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Developing Tools for Understanding and Communicating Drought

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Title: Developing Tools for Understanding and Communicating Drought


1
Developing Tools for Understanding and
Communicating Drought
Deke Arndt Associate State Climatologist Oklahoma
Climatological Survey
2
Two Things I Can Guarantee
  • This drought will end
  • There will be another drought

3
About the Oklahoma Climate Survey
  • Established 1980
  • Mandated to collect and disseminate useful
    weather and climate information
  • OCS is also the custodian of the Oklahoma Mesonet
  • For drought, we serve data and expertise to the
    Oklahoma Water Resources Board
  • The OWRB is the lead drought-monitoring agency in
    the state. They report directly to the Gov.

4
About Oklahoma
  • Response-based drought plan
  • ?
  • Monitoring is critical

5
About Drought
  • Climate information maps strongly to the
    financial services sector
  • Drought is more like baseball
  • There are a lot of numbers, statistics and
    metrics
  • It means more because I went through it with my
    Dad.

6
A Tale of Two Droughts
7
Drought 1 1935
8
Drought 2 1996
9
Lessons Drought 1
  • The power of mitigation

CD2 Annual Precip
10
Lessons Drought 2
  • We didn't speak to each other very well
  • Climatologists spent days compiling reports
  • Stuff happened slowly

11
Deke's Drought-Monitoring Principles
  • Drought is a social phenomenon
  • Drought is relative in time, space application
  • Because drought is inextricably tied to society,
    a long-term reference is necessary
  • New and emerging observational datasets should be
    explored
  • Drought is a multi-faceted issue and requires a
    multi-faceted assessment
  • Deliver drought information, not just drought data

12
Mesonet Drought Monitoring
  • Tables and graphics provide decision-makers with
    a number of data sources and choices (7 days per
    week)?
  • Designed to help non-scientists better
    assimilate complex information using past
    experiences

13
Daily Drought Monitoring
14
Daily Drought Monitoring
15
Fire Danger Model Burning Index
16
Time/Depth Scales of Soil Moisture
Fractional Water Index at 75 cm Ending 10/12/03
17
Daily Drought Monitoring
  • Basic statistics for a traditional view of
    precipitation during any season
  • Total Precipitation
  • Departure from Normal Precipitation
  • Percent of Normal Precipitation

18
Daily Drought Monitoring
  • These columns use historical archives to put
    this season's total in perspective
  • Driest Since and Wettest Since refer to
    recent history (which is more memorable)?
  • Rankings indicate how this season fits into
    history

19
Daily Drought Monitoring
Index values help specific users see the subtext
of the current episode Implications FWI
agriculture KBDI fire management SPI the
unusualness of a current event
20
Texas Early Last Week
  • Updated daily at OCS.
  • Not ready for prime time
  • Will be handed off in a few months to the
    Southern Regional Climate Center

21
Water Issues
  • Water is a contentious issue
  • Texas has more people than Oklahoma

22
How does it fit in?
23
South-Central Texas
24
Annual Precipitation
25
Spring Precip TX-CD7
26
Summer Precip TX-CD7
27
TX CD7 Temperature
28
TX CD3 Annual Temp
29
Climate Time Series
  • Available on demand (give me a call)?
  • I am confident these will be more accessible in
    the not-too-distant future

30
Thank You for Your Time
  • Deke Arndt
  • Oklahoma Climatological Survey
  • 405-325-2541
  • darndt_at_ou.edu
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