The State of Nature

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The State of Nature

• Assessing the trends
• Population, Consumption and Technology
• The end of more?

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Indicators of state of nature

• Population growth
• Food production
• Energy consumption
• Deforestation
• Species extinctions
• Desertification
• Fresh water shortage
• Ozone depletion
• Climate change

3
The State of Nature

• E P x C x T (or I PAT)
• Human population growth
• Agricultural revolution
• Industrial Revolution
• 1 billion in 1800 6 billion now
• The Population Bomb
• Rule of 72
• Malthusians vs. Cornucopians
• UN prediction 10 billion by 2050
• A note on population density
• Into the fray Demographic transition theory
• Is affluence the solution?

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Consumption

• How much do we need?
• Hunter-gatherers compared to Americans
• 2500 vs. 192,000 kcals.
• 40 of Earth's primary productivity supports
  humanity
• Have's have-nots
• North compared to South
• Avg American footprint ? 20 Indians
• or 50 sub-Saharan Africans
• Analogy Nora and Sams well
• Can affluence be globalized?
• Do ethics matter?

6
Technology

• Fossil fuel-based economy
• Coal, oil, natural gas
• Primacy of oil
• Environmental effects
• Atmospheric pollution
• Marine pollution
• Deforestation, destruction of local habitat
• Renewables solar, wind, hydrogen
• Can technology save us?

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An example Carbon sequestration

• Virgin Earth Challenge 25 million for techs
  to capture 1 billion tons carbon/year
• Some candidates
• Iron fertilization of the oceans
• Bioengineering bacteria to eat CO2
• Land-based algae tanks
• Biocharcoal
• www.esperida.com