imprisonment rates lead to lower rates of
  violent crime
• National Policy
• Drug treatment programs
• Eisenhower Report(1999) More Prevention

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Rearrest rates for CA prison Inmates rise to 67
within 3 years after release.