Keeping Current FAD Programs from Eradicating Farm Communities

1
Keeping Current FAD Programs from Eradicating
Farm Communities
Barrett D. Slenning MS, DVM, MPVM Animal
Biosecurity Risk Management Group
Population Health Pathobiology Dept
College of Vet Med, NC State
Univ, Raleigh, NC Agriculture Disaster Research
Institute Research
Triangle Inst., Research Triangle Park, NC
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FAD PREPAREDNESS/RESPONSE

• Lessons Learned
• UK Taiwan
• Current Western FMD Response Plans
• Pros and Cons
• Biomed/technological Opportunities
• Changing Tools, Changing Methods
• A New View
• Changing Course

3
Lessons Learned... UK 2001

• Seven mos from Feb through Sept 2001
• Most Cases Occurred in 1st 2 mo /-
• Stamping Out policy
• No Vaccn

4
Lessons Learned... Maybe.

• UK 2001 FMD effort hindered by
• Cuts in monitoring surveillance capacity
• Inadequate of trained responders (esp vets)
• Slow initial response
• Static tactics in face of evolving situation
• Public revulsion at wasteful Stamping Out
  policies

5
Lessons Learned... FMDs Longterm Impact on UK

• The 2001 FMD outbreak has taken a toll on UK
  animal ag
• In six years (97-03) --
• BEEF (? 17),
• DAIRY (? 27),
• SWINE (? 45),
• POULTRY bucked the trend (? 11).
• Crops ag is down avg 21 for comparison
• Stamping out got rid of FMD, but at what price?

6
Lessons Learned... Taiwan FMD 3 yrs out
(2000-2002)

• 188 M 49.5
• 14 M 3.6
• 25 M 6.5
• 28 M 7.4
• 125 M 33.0
• 380 M
• 3,650 M

• Indemnity for Pigs destroyed
• Cost of Vaccine
• Carcass Disposal
• 80 burial, 15 rendered, 5 burned
• Miscellaneous
• Administration, supplies, etc.
• Loss of Market Value
• By 2000, swine industry down 37
  Taiwan is NET pork IMPORTER
• Total Direct Costs
• Total Indirect Costs (jobs, tourism, etc)
• Taiwans GDP down 2

USDA/ERS 2000 U Minn Center for Inf Dis Res
Policy 2002 Austral Natl Farmer Fed 2002
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FAD PREPAREDNESS/RESPONSE

• Lessons Learned
• UK Taiwan
• Current Western FMD Response Plans
• Pros and Cons
• Biomed/technological Opportunities
• Changing Tools, Changing Methods
• A New View
• Changing Course

8
Standard Western Decision Tree for FMD Response
Typical Decision Tree for FMD Response in a
Non-endemic Country
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Current Plan A Stamping Out

• Euthanize the infected herds and dangerous
  contacts
• (Pre-emptive cull policy)
• The ideal system for containable disease
  outbreak situations
• Testing, clinical signs, animal control,
  personnel need to be right

10
Plan A Stamping Out Pro

• Goal fast eradication, so international trade
  damage is minimized
• Clear methods and end points, makes biological
  sense (esp w/ FMD),
• Has a strong track record of success through the
  20th century
• International trade rules favor Stamping Out
  policies vs others

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Plan A Stamping Out Con

• Goal fast eradication, so international trade
  damage is minimized
• But for US Animal Ag, exports are only about 10
  of the market!
• Domestic use 90 of market
• Why let the tail wag the dog in disease
  programs?
• Why not focus on ensuring domestic market
  survival?

12
Plan A Stamping Out Con

• Method requires rapid euthanasia/disposal and
  long-term stop movement orders to prevent spread
• Carries unintended consequences
• High levels of welfare destruction
• Loss of market damages uninfected farms
  even if response is quick enough

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Plan A Stamping Out Con
Days to 0 Annual Returns-to-Management by Milk
Production Cost Increases

• Healthy farms are hurt by Stop Movement Rules
• Typical NC Dairy (lt18K 305 FCM) can survive
• lt13 days, IF no added costs
• If FAD program changes costs/income by 3-4,
  dairy has NO resilience
• Annual net goes to zero.
• Higher producing farms last longer, but show same
  trend
• Program selects against an industry segment

Cost Increase via Program
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Plan A Stamping Out Summary

