U'S' Nuclear Weapons and Nonproliferation: Dispelling the Myths

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U.S. Nuclear Weapons and Nonproliferation
Dispelling the Myths

• Dr. Kerry M. KartchnerU.S. Department of State
• Bureau of International Security and
  Nonproliferation
• Carnegie Moscow Center2 February 2007

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Overview

• Five Myths of Nuclear Disarmament
• Current directions in U.S. nuclear weapons policy

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The Five Myths of Nuclear Disarmament

• U.S. security posture continues to rely heavily
  on nuclear forces.
• The U.S. is not reducing the numbers of nuclear
  weapons in its arsenal, or is not reducing them
  fast enough.
• The U.S. is building new, more dangerous nuclear
  weapons.
• U.S. nuclear weapons policy is lowering the
  nuclear threshold by placing emphasis on
  preemption.
• Failure to reduce nuclear forces and sign new
  arms control agreements encourages proliferation.

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Myth 1 U.S. Security Posture Continues to Rely
Heavily on Nuclear Forces
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Reality Nuclear weapons much less important in
current U.S. strategy
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Reality Other Indications of Reduced Emphasis
on Nuclear Weapons

• Reduced budget for deployed nuclear forces.
• Reduced allocation of manpower to nuclear policy
  issues.
• Both the Office of the Secretary of Defense and
  the U.S. Department of State have disbanded their
  offices devoted to strategic nuclear policy
  issues.
• Less attention by senior policymakers.

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Reality Nuclear forces not on hair trigger
alert

• Missiles no longer targeted on a day-to-day basis
• Bombers no longer on nuclear alert
• Multiple-warhead land-based missiles being
  reduced significantly
• Major portion of much reduced deterrent on
  survivable submarines

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Reality Nuclear weapons have reduced role in
U.S. forces
Cold War Nuclear Triad (1945 1991)
New Strategic Triad (2001 - )
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Myth 2 The U.S. is not reducing the numbers of
nuclear weapons in its arsenal
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Reality U.S. strategic nuclear forces are being
reduced by 80
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Reality U.S. non-strategic nuclear forces have
been reduced by 90

• All non-strategic nuclear weapons removed from
  surface ships, submarines, and naval aircraft
  bases.
• All nuclear artillery shells, Lance missile
  warheads, and naval nuclear depth bombs withdrawn
  and retired.
• In 2003, the last of 3,000 tactical nuclear
  warheads dismantled under 1991 Presidential
  Nuclear Initiatives.

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Reality The U.S. nuclear weapons stockpile is
being reduced to historic low
In May of last year, President Bush announced
plans to reduce our nations nuclear weapons
stockpile by nearly half, to its smallest size
since the Eisenhower era. -- Secretary of
Energy Bodman, November 2005
The Department of Energys nuclear weapons
complex, once focused on weapons development and
production, reduced 40 since 1980s and refocused
on nuclear weapon dismantlement and facility
clean-up
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Reality Entire classes of delivery systems have
been eliminated
Example MX Peacekeeper Missile
Last Missile RetiredSeptember 2005
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Reality Entire classes of warheads have been
eliminated
Nuclear Weapon Types Retired since 1992 Mk 28
Bomb Mk 43 Bomb W-50 Warhead W-68 Warhead W-85
Warhead W-33 Artillery Shell W-48 Artillery
Shell W-70 Warhead W-71 Warhead W-79 Artillery
Shell W-56 Warhead Mk-57 Bomb W-69 Warhead
ExampleW-56 Warhead for Minuteman Missiles
Last Warhead Dismantled June 2006
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Reality Nuclear material has been removed from
weapon use

• In 1994, 174 MT of highly-enriched uranium (HEU)
  was permanently removed from U.S. nuclear weapons
  program.
• 17.4 MT will be down blended for U.S. fuel bank,
  announced by Secretary Bodman.
• In 2005, an additional 200 MT of HEU was
  permanently removed from U.S. nuclear weapons
  program.
• Total HEU removal is equivalent to 14,900 nuclear
  warheads.

