Agricultural Negotiations in the WTO: Looking Forward

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Agricultural Negotiations in the WTO Looking
Forward

• Eugenio Díaz Bonilla
• Buenos Aires, 10-11 Octubre del 2006

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Bottom Line

• To move ahead we need to answer
• what are the type of agricultural trade and
  related policies that ensure a dynamic
  agricultural sector in developing countries, as
  part of an inclusive and sustainable development
  strategy?
• The G-20 (with greater role from China) talking
  with G-33 and African countries must answer that.
  Request analytical support from multilateral
  institutions, but be prepared to do it alone, as
  necessary
• Then present deal to the developed world. If
  necessary invoke Art IX.1

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Why not the US?

• The US cannot broker a deal on development
  issues
• IPR
• Cotton
• Now saying no to LDCs market access as early
  harvest
• Impossible to receive important market access
  while maintaining high levels of subsidies.
• For developing countries it is inconceivable that
  a country with land, water, weather, farm scale,
  technology, logistics, infrastructure and
  financial markets, need subsidies

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Why not the EU?

• The EU should not broker a deal because the CAP
  and its defense is good part of the problem
• Internal story line CAP as defending a way of
  life and ending in multifunctionality
• External story line CAP a blessing for
  developing countries (Koester and Bale, 1984,
  WBSP 630)
• Terms of trade effects
• Preferences (recently EBA)
• (but what about dynamic effects in, and
  multipliers of, agriculture, i.e. IFPRI)?

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G-20
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Development Debate I

• Proteccionism and subsidies in rich countries
• Displace and block agricultural production in
  developing countries
• Lipton and Paalrberg 1990 IFPRI decline in ag
  loans from WB since late 1980s
• Excess specialization in tropical products and
  turning countries into net importers. More
  vulnerable
• Volatility in world prices
• Urban bias
• Yet in UR there were the NFIDC
• less an issue in Doha Development Round

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Development Debate II

• Multifunctionality or I-protect-and-subsidize-so-
  you-can-too. But...
• What multifunctionality? Means different things
  in rich and poor countries
• Whose multifunctionality? Your
  multifunctionality is killing my
  multifunctionality...
• Preferences a serious conceptual issue that
  appears less so quantitatively and can be
  addressed without maintaining protection

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Development Debate II

• Protection good or bad for poverty and food
  security?
• Conceptually privatized implicit tax collected
  mostly by large farmers and affecting low income
  families more
• Focus family survival strategies or livelihood
  strategies... Crops not necessarily the best
  proxy (although sometimes may help...)
• Investment, technology, transition costs, and
  safety nets (A4T) with reasonable tariff margin
  and sensible SSG for developing countries (T)
• Special products approached with great care it
  paves the way for closing market access with
  sensitive products (even 1)

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Bottom Line

• To move ahead we need to answer
• what are the type of agricultural trade and
  related policies that ensure a dynamic
  agricultural sector in developing countries, as
  part of an inclusive and sustainable development
  strategy?
• The G-20 (with greater role from China) talking
  with G-33 and African countries must answer that.
  Request analytical support from multilateral
  institutions, but be prepared to do it alone if
  necessary
• Then present deal to the developed world. If
  necessary invoke Art IX.1

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• THANKS.