• Relatively easy to understand and monitor
• Widely recognized as historically effective
• Risks the majority for the minority
• Sweeps up/destroys many uninfected herds
• Penalizes those who stay negative
• Public revulsion is high

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Plan B Ring Vaccination -- Pro

• Also known as reactive or
  fence vaccination
• Emergency effort to limit spread
• Biological fire break around
  infected premises by vaccinating
  surrounding farms.
• Most rules include programmed culling (Vaccinate
  to Cull Vaccinate to Kill) of vaccinates to
  speed international trade return
• Theory is that Ring Vaccination --
• Should decrease infected farms/culls
• Direct costs could go up or down

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Plan B Ring Vaccination -- Con

• Logistics is a huge issue
• Could take weeks to get quantities of FMD vaccine
  on site
• At best, get 90-95 effectiveness
• Time lag to protection varies 3-7 days
• Allows carrier states
• No effect on already infected animals
• Need coordination for right vaccine, in right
  amounts, to right animals, ASAP

• Outcomes/Results are equivocal
• Used in the successful FMD response programs in
  France and Netherlands (2001)
• Used in unsuccessful FMD response programs in
  Saudia Arabia (1980s-1990s), Taiwan (1997),
  Uruguay and Argentina (2001)

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Plan B Ring Vaccination -- Con

• Logistics Bigger ring means better control.
• Bigger ring also greatly increases needed
  resources/time constraints.
• Still may not get ahead of epidemic

50 likelihood of spreading faster than
DEFAULT 23 likelihood of spreading faster than
PROPOSED
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North Carolina Live Animal Shipments
Live animals are shipped to a total of 27
states, Puerto Rico, Mexico, Canada and South
America!
Simulations say a NC FMD outbreak could hit 5-7
states, affecting /- 500 herds, in 10 days How
many vaccination rings are needed now?
Swine
Goats
Sheep Lambs

• 8 M Total livestock leave state each year (Not
  counting poultry)
• 2 M Feeder Pigs
• 3 M Finishing Hogs
• 3 M Feeder Calves and Stockers
• 22 K livestock leave state each day!

Poultry
Puerto Rico
Beef Cattle
Dairy Cattle
NCDACS / Emergency Programs
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International Thinking... OIE
Vaccine Rules as of 2003

• Stamping Out alone takes 3 mo to gain Free
  status
• Vacc to Kill has no penalty
• Vacc to Live penalty is now 3 mo vs 9 mo

From OIE. Terrestrial Animal Health Code
(2004), Chpt 2.2.10 Foot and Mouth Disease.
www.oie.int/eng/normes/mcode/en_chapitre_2.2.10.ht
m
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Plan B Ring Vaccination -- Summary

• Aims to provide a firebreak to
  limit viral replication/spread
• Has an ambivalent history of effectiveness
  results
• Carries immense logistical problems
• Proper vaccine readily available
• Proper training is up to date
• Proper equipment is at hand and ready to go
• Proper timing is possible and feasible
• Multi-site outbreaks will exacerbate all of the
  above

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FAD PREPAREDNESS/RESPONSE

• Lessons Learned
• UK Taiwan
• Current Western FMD Response Plans
• Pros and Cons
• Biomed/technological Opportunities
• Changing Tools, Changing Methods
• A New View
• Changing Course

22
Changing Tools... Biotechnology

• Vaccine types/delivery systems
• Gene-delete, synthetic peptide, viral vectored
  DNA, MLV, DNA-encoding capsids, adeno-vectored
  capsids, RNA replicon particles... ...
• Delivery via feed, aerosols, vectors
• Single vs multiple dose
• Can overcome many problems with current vaccines
• Immunomodulation w/ or w/o vaccines
• Direct oral mucosal interferon (IFN) delivery can
  be effective/fast antiviral therapy (incl FMD)
  w/o vaccine
• Can decrease _at_ risk time post-vacc
• Option for use in feed
• Cell-mediated vs humoral immunity tactics?

