Title: Developing Tools for Understanding and Communicating Drought
1Developing Tools for Understanding and
Communicating Drought
Deke Arndt Associate State Climatologist Oklahoma
Climatological Survey
2Two Things I Can Guarantee
- This drought will end
- There will be another drought
3About the Oklahoma Climate Survey
- Established 1980
- Mandated to collect and disseminate useful
weather and climate information - OCS is also the custodian of the Oklahoma Mesonet
- For drought, we serve data and expertise to the
Oklahoma Water Resources Board - The OWRB is the lead drought-monitoring agency in
the state. They report directly to the Gov.
4About Oklahoma
- Response-based drought plan
- ?
- Monitoring is critical
5About Drought
- Climate information maps strongly to the
financial services sector - Drought is more like baseball
- There are a lot of numbers, statistics and
metrics - It means more because I went through it with my
Dad.
6A Tale of Two Droughts
7Drought 1 1935
8Drought 2 1996
9Lessons Drought 1
CD2 Annual Precip
10Lessons Drought 2
- We didn't speak to each other very well
- Climatologists spent days compiling reports
- Stuff happened slowly
11Deke's Drought-Monitoring Principles
- Drought is a social phenomenon
- Drought is relative in time, space application
- Because drought is inextricably tied to society,
a long-term reference is necessary - New and emerging observational datasets should be
explored - Drought is a multi-faceted issue and requires a
multi-faceted assessment - Deliver drought information, not just drought data
12Mesonet Drought Monitoring
- Tables and graphics provide decision-makers with
a number of data sources and choices (7 days per
week)? - Designed to help non-scientists better
assimilate complex information using past
experiences
13Daily Drought Monitoring
14Daily Drought Monitoring
15Fire Danger Model Burning Index
16Time/Depth Scales of Soil Moisture
Fractional Water Index at 75 cm Ending 10/12/03
17Daily Drought Monitoring
- Basic statistics for a traditional view of
precipitation during any season - Total Precipitation
- Departure from Normal Precipitation
- Percent of Normal Precipitation
18Daily Drought Monitoring
- These columns use historical archives to put
this season's total in perspective - Driest Since and Wettest Since refer to
recent history (which is more memorable)? - Rankings indicate how this season fits into
history
19Daily Drought Monitoring
Index values help specific users see the subtext
of the current episode Implications FWI
agriculture KBDI fire management SPI the
unusualness of a current event
20Texas Early Last Week
- Updated daily at OCS.
- Not ready for prime time
- Will be handed off in a few months to the
Southern Regional Climate Center
21Water Issues
- Water is a contentious issue
- Texas has more people than Oklahoma
22How does it fit in?
23South-Central Texas
24Annual Precipitation
25Spring Precip TX-CD7
26Summer Precip TX-CD7
27TX CD7 Temperature
28TX CD3 Annual Temp
29Climate Time Series
- Available on demand (give me a call)?
- I am confident these will be more accessible in
the not-too-distant future
30Thank You for Your Time
- Deke Arndt
- Oklahoma Climatological Survey
- 405-325-2541
- darndt_at_ou.edu