Seamless Prediction Paradigm

1
Seamless Prediction Paradigm

• Benefits, Challenges Questions
• from Expert Users Perspective
• Lee Branscome
• Climatological Consulting Corporation

2
Scientific Marriage of Weather Climate

• Potential Advances in
• Understanding modeling of scale interactions
• Connection between weather climate observations
• Extreme high impact events in climate
  projections
• Regional climate change of means variances
• Better medium-range to seasonal predictions
• Increased confidence in climate projections
• Socioeconomic environmental relevance on all
  scales

3
Scientific Limitations Challenges

• Limits on predictability knowledge on all
  scales
• DONT OVERPROMISE
• - e.g., missteps in Florida water resource
  management for 2006-2007
• Still limited to scenario-based climate
  projections, not predictions
• Modeling verification of upscale interactions
  will require many intensive observational
  programs
• Constraint on verification of processes
  predictions of decadal scales
• Need to develop assimilate new sensor
  technology
• Complexity of modeling - still need to do
  small-chunk modeling

4
Practical Challenges

• Overcome competition between weather climate
  goals resources
• Massive computational storage resources needed
• Coordinating collaborative effort of diverse
  sciences interests
• Lack of funding personnel at all levels
• Engagement of users in identification
  development of useful products

5
Questions

• What are most immediate scientific roadblocks?
  What resources are needed to overcome them?
• What must done to make massive Earth System
  Models understandable, manageable, verifiable?
  
• If NOAA takes lead, is reorganization needed?
  Would a separate Natl. Climate Service help or
  hurt this effort?
• How should tasks resources be divided among
  international, public, private partners?
• How can users be most effectively engaged in this
  effort?