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Changing Tools... Vaccine
Strategies

• Strategy Options
• None (current stance in most FMD-free countries)
• Vaccinate to Kill/Live
• Predictive Emergency Vaccination (all vs
  risk-based)
• Pre-emptive vaccination (all vs risk-based)
• Choice depends on multiple factors of the
  specific epidemic, as well as
• Vaccine efficacy
• Vaccine availability time line
• Differentiation from street virus infecteds
• Other resource/logistical limitations

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Changing Methods... Modeling Vaccination
Strategies for UK 2001

• Model of UK 2001 FMD outbreak with different
  vaccination strategies
• Vacc at random
• Vacc largest farms
• Vacc big farms _at_ hi risk
• Cull IPs/CPs (2001 tactic)
• Allows BenefitCost analyses of strategies
  pros/cons
• Focusing on Production Centers (i.e., Big Farms
  _at_ Hi Risk) achieves
• fewer resources
• better outcomes

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Changing Tools...
Differentiable Animal-Side Tests

• Materials science, biochem, nanotech,
  pattern-recognition, spectroscopy, computerized
  molecular-level imaging systems combine to --
• Optimize approaches to rapid, high-resolution,
  accurate, and efficient diagnostic methods
• Oligonucleotide microarrays, aptamer techs,
  nanotube biosensors, etc.
• Environmentally stable tools are in use by public
  safety and military now. Why not us?

... the active review and implementation of
advancing technologies has been inadequate to
protect and enhance the health of the country's
animal populations and related economic
systems... King L, et al. National Research
Council Executive Summary - Animal Health at the
Crossroads Preventing, Detecting, and
Diagnosing Animal Diseases. July 2005. p
6 http//darwin.nap.edu/execsumm_pdf/11365.pdf
Suitcase Mass Spec DNA Chip from Tabatabai
LB. IVD Technology magazine. Jul-Aug 2005
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Changing Tools... Information
Technology

• Gadget GPS wireless laptop/palm pilot
• Infrastructure National animal ID systems
• Info Shared multi- hazard data structures
• New trace-in/out methods,
• Monitoring animal flow,
• Syndromic surveillance
• Overlay roads, rivers, water tables, boundaries,
  wind, etc.
• Network aware activities and coordination (full
  battlefield awareness)

LIVESTOCK FARMS AND TYPES RELATIVE TO DIFFERENT
CONTROL ZONE DIAMETERS SURROUNDING SUSPECT FARM
IN DUPLIN COUNTY, NORTH CAROLINA
Suspect Premises Dairy Farm Swine Farm Poultry
Farm 6 Mile Zone 15 Mile Zone 20 Mile Zone
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FAD PREPAREDNESS/RESPONSE

• Lessons Learned
• UK Taiwan
• Current Western FMD Response Plans
• Pros and Cons
• Biomed/technological Opportunities
• Changing Tools, Changing Methods
• A New View
• Changing Course

28
A New View...

• New Goal Business Continuity is Priority
• Manage FADs 1st eradicate 2nd, minimal
  destruction
• New Method 1 Biosecurity Incentives
• Getting people to do the right thing
• New Method 2 Prodn Center Focus
• Facilitate biosecurity, possible preventive
  vaccn
• New Method 3 Non-vaccine Immunomodn
• Harden herds w/o increasing demands on limited
  specialized personnel
• New Method 4 Minimize Stop Movement
• Proof-of-Status-Testing and Permiting
• Differentiable vaccine with varied strategies

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New Goal... Manage FADs to Prioritize Business
Continuity

• Measure of Success May Not Be How Fast We
  Eradicate an FAD or How Many Animals are
  Destroyed, but --
• of farms surviving the initial program
• of farms surviving X years later
• of domestic demand met by domestic supply
• Methods Focus on Facilitating Production and
  Marketing
• Maintain domestic markets (consumer educn)
• Pre-Outbreak biosecurity carries benefits to
  producer (insurance, loans, ???)
• Others...

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New Method 1... Farm Biosecurity Incentives
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New Method 1... Farm Biosecurity Incentives

• Incentivise farmers to use biosecurity
• Insurance, Bonds, Hedging, Lending, Legal, Taxes,
  etc.
• Incentives acceptance better than regulation
• Markets determine values and priorities of
  practices

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New View 2...Production Center Concept
Production Centers are Targets, and Identifiable
Risk Entities
Legend Poultry Farm Swine Farm
State Prop.
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New View 2...Production Center Concept
Location of Production Center FAD Resource
Centers (Testing and Vaccine)

• Production Center ID allows for
• Forward placement of resources
• Strategic siting of labs
• Different treatment expectations from small or
  less dense areas

