Combating Terrorism: Intelligence Preparation for Operations

1
Combating TerrorismIntelligence Preparation for
Operations

• Matt Begert
• begert_at_law-west.org
• 888-548-1618

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Overview

• The Challenge of Post-Modern World Conflict
• Intelligence Preparation for Operations
• What
• Why
• Value
• Summary, Conclusions and Questions

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Preparing for 4th Generation War

• This is the Post-Modern World
• Post-Modern Thinking Blurring of Crime and War
• Requirements for Combating Terrorism
• Offense
• Defense
• Intelligence Preparation for Operations
• Technology Adaptation

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Intelligence Preparation for Operations

• Use the Acronym IPO
• This is Not Intelligence Preparation of the
  Battlefield (Classic Military Definition)
• Basis for the Description of IPO
• Two Concepts of War
• Entrepreneurial Theory of Operations
• Straightforward Method of Decision-Making

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Concepts of War and Conflict

• Clausewitz
• War is the continuation of policy by other
  means.
• Classic Modern Definition and Understanding
• Three Levels of Activity
• Tactical
• Operational
• Strategic

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Concepts of War and Conflict

• Sun Tzu The Art of War
• 2000 years old
• Enduring Concepts
• Win without fighting
• Importance of Terrain
• Importance of Intelligence and Spies
• We Tend to Term it Unconventional.

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Entrepreneurial Operations

• Modern Organization is Hierarchical
• Governmental Institutions Built on Hierarchies
• Post WWII Big Business Model
• Stovepipes, Rice Bowls, Information Hoarding
• Post-Modern Organization is Networked
• Faster
• Collaborative
• Less Restrictive

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Decision Making

• OODA Loop
• ObservegtgtgtOrientgtgtgtDecidegtgtgtAct
• Colonel John Boyd, USAF
• 40-Second Boyd
• Derived from Aerial Combat
• Used to Develop the F-15 and F-16
• Easily Described but Actually Complex

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IPO for Post-Modern Conflict

• Concept of Readiness
• Preparation of the Operational Area
• Generally Disregard Political Boundaries
• Observation and Assessment
• Recognize Excursions from Normal Activity
• There are Two Types of Intelligence!!!
• Analysis
• Identify Indicators and Warnings
• Course of Action (COA) Development

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Preparation of Op Area

• METTT Classic Military Approach
• IPO is More Complex
• Terrain
• Urban, Population Density and Activity, Vertical
  Development, Internal Volume, Microclimates,
  Social, Political and Media Influence
• Enemy
• Asymmetrical, Leverages Stealth and Surprise,
  Unrestricted by Social/Legal Constraints

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Op Area Prep

• Our Objectives
• Do Not Engage Force-on-Force
• Mitigate OPFOR Advantage of Stealth and Surprise
• Dissuade Through Certainty of OPFOR Failure
• If Not, Interrupt and Deny Enemy Intent
• Any Spoiling of Intent is a Success
• Define and Implement Active Defense

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Tenets of An Active Defense

• Know the Terrain
• Know the Enemy
• Employ Operational Art
• Create An Operational Network
• Multifunctional/Multidisciplinary
• Rehearsal (Playbooks and Target Folders)
• Thereby Speed OODA Loop

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Why IPO?

• Match Asymmetry with Asymmetry
• Force-on-Force Wont Happen
• Network vs Network
• Eliminate Constraints of Hierarchy/Political
  Boundary
• Make the OODA Loop Competitive in Speed
• Combine Intel/Criminal Intel
• Proficiency of Operational Art

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Value of IPO

• Capability to Identify Enemy Intent
• Deny Stealth
• Deny Surprise
• Gain/Maintain the Advantage
• Rehearsal
• Intel Analysis
• Advanced Operational Concepts
• Derive Advanced Enabling Technologies

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Summary and Conclusions

• Nation-State Use of Force Model in Decline
• Dominant since Peace of Westphalia, 1648
• The Threat is Asymmetric
• Force-on-Force Model in Post-Modern World Does
  Not Work
• NetworksAsymmetryActive DefenseForce
  Multipliers for the Post-Modern World

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References

• Non-State Threats and Future Wars, Dr. Robert J.
  Bunker, editor, Frank Cass Company, Ltd., 2003,
  London, Part 3, Counter Op-For Strategies,
  Begert, Matt and Lindsay, Dan, Intelligence
  Preparations for Operations, ISBN 07146 8308
• A Discourse on Winning and Losing, Boyd, Colonel
  John
• The Art of War, Tzu, Sun, Cleary, Thomas,
  translator, 1988, Shambhala Publications, Boston
• On War, Clausewitz, Carl Von, Howard, Michael and
  Paret, Peter, editors, 1976, Princeton University
  Press
• POC Matt Begert begert_at_law-west.org
  888-548-1618