Issues of Climate Observing for Impacts

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Issues of Climate Observing for Impacts
William E. Easterling
The Pennsylvania State University
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General points on the draft report

• Choice of essential surface climate variables is
  adequate for most biological and hydrological
  modeling
• Terrestrial variables ok to zero order, but there
  are gaps, for example
• Frost-free season/growing season
• Soil temperature and moisture
• Monsoon onset or rainy season onset in Tropical
  Wet/Dry
• Ice-out dates on lakes and rivers
• Stop separating interannual climate variability
  from long-term climate change

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General points on the draft report

• Goals 4 (prediction), 5 (downscaling), and 6
  (extremes) have most bearing on impact community
• Interannual prediction has more skill and thus
  more potential utility to adpatation at present
  than long-term prediction

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Midwestern U.S. farmers
Source Sonka, et al. 2001
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• Comparison of Three Drought Cases in NE Brazil
• 1987 (no action taken according to climate
  forecast)
• 1992 (full action taken according to forecast
  monitoring)
• 1993 (full action taken according to forecast
  monitoring)
• Year Precipitation Grain
  Production Grain Production
• ( of mean) (in
  metric tons) ( of mean)
• 
  
• 1987 70
  100,000 15
• 1992 73
  530,000 82
• 1993 60
  400,000 62

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General points on the draft report

• Goals 4 (prediction), 5 (downscaling), and 6
  (extremes) have most bearing on impact community
• Interannual prediction has more skill and thus
  more potential utility to adpatation at present
  than long-term prediction
• Little knowledge of forecast needs of potential
  users
• Need to incorporate downscaling into seasonal to
  interannual predictions (not just long-term GCM
  experiments)
• Importance of historical observations for impact
  analysis

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General points on the draft report

• Goals 4 (prediction), 5 (downscaling), and 6
  (extremes) have most bearing on impact community
• Interannual prediction has more skill and thus
  more potential utility to adpatation at present
  than long-term prediction
• Little knowledge of forecast needs of potential
  users
• Need to incorporate downscaling into seasonal to
  interannual predictions (not just long-term GCM
  experiments)
• Importance of historical observations for impact
  analysis
• Networks focus on regions that matter!
• Broaden concept of ecosystem networks to include
• major agricultural production zones
• Major watersheds/river basins
• Vulnerable zones (low-lying coastal areas,
  floodplains, ecotones)
• Might focus observing on ecologically or socially
  vulnerable regions?

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Heim et al, in press
Heim et al, in press
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General points on the draft report

• Goals 4 (prediction), 5 (downscaling), and 6
  (extremes) have most bearing on impact community
• Interannual prediction has more skill and thus
  more potential utility to adpatation at present
  than long-term prediction
• Little knowledge of forecast needs of potential
  users
• Need to incorporate downscaling into seasonal to
  interannual predictions (not just long-term GCM
  experiments)
• Importance of historical observations for impact
  analysis
• Networks focus on regions that matter!
• Broaden concept of ecosystem networks to include
• major agricultural production zones
• Major watersheds/river basins
• Vulnerable zones (low-lying coastal areas,
  floodplains, ecotones)
• Might focus observing on ecologically or socially
  vulnerable regions?
• Leading Climate Indicators of Impacts Another
  way of looking at integrated climate products

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Indexes of Leading Climate Indicators of Impacts
Leading indicators are historical-to-date
integrations of climate data tailored to gage
impacts (Easterling and Kates, 1995).
Leading indicators vary depending on the class
of climate impact problems.
Classes of Climate Impact Problems

• - Occurrence of climate extremes
• Anticipation/detection of greenhouse warming
• Development of hazard warning capabilities
• Assessment of climate effects on ecosystem
  health
• involvement of climate in demand for energy and
  quality/quality of renewable natural resources.

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Examples of Existing Climate Indexes
Index of Greenhouse Climate Response (GCRI)
(Karl et al., 1995)
Is derived as a percent of the U.S. with an
arithmetic average of the following five
indicators - Above normal mean temperature
- Above normal precipitation during cold
season (Oct.-April) - Extreme or severe
drought during warm season (May-Sept.) -
Greater than normal proportion of precipitation
derived from extreme 1-day events (exceeding
50.8 mm per day). - Below normal day-to-day
temperature differences.

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Examples of Existing Climate Indexes
Moisture Stress Index (MSI) (Heim et al., 2003)

• Measures effect of drought and catastrophic
  wetness on corn and soybean yields and is
  calculated through the use of Palmer Z index
  reference and annual ten-year average crop
  productivity weights.

- Is based on the effect of severe drought
(Palmer Z index ?2) or catastrophic wetness (Z
? 5) on crop yields.
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