2/3
?
1
4
5
10
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New View 2...Production Center Concept

• Production Center ID allows for
• Forward placement of resources
• Strategic siting of labs
• Different treatment expectations from small or
  less dense areas

Adapted from Keeling, Grenfell, Woolhouse, et
al. The Foot and Mouth Outbreak Models, Risks
and Heterogeneities. Royal Society Inquiry. 2002.
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New View 3...NonVacc Immune Modulation

• Feed/Water delivered Immunomodulation
• Interferons, ???
• Buys time, lowers personnel requirement
• Pre-sited if emergency only use
• Start w/ presumptive dx
• If approved for regular use, could help harden
  herds and lower incidence of other diseases
• Food Safety Enhancer?

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New View 4...Minimize Stop Moves

• Use precedent and Lessons Learned from mid-1990s
  Pseudorabies Program
• Proof of Status testing
• Pos/Neg w/ time horizon At Farms Collection
  points
• Provides State Vets info needed to allow
  movements
• Limited Movement Permit System
• Maintains domestic production and markets
• Rewards farms for staying negative
• Avoids uninfecteds becoming innocent bystanders
• Minimizes farms intentionally going in order to
  gain indemnity as only way out
• Gives incentive for better biosecurity year
  round

37
New View 4...Minimize Stop Moves Testing

• RT-PCR / Z-chip / ??? Differential test
• Discriminate Pos/Neg/Vacc
• Train pvt DVMs to test on farm vs. satellite labs
  
• Distance is time, and time is the enemy
• Goal Test immediately prior to move to best
  ensure (-) status
• Very time sensitive
• Needs rapid permitting system

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New Views...

• New Goal Business Continuity is Priority
• Manage FADs 1st, Eradicate 2nd
• Dont let 10 of market threaten the rest
• Minimize animal/farm destruction
• New Method Prodn Center Focus
• Facilitate biosecurity, possible preventive
  vaccn
• New Method Non-vaccine Immunomodn with Feed or
  Water Delivery Systems
• Harden herds w/o increasing demands on limited
  specialized personnel
• New Method Minimize Stop Movement
• Proof-of-Status-Testing and Permiting
• Differentiable vaccine with varied strategies

39
New Views, New Plan Managed
Eradication Strategy

• Business Continuity is priority
• Save farms, save agriculture
• Regionalize
• Develop strategies based on Production Centers
• Resourced for response to occur
  locally/effectively
• Proof of Status capability for marketing
• Differential test (if poss) on farm on day of
  shipping
• Strategies proof of status info to allow
  movements
• Vaccination/Immunomodulation Strategy
• Pre-event / Predictive _at_ Production Centers?
• Strict biosecurity programs at all levels
• Reward biosecurity through incentives

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New Goal... Probs w/ typical DecTree for FMD
Response

• First question is --
• not useful
• We can almost always eradicate by stamping out.
• But is it feasible?

• 2. wrongly aimed
• Eradication is not a goal
• Saving agriculture is a goal

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New Goal... Decide if 1 SO Only, or 2 SO
Vacc are Preferred
RB RiskBenefit Model / Analysis
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FAD PREPAREDNESS/RESPONSE

• Lessons Learned
• UK Taiwan
• Current Western FMD Response Plans
• Pros and Cons
• Biomed/technological Opportunities
• Changing Tools, Changing Methods
• A New View
• Changing Course

43
Keeping Current FAD Programs from Eradicating
Farm Communities
Barrett D. Slenning MS, DVM, MPVM Animal
Biosecurity Risk Management Group
Population Health Pathobiology Dept
College of Vet Med, NC State
Univ, Raleigh, NC Agriculture Disaster Research
Institute Research
Triangle Inst., Research Triangle Park,
NC barrett_slenning_at_ncsu.edu
44
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• Preliminary data suggest both real (inflation
  adjusted) choice and all fresh beef prices
  declined by nearly 5 during this time period
  (based on retail prices for January and
  February). Retail prices for the first two
  months of the year were also down for pork (1.7)
  and broilers (6.3) while per capita consumption
  of the competing meats each increased about 1.
• Decreases in foreign demand for poultry due to
  Avian Influenza likely has resulted in more
  domestic broiler meat supplies, thereby
  depressing broiler prices and providing more
  stiff competition for red meats in the retail
  case.