QER SMT Scenario Planning Workshop

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QER SMT Scenario Planning Workshop

• by Professor Ron Johnston
• 28 April 2009
• Brisbane

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QER faces a future marked by uncertainty,
complexity and change

• Structure of the global economy
• Extent and impact of potential climate change
• Range of responses to growing oil scarcity
• New technologies with high impact on supply and
  demand for energy
• Conflict between economic and environmental
  values
• State, national and international legislation and
  policies

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Foresight

• Assisting organisations to think systematically
  about the future so they can develop robust
  strategies for it by
• Understanding what types of futures might be
  possible
• Challenging presumptions
• Building greater resilience into strategy

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Differentiating Foresight

• Action-oriented vs. contemplative (passive)
• Participatory vs. non-participatory
• Alternative futures vs. a single future state
• Probable, possible and preferred futures

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Basic types of dialogue in a Foresight exercise
Structured stakeholder dialogue
Diagnosis
Prognosis
Prescription
Debating what we would like to happen Deciding
what should be done
Understanding where we are
Exploring what could happen
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Scenario Planning

• Avoids the incrementalism of traditional
  planning

Where can we be next year?
GOAL
GOAL
What should we do today?
And the next?
Where we
Where we
are now
are now
Versus
TIME
TIME
Anticipating
Incrementalism
Scenario Planning
Annual Planning
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Avoiding Limitations
Instead of
Most LikelyFuture
Today
MasterPlan
AlternativeFutures
We will
CoreStrategies
Today
A set of core strategies, but not a single
grand strategy
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Developing Future Scenarios
Key Global Affairs Mission Drivers
Derive Key Forces For Change (Dimensions)
Outside Direct Control
The Planning Space
Energy Economy Education Trade Regional
Conflict Technology Demographics Health
Disease Fiscal Health Ethics
Set the Boundary Conditions of the Planning Space
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Evergreen II Scenarios
Future Operating Environments
Optimal USCG Strategies
Immersion in Future Worlds
Profits Principles
Congagement
Asian Way
Lockdown
Be Careful What You Wish For
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Scenario Planning

• A scenario is a story illustrating visions of
  possible future or aspects of possible future..
  Scenarios are not predictions about the future
  but rather simulations of some possible futures.
  They are used both as an exploratory method or a
  tool for decision-making, mainly to highlight the
  discontinuities from the present and to reveal
  the choices available and their potential
  consequences

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Elements of Scenario Planning

• Identify the focal issue
• Identification and analysis of the drivers
• Rank by importance and uncertainty
• Selecting scenario parameters
• Writing the scenarios
• Back-casting to identify key interventions

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Economic Drivers

• Resumed economic growth
• High energy demand from China, India
• Strong drive for alternate fuels
• Commodity prices soar again
• Truncated economic growth
• High oil prices constrain economic recovery
• Capital availability limited

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Environmental Drivers

• Strong environmental pressures
• High range climate change
• Copenhagen sets tough ETS requirements targets
  to decarbonise economies
• Major investment in climate change
• Moderate environmental pressures
• Low range climate change
• Increasing doubt about greenhouse science
• Priority to create jobs

High range climate change
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Technological Drivers

• Major advances in supply technology
• Efficiency of oil extraction doubled through
  application of biological agents
• Electric car production soars based on new
  battery technology
• Major advances in demand technology
• Energy management industry booming with new
  products and services
• High efficiency cars dominate global production

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Political Drivers

• Market based approaches
• High level of taxation on road use
• Private sector investment drives alternate fuel
  development
• Interventionist approaches
• Major government investment in alternate fuel
  development
• Governments strongly influenced by environmental
  pressures

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Social/Values Drivers

• Values dominated by environmental concerns
• Hydrocarbon anathema
• Large decrease in transport of goods
• Values dominated by economic concerns
• Environmental extremism rejected in favour of
  jobs and community well-being

alternate fuels