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Reality Nuclear weapons material is no longer
being produced

• Weapons grade HEU --
• production halted in 1964
• Weapon plutonium --production halted in 1988
• Hanford and Savannah River plutonium production
  reactors shut down by 1992

Hanfords F Reactor completely dismantled in
2003
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Myth 3 The U.S. Is Developing New, More
Dangerous Weapons
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Reality The U.S. is canceling systems, not
producing new ones
W-89 nuclear warhead canceled 1991 B-90 nuclear
bomb canceled 1991 W-91 nuclear warhead
canceled 1991
The United States is not developing, testing,
or producing any nuclear warheads and has not
done so in more than a decade. - Ambassador
Jackie W. Sanders, May 2005
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Reality One system currently in design will
allow more reductions

• Reliable Replacement Warhead
• Currently in design phase.
• Will not represent new military capabilities.
• Will minimize need to resume underground nuclear
  tests.
• Will incorporate modern safety and manufacturing
  techniques.
• Enhanced confidence in RRW will allow further
  reductions in stockpile.

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Myth 4 U.S. nuclear weapons policy is lowering
the nuclear threshold.
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Reality Threshold of nuclear use remains high

• Nuclear weapons remain instruments of last
  resort.
• Circumstances under which nuclear weapons might
  be employed are narrowing.
• Declaratory policy retains high threshold of
  nuclear release.
• Presumption of non-use or the nuclear taboo
  remains strong in U.S. strategic culture.

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Reality Missile defenses will raise nuclear
threshold

• Missile defenses buy time in a crisis.
• Missile defenses offer additional options besides
  preemption or retaliation.
• Missile defenses offer alternatives to nuclear
  options.
• Missile defenses reduce reliance on offensive
  strike options.

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Myth 5 Lack of New Arms Control Agreements
Encourages Proliferation
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Reality Proliferation despite disarmament

• Moscow Treaty
• Natanz Esfahan sites exposed
• DPRK withdraws from NPT
• Documents on Al-Qaeda weapons program, including
  for a nuclear device, found in Kabul

U.S. stops nuclear testing

• Missiles de-targeted
• Iran Shipments of 500 P1 components through Khan
  network

START Treaty
1990 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 2000 01
02 03 04 05 06

• 3,000 tactical weapons dismantled
• DPRK withdraws from NPT

DPRK launches Taepo Dong II
President Bush directs halving of stockpile
Last Peacekeeper missile retired DPRK announces
it has nuclear weapons
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Reality Proliferation despite disarmament,
continued

• Over the past decade we have seen very
  significant reductions in the numbers of U.S.
  nuclear weapons, reductions in the alert levels
  of nuclear forces, and the abandonment of U.S.
  nuclear testing. No new warheads have been
  deployed and there has been little U.S. nuclear
  modernization. There is absolutely no evidence
  that these developments have caused North Korea
  or Iran to slow down covert programs to acquire
  capabilities to produce nuclear weapons. On the
  contrary, those programs have accelerated during
  this period.
• -- Ambassador Linton Brooks, Former Under
  Secretary of Energy for Nuclear Security and
  Administrator, National Nuclear Security
  Administration, March 2004

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Current Directions

• U.S. remains committed to upholding its NPT
  Article VI obligations.
• Modest progress in implementing New Triad.
• Nuclear and Conventional Strike
• Active and Passive Defenses
• Responsive Infrastructure
• New emphasis on counter-proliferation and
  consequence management through multilateral
  initiatives.

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Conclusion
The United States remains firmly committed to
its obligations under the NPT. Our record
demonstrates this commitment, including the
Moscow Treaty concluded in 2002. The United
States will continue to play a leading role in
strengthening the nonproliferation regime. We
have undertaken concrete actions and made several
proposals to strengthen the NPT, the IAEA, and
the broader nonproliferation regime. - President
George Bush, 7 March 2005
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Questionsor Comments?