Implied probability

1
DECEMBER MEETING OUTCOMES
WITH JAN. OPTIONS
Implied probability
Employment situation, (M3) Manufacturing report
Personal income, ISM Manufacturing Index
FOMC action/statement, GDP (Advance 2007Q3),
Construction spending, Employment Cost Index
4.25
4.50
4.75
4.00
5.00
2
DECEMBER MEETING OUTCOMES
WITH DEC. OPTIONS
Implied probability
Employment situation, (M3) Manufacturing report
Personal income, ISM Manufacturing Index
FOMC action/statement, GDP (Advance 2007Q3),
Construction spending, Employment Cost Index
4.25
4.75
4.50
4.00
5.00
Note Use both November and December options
prior to October 31
3
JANUARY MEETING OUTCOMES
Implied probability
Employment situation, (M3) Manufacturing report
4.00
4.50
4.25
4.75
4
RECENT IMPLIED PROBABILITIES
5
DECEMBER MEETING OUTCOMES
WITH JAN. OPTIONS
Implied probability
4.25
4.50
4.00
4.75
6
DECEMBER MEETING OUTCOMES
WITH JAN. OPTIONS
Implied probability
4.25
4.50
4.00
4.75
Note Has small correction for January meeting
expectations impact on January options/futures
prices