Chinas Fifth Generation Air Combat Ambitions: A Preliminary Assessment

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Chinas Fifth Generation Air Combat Ambitions A
Preliminary Assessment

• By Richard D. Fisher, Jr.
• Senior Fellow, International Assessment and
  Strategy Center
• September 14, 2009

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Summary

• Secretary Gates bold July 16 prediction that
  China will have no 5th generation fighters by
  2020 updates Office of Naval Intelligence
  estimate of 1997 that it will enter service in
  2015. China calls them 4th generation.
• PLA opsec regarding its 5th gen ambitions is very
  good grey data, speculation and disinformation
  abound. What is known
• The Shenyang and Chengdu Aircraft Corporations
  have 5th gen programs.
• There may be a medium weight 5th gen combat
  aircraft program as well.
• One objective 15-ton turbofan engine program
  exists, and one more may be coming.
• China has had a longstanding interest in stealth
  and advanced aircraft systems.
• Next gen AAMs are on the way.
• Spinoffs may already be enabling 4 gen fighter
  programs.
• Consideration of broader China threat to U.S.
  forces in Asia ASATs SSMs ASBMs LACMs
  SSN/SSKs ABN Spec Ops

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• Previous Assessments of Advanced PLA Fighter
• 1997 Office of Naval Intelligence (ONI) offers
  assessment This aircraft XXJ is expected to
  be a large multi-role fighter with an emphasis on
  air combat and reduced signature design. The
  aircraft should enter service with both the air
  force and the navy around 2015.
• July 2009 Secretary of Defense Robert Gates
  for the U.S. Air Force in 2020,nearly 1,100
  combat aircraft will be the most advanced fifth
  generation F-35s and F-22s. China, by contrast,
  is projected to have no fifth generation aircraft
  by 2020. And by 2025, the gap only widens. The
  U.S. will have approximately 1,700 of the most
  advanced fifth generation fighters versus a
  handful of comparable aircraft for the Chinese.
• August 2009 At MAKS airshow, Sukhoi official
  estimates that China may only have prototype 5th
  generation fighters by 2020.

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• Grounds for skepticism ?
• 2002 DoD PLA Report, page 20 While continuing
  to research and discuss possibilities, China
  appears to have set aside indefinitely plans to
  acquire an aircraft carrier.
• No mention of PLA 5th Generation program in DoD
  PLA Reports.
• Russian underestimation of Chinas ability to
  absorb and modify their technology.

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PLA Rules Very little transparency regarding
its 5th gen programs. Many interesting grey
data points but also generous mis/disinformation.

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Few Details, Large Ambition

• In one of the few, if perhaps the only public
  statement by a PLA officer on their 5th
  generation program, during the April 2009 PLA
  Navy Anniversary celebrations, PLA Navy commander
  Admiral Wu Shengli states the PLANs requirement
  for a fighter capable of supersonic cruise. We
  can safely presume requirements for stealth, high
  maneuver, advanced radar/weapons
• Previous analysis that China after seeking
  considerable foreign technology to accelerate its
  4th generation (3rd in Chinese) combat aircraft
  programs, it hopes to use its 5th generation
  program to achieve essential self sufficiency in
  high technologies. Russia apparently is not
  engaged in Chinas 5th gen program.
• China is attempting steep and ambitious goals.
  It is essentially seeking to go from a 3rd
  generation to a 5th generation air combat fighter
  capability within 30 years, starting from the
  decision to accelerate all military building
  following the Tiananmen Massacre. Furthermore,
  the PLAAF seeking to transform elsewhere BVR
  combat, AWACS and EW, advanced SAM to space
  warfare, new long-range transports. Thats just
  hardware, then there is the software.
• China has faced well known difficulties in
  fielding the Chengdus J-10 and Shenyangs J-11.
  But with the help of increasing design
  competence, practice, better CAD-CAM programs, it
  has been able to more rapidly develop new
  versions of both fighter families.
• Can Shenyang and Chengdu accumulate their lessons
  and apply them to breakthroughs necessary to
  advance to the 5th generation? Perhaps faster
  in airframes than engines and other systems?
  Might this program run longer than ten years to
  get to the field? But one should not
  underestimate Chinas determination and
  willingness to devote resources.

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Shenyang Aircraft Co.

• Usually associated with conventional designs.
• Can benefit directly and indirectly from active
  Russian connection.

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Chengdu Aircraft Co.

• Known interest in advanced canard designs.
• Known work with Russian design expertise.

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Possible Medium Weight 5th Gen Program ?

• Early 2005 disclosure by a Chinese source that
  Chengdu Aircraft Co. was considering a F-35
  class program. Source declined to go into
  details. But at the 2006 Zhuhai show, Shenyang
  displays a concept for an apparent medium weight
  stealthy, high-maneuverability fighter. Might
  there be an ongoing PLA program for a
  multi-service, medium weight 5th gen fighter?

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Shenyangs 15-ton afterburning turbofan program

• The 606 Aeroengine Research Institute has been a
  leading organ in the development of the 12-to-13
  ton thrust Taihang turbofan. 606 is also
  believed to be developing a more powerful 15-ton
  thrust derivative of the Taihang. One Chinese
  source notes the goals for this engine is 15.5
  tons of thrust and a 9.5 thrust-to-weight ratio.
  However the Taihang has long been facing
  developmental challenges, and the status of the
  new engine is not known.

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Fifth Gen Engine 2 Via the Ukraine ?

• From MAKS 09 A potential tie up between Motor
  Sich and Chinese concerns to develop a 15-ton
  thrust engine, all of which would follow Chinese
  co-production of the AI-222-25 for the L-15
  trainer, then a large-bypass turbofan joint
  program, and then and then a 15-ton engine based
  on the yet-to-be-developed AI-9500F.
• Chinese source indicates this program will be led
  on the Chinese side by the 608 Aeroengine
  Institute, which is associated with the Chengdu
  Aircraft Corporation.

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Advanced Systems
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New AAMs

• Known program by Luoyang to develop new
  all-aspect short-range AAM, with possible help
  from South Africas A-Darter program.
• Possible PLA development of a ramjet powered AAM,
  with South African or Russian technology inputs.
• Longer range variants of the Luoyang PL-12/SD-10.
• Curious small apparently radar guided AAM.
• Future Russian AAM options long range
  R-73/R-77/new 5th gen AAMs..

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4 Generation Programs
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Air power developments only one worry